*Performance since 7/1/2022. For more details on the performance calculation and methodology of Alpha Picks, click here. |
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► The major US stock indices had a mixed performance this week, with the S&P 500 falling 0.1%, the Nasdaq 100 sliding 0.2%, and the DOW remaining mostly flat amid fluctuating economic signals. |
► US CPI data matched October forecasts; headline was up 0.2%, while core rose 0.3%. US initial jobless claims fell to their lowest since May, decreasing by 4,000 to 217,000, driven by healthy labor demand despite recent storms and worker strikes.
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► Treasury yields saw a modest decline, with the 10-year yield falling by three basis points to 4.42%, suggesting higher odds for a December Fed rate cut. |
► Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced notable movements, with Bitcoin notching a new record of +$93,400 on Wednesday. |
► Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East add complexity to the global oil supply chain, resulting in fluctuations with potential impacts on energy markets as investors weigh the risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz. |
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Alpha Picks is a rigorous, data-driven model that offers Strong Buy-rated stocks believed to have the highest probability of capital appreciation based on a proprietary quantitative model. Two Strong Buy-rated stocks are selected monthly on the first trading day of the month and the 15th or the closest trading day thereafter. |
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Global Market Movements and Sector Performance |
Trump Bump and Global Market Reactions |
The 'Trump Bump' phenomenon has persisted since the election, positively impacting domestic-focused equities and cryptocurrency. Since Trump's re-election, Bitcoin has surged to an all-time high of over $93,000, amid expectations of favorable crypto regulation and a push to make the US a top crypto hub. Read More. |
Geopolitical Events: Tariffs |
The geopolitical landscape remains tense, as Iran's increased involvement in oil production presents potential risks to global supplies. Approximately 20% of the world's oil trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage in the Middle East, making any disruption a significant global concern for energy and price volatility. Read More. |
Communication Services (XLC) was the top-performing sector over the last week and has been a top-performer over the last month. Post-election, the Consumer Discretionary (XLY) sector has experienced an uptick of more than 4% as we approach Black Friday next week. Read More. |
While growth stocks continued to outperform value stocks, small caps have outperformed large caps over the last month, boosted by investor confidence post-election. Read More. |
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The cryptocurrency market saw a week of volatility, with Bitcoin (BTC-USD) shedding 0.8% and falling to $87,889.23. This reflects regulatory uncertainties and broader market corrections following initial rallies. Read More. |
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The US dollar continued to strengthen over the last week, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) up nearly 2%. Over the last month, the USD has substantially outperformed all other major currencies. Read More. |
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Inflation moved away from the Federal Reserve's target, with CPI rising to 2.6% y/y in October. Shelter held at +4.9%, adding 1.8 percentage points to the increase. |
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► FOMC – The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points at its November 7th meeting, signaling the potential for further cuts depending on inflation management and economic conditions.
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► Inflation – Inflation continues to show instability, with the recent CPI report indicating slight upticks; headline was up 0.2%, while core rose 0.3%, suggesting potential discussions around rate cut pauses at upcoming FOMC meetings.
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► Labor Market – Employment data showed strength, with jobless claims hitting a new low since May, reflecting a robust labor market despite recent sector-specific layoffs. The upcoming jobs report will be closely watched for any signs of changes in labor market dynamics.
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| Trip Group Limited (TCOM) |
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| Walmart Inc. (WMT)
Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) Medtronic plc (MDT) |
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| NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) |
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| Intuit Inc. (INTU) Deere & Company (DE) |
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*Performance is as of November 15, 2024. Alpha Picks adds two stocks per month - on the closest business day to the 1st & 15th. Alpha Picks removes stocks based on rating thresholds (i.e., when a rating changes to a sell). Performance is calculated and reported daily using time-weighted returns. For more details on the performance calculation and methodology of Alpha Picks, click here.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Alpha Picks does not take account of your objectives or your financial situation and does not offer any personalized investment advice. Any content and tools on the platform are offered for information purposes only. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker, US investment adviser, or investment bank. |
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