Friday, November 1, 2024

Next Africa: A political dynasty ends

Botswana's ruling party lost power for the first time in 58 years

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Seismic political change has rocked Botswana, best known as home to the world's biggest population of elephants and huge diamond reserves.

President Mokgweetsi Masisi conceded defeat in its parliamentary election, ending the Botswana Democratic Party's hold on power maintained since the country won independence from the UK in 1966.

The Umbrella for Democratic Change has enough seats to take control of the legislature — against earlier expectations. 

UDC supporters at a counting center in Gaborone on Thursday. Photographer: Monirul Bhuyan/AFP/Getty Images

With a reputation for holding regular, peaceful elections, the southern African nation has never garnered much attention. But its economic transformation has been remarkable. 

At independence, the largely desert country had just a few miles of tarred roads. Today, after the discovery of diamonds by De Beers in 1967, it's one of Africa's richest nations on a per-capita basis and has the continent's top credit rating. 

But Botswana's dependence on those diamonds, which it mines in a partnership with the world's biggest gem company, have cost Masisi power.  

A prolonged slump in prices for the stones has crimped government revenue, seen the economy contract and drained government savings. These factors have heightened focus on the BDP's failure to diversify economic activity in a nation that — despite its riches — has an unemployment rate of about 28%.

Duma Boko, who leads the UDC, enticed support with bold campaign promises that may be hard to fulfil — at least 400,000 jobs within five years (the total population is about 2.4 million) and cutting both water and electricity tariffs by 30% despite a shortage of both. 

The swift acceptance of the defeat by Masisi is a sign of political maturity. It will be a shock to investors such as De Beers, though, who have dealt with the same partners for decades.

The gem giant's catch phrase is "a diamond is forever." Masisi's BDP has learned that political power isn't.

Key stories and opinion:  
Diamond-Market Crash Drives Seismic Political Shift in Botswana
Shock Vote Outcome Ends Botswana Ruling Party's 58-Year Rule 
Botswana Says It's in Talks About Increasing Stake in De Beers
Second Giant Diamond in Weeks Found at Lucara's Botswana Mine
Botswana Touts 24% Stake in New Mining Companies for Citizens 

Bloomberg is looking for the most innovative startups in Africa. Applications are open until Nov. 8. Click on the image for details. Illustrator: Diana Ejaita

News Roundup

Mozambicans are bracing for more political turmoil following an opposition leader's call for a week of protests against what he said was a rigged vote. Standard Bank's unit there said its branches didn't open on Thursday, while television footage showed roads in Maputo, the capital, were unusually quiet. Access to social media and messaging platforms was cut off. Separately, the Mozambique ship-financing scandal that rocked Credit Suisse continues to haunt its new owner UBS Group, after Swiss prosecutors revealed they opened a criminal probe late last year.

Protesters with a poster of opposition candidate Venâncio Mondlane in Maputo, the capital, on Oct. 24. Photographer: Alfedo Zuniga/Getty Images

South Africa's budget update showed public finances are under increasing pressure, heightening the need for the new coalition government to lure more investment to the region's biggest economy. The fiscal deficit is expected to widen to 5% of gross domestic product in the year through March, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana said. That's up from 4.5% projected in February, and higher than most economists predicted. 

A Kenyan court rejected a bid to block the appointment of President William Ruto's new deputy. A three-judge bench set aside an earlier order that prevented Interior Minister Kithure Kindiki from being sworn in as Kenya's second in command until a court decided whether a decision to impeach Rigathi Gachagua was lawful. His impeachment was the first of a deputy president since the adoption of a new constitution in 2010.

P R Sanjai, a senior Bloomberg reporter in Mumbai, and Helen Nyambura in Nairobi join Jennifer Zabasajja to explain why East Africa is such an important investment region for Gautam Adani, one of India's richest people.

Emmanuel Macron looked to smooth often-strained relations with Morocco in a visit to the former protectorate that included signing deals potentially worth up to €10 billion. In an impassioned address to Moroccan lawmakers, the French president lauded ties between the two nations, noting that "Morocco will always play a singular role, as a gateway to Africa." The trip was his third to the North African kingdom since being elected to office in 2017.

Nigeria's biggest bank is opening a new branch in Hong Kong in its first step of Asian expansion. Access Bank's push into the Chinese territory comes amid growing tension between the US and China and increased support for Africa from Beijing. Meanwhile, Nigeria's upstream oil regulator found some issues with Shell's proposed sale of its onshore assets to a group of local companies but they should be resolved soon, said Olu Verheijen, President Bola Tinubu's special adviser on energy.

Gas flares burn from pipes at an oil flow station in Idu, Nigeria. Photographer: George Osodi/Bloomberg

Africa-focused online retailer Jumia Technologies and Hepsiburada, one of Turkey's largest e-commerce platforms, have agreed to jointly expand their offerings across Africa. Hepsiburada will work with Berlin-based Jumia to roll out Turkish brands, private-label and retail products. Also, Moniepoint, a Nigerian cash-transfer startup, raised $110 million in an equity sale to expand in home market and across Africa.

Next Africa Quiz — Which country postponed plans to send two strategic bombers to South Africa as a display of defense cooperation after members of the opposition criticized the plan? Send your answers to gbell16@bloomberg.net.

Past & Prologue

Data Watch

  • Kenya's annual inflation rate fell to 2.7% in October, the lowest level since at least 2010, after fuel, food and utility price growth eased. 
  • Zambian inflation climbed to the fastest in almost three years — 15.7% — in October as the nation's worst drought on record kept prices of meat, corn and cereals sticky.  
  • South Africa is unlikely to have a new inflation target or binding fiscal anchor by February's budget, as more work still needs to be done to achieve political consensus, Godongwana said. 
  • Ethiopia is more than doubling its revenue target amid an International Monetary Fund financing program that sets out several conditions to reform East Africa's biggest economy.

Coming Up

  • Nov. 5 October PMI reports for Mozambique, Uganda, South Africa, Kenya, Zambia and Ghana; interest-rate decisions in Madagascar and Cape Verde
  • Nov. 7 South Africa gold and foreign-currency reserves for October & electricity consumption for September; Namibia and Mauritius inflation and reserves data for October; Botswana, Malawi and Democratic Republic of Congo interest-rate decisions
  • Nov. 8 October inflation for Seychelles and Tanzania

Quote of the Week

"Ethiopia deserves sea access according to any law. We are confident that our children and grandchildren will eventually realize this goal." 
Abiy Ahmed
Ethiopian prime minister
Abiy addressed lawmakers on the issue this week. He sparked a diplomatic furor in January when he announced his administration plans to establish a naval base in Somaliland in return for considering granting the semi-autonomous region recognition as a sovereign state.

Last Word

South African farmers will barely increase the land allocated to plant corn for next year's crop, exacerbating a shortage after the harvest slumped by a quarter to a five-year low this year. Commercial growers plan to plant 2.64 million hectares (6.5 million acres) of land, only fractionally more than the current season. The crop harvested this year in South Africa, the continent's biggest producer of the grain, fell as the El Niño weather phenomenon scorched fields with unseasonably dry and hot weather. While the expected La Niña event, which usually causes above-normal rainfall in the country and its neighbors, could make for a better haul in 2025, it's likely to be a late season, according to Wandile Sihlobo, the chief economist at the country's agricultural business chamber.

A truck drives through a harvested corn field on the Ehlerskroon farm in Mpumalanga province. Photographer: Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg

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