Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Supply Lines: January deadlines

While much of the world braces for US Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, there's another date that month that's heaping uncertainty on the global

While much of the world braces for US Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, there's another date that month that's heaping uncertainty on the global economy.

Jan. 15th is the deadline for dockworkers on America's East and Gulf coasts to reach a  deal on a new contract with their employers. Failing to do so means a repeat of the strike that halted operations in early October — a shutdown that lasted only three days but showed how quickly bottlenecks form when cargo handlers stay home from work for better pay and job security.

Read More: Trump Tariff Plans Expected to Deliver High Drama, Bumpy Rollout

The thorniest issues are still unresolved, as Bloomberg's Laura Curtis reports today. When the International Longshoremen's Association and US Maritime Alliance agreed on a 62% pay raise in order to suspend the strike in early October, they left more difficult issues like automation for after the US election.

Look no further then Canada for the latest example of the chaos shuttered ports can create very quickly.

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government directed an independent labor board to end lockouts at Canada's largest ports. It was a highly unusual move, and while necessary to limit economic damage, it could further damage the Liberal government's relations with labor groups.

Read More: A $2 Trillion Reckoning Looms as Ports Become Pawns in Geopolitics

If there's no deal by Jan. 15 in the US, President-elect Donald Trump may face similar economic and political tradeoffs — support union members against their Asia- and Europe-based employers, or side with companies arguing that they're trying to modernize inefficient US ports with automated equipment that's standard in most other major trading powers.

On the campaign trail, Trump sounded sympathetic to the dockworkers' fight.

"American workers should be able to negotiate for better wages, especially since the shipping companies are mostly foreign flag vessels," Trump said during their strike last month. At a separate event, Trump said the dockworkers "also don't want to see certain new technologies, which in many cases don't work very well."

Brendan Murray in London

Click here for more of Bloomberg.com's most-read stories about trade, supply chains and shipping.

Charted Territory

Uneven road ahead | Donald Trump's election victory has catapulted US stocks to fresh records and pushed the dollar to a two-year high. It's anything but good news for the rest of the world. Equities excluding the US are tumbling, with an MSCI gauge capping its worst day since the Aug. 5 global rout. An index of developing-market currencies has lost more than 1% following the US election, coming close to erasing this year's gains. European stocks and the euro have flopped. 

Today's Must Reads

  • Stanley Black & Decker is considering raising prices in response to higher tariffs it expects to be imposed by President-elect Donald Trump's administration.
  • Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned that Donald Trump's threatened trade levies risk derailing the German economy. Separately, Europe needs to strengthen its autonomy and improve its competitiveness following Trump's re-election, Greece's Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said in an interview
  • The heads of some of Asia's biggest airlines said the long delays in the deliveries of brand new aircraft and supplies of spare parts are unfairly forcing them to deal with operational challenges, and consequently angry customers. 
  • In this Talking Transports podcast, Ed Elkins, Norfolk Southern's chief marketing officer, shares his insights about how the company is making progress toward its long-term goals of generating a sub-60 operating ratio. Today's Big Take Asia Podcast unpacks what a second Trump term means for China, India and other Asian economies.
  • The premier of Canada's largest province wants the country to negotiate its own trade agreement with the US, unless Mexico aligns itself with its North American partners on Chinese imports.
  • Nigeria is seeking a $5 billion trade facility from Saudi Arabia to shore up capital for its economic reform program.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • Maersk says equipment downtime is the leading cause reducing productivity and driving port congestion in South Africa.
  • China indicated its discomfort with yuan weakness through its daily reference rate for the currency amid the threat of higher US tariffs under a new Trump administration.
  • Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints. 
  • For freight dashboards, see {BI RAIL}, {BI TRCK} and {BI SHIP} and {BI 3PLS}
  • Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
  • On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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