| This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a short-term transactional win for Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. On Sundays, we look at the major themes of the week past and how they will define the week ahead. Sign up for the daily newsletter here. During the first Donald Trump administration, I spent a fair amount of time trying to find foreign policy mandarins to write and talk about how the president's foreign policy "just isn't that bad." Such as this interview with Ambassador Robert Blackwill entitled, well, "Trump's Foreign Policy Just Isn't That Bad." Piece of cake, right? Well, not exactly. For me and many others, such giddiness has worn off the second time around: Let's face it: "China First" is just code for "Abandon Ukraine First"; railing at US allies for being free-riders loses its sting when nearly all are spending on defense at record levels; a certain zillionaire gets a party line on phone calls shaping the future of Europe; a Fox News talking head who thinks a woman's place is in the rear echelons is handed $1 trillion to defend the nation; and the idea that Israel, embroiled in wars to north and south, will be safer for annexing the West Bank is being taken seriously. I concede that Trump has one thing right: China is one of the two biggest threats to the US-led global order. The problem is that other one is Trump himself. Take it from the people who are out there in the worried world, like Minxin Pei. "Most observers expect that the biggest clash between China and a US led once again by Trump will involve trade," he writes. "What should keep both Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping awake at night, however, isn't trade — it's Taiwan." The insomnia could get worse if Taiwan's government makes a massive purchase of US weapons such as F-35 fighters and Aegis destroyers. "Although China is unlikely to invade, it could dramatically ratchet up its gray-zone activities to disrupt Taiwanese shipping and air travel," Minxin warns. "Egged on by hawks and eager to prove his toughness, Trump will be tempted to dispatch a large US force to the region, risking a standoff reminiscent of the Cuban Missile Crisis more than six decades ago." As for the trade war at the center of things, why bother? "This isn't the same China that greeted Trump after his first win in 2016," writes Daniel Moss. "The economy, once widely believed on a course to knock the US off its perch as the preeminent commercial power, has since revealed some acute vulnerabilities that don't seem to be going away. And the president-elect seems to be gearing up for a trade war he no longer needs to fight."  Trump's war on renewable energy also plays into Xi's hands, according to David Fickling. "China is more or less a high-income economy these days, making it harder to find common ground with the developing countries it would like to enlist as partners against the US-led world order," David explains. "Its solar, battery and electric-vehicle exports, however, give it an opportunity to provide emerging economies with the energy abundance they need to grow. A green Marshall Plan for the Global South would offer a potent source of soft power, something Beijing has singularly failed to deploy in the Xi era." Hmmm, it's almost like it's a conspiracy or something: Any stone that hits China will have ripple effects across the Pacific. "Indonesia, for decades a natural partner to the US because of similar defense priorities and democratic values, has in recent years drifted more toward China, drawn by its economic support," writes Karishma Vaswani. "A potentially more insular American foreign policy under Trump is pushing Jakarta even closer to Beijing ... but it isn't clear how much and what kind of engagement Trump will have with Southeast Asia's largest economy, under what is likely to be a haphazard foreign policy approach." Things are already haphazard in traditionally calm Japan, giving new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba no time for napping. "Now the increasingly unpopular premier must deal with the return of Trump, a man who once said the only thing he liked about Japan was that people bow instead of shaking hands," writes Gearoid Reidy. After three years of record stability in the Japan-US alliance, it injects a new level of chaos into a relationship crucial for regional peace." That chaos won't be limited to the Pacific Rim. First, we'll look westward. "A tough-on-trade Trump won't leave India unscathed. There's plenty of reason to suspect that the incoming administration will push New Delhi hard on behalf of US technology firms," writes Andy Mukherjee. "A multi-cornered contest in which US tech leaders are lobbying Washington for access, but some