Friday, November 15, 2024

In Donald Trump’s shadow

US foreign policy is already moving ahead without Joe Biden.

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As Joe Biden prepares to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping tomorrow, there's a sense that US foreign policy is already moving ahead without him.

In Israel, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has shrugged off the US president's appeals to limit civilian casualties in Lebanon and Gaza, the focus is squarely on the incoming administration of Donald Trump.

Trump, who in his first term moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, equates to carte blanche in the eyes of the Israeli government's right-wing faction. Its members advocate seizing the moment to impose sovereignty over the occupied West Bank and strike Iran's nuclear program.

Yet some Israeli media report that Trump wants Netanyahu to end the wars, potentially opening the path to the kind of grand deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia he has long favored.

Equally, Elon Musk, who's emerging as the president-elect's right-hand man, met with Iranian diplomats at the United Nations in New York this week to discuss dialing back tensions with the US, the New York Times reported.

WATCH: What Elon Musk wants from Donald Trump.

Over at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Peru, despite Biden's presence, the talk among leaders has been about the impending shakeup in the global order.

Vietnam's new president, Luong Cuong, took a swipe at Trump's approach to tariffs, denouncing "isolationists, protectionism and trade wars."

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese made a pitch to lead on clean energy and technology, occupying the space expected soon to be vacated by the US under Trump, a climate-change skeptic.

Biden can still try to use his remaining weeks in office to nail down his foreign policy legacy, especially in areas like helping Ukraine's defense against Russia which Trump threatens to overturn.

In his meeting with Xi, Biden will stress the need to maintain "stability, clarity, predictability," according to National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.

None of which are qualities associated with Trump or his worldview.

Law enforcement officers near the Governmental Palace in Lima, Peru, yesterday. Photographer: Manuel Orbegozo/Bloomberg

Global Must Reads

Trump ruled out giving a post to JPMorgan Chase's Jamie Dimon in his second-term administration in a jab at the prominent Wall Street chief executive officer, while he named prominent vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Service. Dimon suggested to attendees of the APEC CEO Summit that if they want to assess the prospects of Trump carrying out his threat to impose widespread tariffs on American imports they should read his book, The Art of the Deal.

Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake's coalition won a historic parliamentary supermajority, taking more than two-thirds of the 225 seats that would allow it to amend the constitution. The election result highlighted widespread support for the leftist leader who has pledged to combat corruption and change the terms of an unpopular International Monetary Fund bailout.

Dissanayake, center left, greets people after casting his ballot in Colombo yesterday. Photographer: Ishara S. Kodikara/AFP/Getty Images

Russia backs the Paris Agreement on climate action and hopes Trump will keep the US in the landmark accord, a Kremlin envoy told us in an interview at the COP29 summit in Azerbaijan. Trump has vowed to again withdraw the world's second-largest polluter from the agreement — as happened during his first term — potentially undermining global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said the UK's crackdown on banks after the global financial crisis has gone too far and vowed to give the nation's watchdogs new orders to ensure they're focused on supporting the economy. The UK economy cooled by more than expected in the third quarter after a surprise contraction in September, the Office for National Statistics said today.

New Delhi is grappling with very poor air quality for a third day, forcing officials in the Indian capital to impose traffic curbs and order schools to switch to online classes. The world's second most-populated metropolitan area that's home to about 33 million people, New Delhi is among the worst-polluted cities due to a combination of vehicle emissions, agricultural fires and low seasonal wind speeds.

A South Korean court convicted opposition leader Lee Jae-myung of violating election laws, casting a shadow over the political prospects of a man considered a top contender to be the nation's next president.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called for the mass production of attack drones after Pyongyang accused Seoul of flying unmanned aerial vehicles over its capital in what it called a "war provocation."

Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye will seek to consolidate his grip on power in parliamentary elections on Sunday to help push through a series of reforms needed to steady the government's shaky finances.

Washington Dispatch

While most of the appointments for his incoming administration have been announced by press release, Trump revealed his choice for Secretary of the Interior from the stage at Mar-a-Lago yesterday.

With a showman's flourish, he said the selection of North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, who was in the audience, had been intended for today. Trump had just been introduced by the film star Sylvester Stallone, who likened him to his Rocky Balboa character and said "we've got the second George Washington."

Speaking before Stallone, Argentine President Javier Milei said he considered the president-elect a kindred spirit in the global struggle for liberty and economic prosperity. "Today, the winds of freedom are blowing much stronger," he added, speaking in Spanish at the America First Policy Institute event.

Trump with Milei at Mar-a-Lago in Florida yesterday. Photographer: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Most of the people Trump has named this week must be confirmed by the Senate. Earlier yesterday, the chamber's new majority leader, John Thune, told Fox News that "all options are on the table" to approve them, including allowing them to take their posts without confirmation.

One thing to watch today: Retail sales are expected to record another solid gain in October, boosted by discounts and promotions.

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Chart of the Day

Iran has the world's second-biggest reserves of natural gas, but that's still not enough to keep the lights on this winter. The Persian Gulf nation is facing wide-ranging power outages — including scheduled blackouts across Tehran and other major cities in recent days — as US sanctions restrict investment. It's the latest example of Iran's struggles as it tries to balance domestic energy needs while funding a conflict with Israel.

And Finally

New weather models driven by artificial intelligence are showing signs they can be eerily accurate at predicting storm patterns. When Hurricane Beryl was rushing across the Atlantic basin in July, the forecasting tool made by Google Deepmind, the tech company's AI unit, saw something other models missed. The GraphCast program said it would take a sharp turn away from southern Mexico to southern Texas nearly a week earlier than conventional forecasts did — and it was right.

A satellite image shows Hurricane Helene in the Gulf of Mexico in September. Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Pop quiz (no cheating!) Which country's second-biggest city risks running out of water by the end of the year? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net

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