Indian enterprises are pushing New Delhi for a restricted market while others are pitching on behalf of their Chinese partners, can get messy. Instead of inadvertently bringing business interests in the rivals closer together, it's probably best if Trump lets Modi sort out the slowdown in the domestic economy first." Second, eastward. "Trump comes with radical ideas that threaten to destabilize Latin America, including the unprecedented deportation of millions of migrants back to the region and the imposition of harsh tariffs that would disrupt trade flows," writes Juan Pablo Spinetto. "As dear as these policies are to him and his political base, their implementation would be a heaven-sent gift to China, which is South America's biggest trading partner: With four of the five biggest economies in the region run by leftist governments, the opportunity to counterbalance Trump's offensive by getting closer to Beijing and its companies is obvious and almost unavoidable — to Washington's pain." So much for the physical world — Catherine Thorbecke thinks Trump's greatest gift to China could be in the virtual one. "Trump's looming second trade war could also have major consequences for US technology companies with exposure to China, though these likely won't be even," she writes. "Firms on both sides should brace for a bumpy next four years, but over the longer term it's likely that Trump's antagonism of allies, cozy relationship with Xi Jinping, and transactional approach could provide opportunities for Beijing's broader ambitions … The president-elect's past policies didn't stymie Beijing's high-tech ambitions. And while Trump is caught up with short-term and transactional wins, Xi has been laser-focused on coming out on top in the long run." In a rambling 2015 speech that touched on $15 million apartments, Tom Brady and the George Washington Bridge, Trump insisted, "People say you don't like China. No, I love them. But their leaders are much smarter than our leaders." Bloomberg's columnists leave little doubt that, nearly a decade later, that tirade looks more prescient than ever. Bonus Trade Mistakes Reading: - Pete Hegseth Is Too Much Culture Warrior to Be Defense Secretary — Andreas Kluth
- The Wealthy Will Shield Asian Banks From Trump Tariffs — Andy Mukherjee
- Donald Trump Will Occupy Much of Keir Starmer's Bandwidth — Martin Ivens
What's the World Got in Store? - Hong Kong activists sentencing, Nov. 19: China's Cops Are Coming to a City Near You — Karishma Vaswani
- Nvidia earnings. Nov. 20: Masayoshi Son Is Trying to Make Up for Past Mistakes — Catherine Thorbecke
- Cop29 ends, Nov. 22: Trump's EPA: Less Protecting the Environment, More Drilling — Liam Denning
So, will America First 2.0 be an unmitigated disaster? A couple of my colleagues are holding out hope for at least a smidgen of mitigation. "The Middle East has long been a source of misery for Washington. It could be a land of opportunity for Donald Trump," writes Hal Brands. "In his first term as president, Trump brokered diplomatic détentes between Israel and several Arab states. In his second, he'll encounter a region in which Israeli military successes have dramatically reset the balance of power. That creates the possibility for a bold play to roll back Iran's influence and curb its nuclear program — if Trump can avoid stumbling into another Middle Eastern mess." "Donald Trump says he can end Russia's invasion of Ukraine in a day, and he'll soon be in the White House to prove it. It isn't impossible, it just depends on which day," writes Marc Champion. "But short of capitulating to Moscow, the dramatic resolution he wants is conceivable only if he starts laying groundwork now and drops his fanboy approach to Vladimir Putin." Meanwhile, Putin is laying the groundwork to seize Ukraine's coal and lithium: "Trump doesn't actually need to do much to ensure that he and Ukraine are in a stronger negotiating position after he's inaugurated. For that he can thank US President Joe Biden, who's said he'll push through the rest of the $5 billion he authorized for Ukraine by the end of his term," adds Marc. "All the incoming president needs to do is hold tight while he develops a clear plan to help stabilize the front, encourage Europe to overmatch the US effort and project a message of strength and commitment that his friend in the Kremlin takes seriously. It's up to him. The Kremlin, Beijing, Tehran, Pyongyang and US allies around the world will be watching his every move." The second time around, will anybody still be able to say, "Trump's foreign policy just isn't that bad"? Notes: Please send Indian tomatoes and feedback to Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net. | 
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