Monday, November 11, 2024

Climate in the year 2030

What our current trajectory tells us |

Greetings from Baku. Last night climate negotiators secured an early win by agreeing on rules for a United Nations-administered global carbon market. You can read that story — and all of our COP29 coverage — for free on Bloomberg.com.

This morning's newsletter looks at how the far the world is from reaching its 2030 climate goals. The full story is also available for free online. 

Missing the targets 

By Aaron Rutkoff

Thousands of diplomats, scientists, executives and climate watchdogs of every stripe will be joined in Azerbaijan's capital Tuesday by dozens of world leaders as the annual United Nations climate summit kicks into high gear.

If there's a dark subtext to the usual let's-fix-this vibe at COP29, it comes from the unmistakable mismatch between what's needed and what the nearly 200 nations here are actually doing. The major deliverables expected from this two-week summit underscore this gap. Negotiators are supposed to come up with trillions of dollars in additional funding to help poorer nations slash their emissions and protect themselves from the brunt of rising temperatures. National delegations are supposed to prepare more aggressive goals for decarbonizing their economies in the next decade.

In both cases, past performance is not an indicator of future success.

Efforts to summon gigantic pools of climate finance have been marred by chronic shortfalls, and nations are often tardy or timid (or both) on their climate ambitions. This problem — where there's progress, it's rarely enough — is found at almost every level of the climate fight.

That's why the team at Bloomberg Green decided to mark the start of COP29 by taking a closer look at where the world is supposed to be by 2030. We're halfway through a decade that's meant to mark the first giant step towards net zero. But economies and industries have fallen far behind many of their self-imposed targets.

Even where things are good, they're not sufficient. Take a look at the global commitment to triple the amount of renewable energy by 2030. It was the signature achievement of last year's COP28 summit in Dubai, and the rollout of wind and especially solar energy over the last two decades has exceeded even the most optimistic forecasts. But the rate of progress would need to speed up significantly to hit the tripling target on time.

Switch over to the deforestation target for 2030, and things appear far more dire. More than 130 nations accounting for more than 90% of the world's forests agreed in 2021 to reverse deforestation by the end of the decade. Last year's rate of deforestation remains 45% higher than what would be required for the end-of-decade target, according to the Forest Declaration Assessment. Rather than halting deforestation, it's been increasing.

Click the index below to see how much faster things need to go from here, across bellwether indicators from Big Tech and banking to fast fashion and electric vehicles. As part of Bloomberg Green's coverage of COP29, this special data project is free to read for everyone. So is all of our reporting on the ground from the UN climate summit in Baku for the next two weeks.

Read the full article online for free. To get unlimited access to climate and energy news, please subscribe

Technical failure 

1.49C
Using a new method, scientists say the world was this much hotter than in pre-industrial times by the end of 2023. This puts global temperature rise within a hair's breadth of the Paris Agreement limit. 

It's not over yet

"The work to contain climate change is going to continue in the United States with commitment and passion and belief. This is not the end of our fight for a cleaner, safer planet...[T]he fight is bigger than one election, one political cycle and one country."
John Podesta
Senior adviser to President Biden for international climate policy
The top US representative to COP29 defended his country's progress in cutting planet-warming carbon emissions on Monday, insisting that much of it will endure despite President-elect Donald Trump's vow to retreat from the fight against global warming. Read this story online for free.

Also on our radar 

By Jennifer A Dlouhy

Oil and gas producers in the US will for the first time be required to pay for some of their methane emissions under a regulation the Biden administration is set to finalize Tuesday, according to people familiar with the matter.

The congressionally mandated rule is the final piece of a three-part package of methane regulations that would levy penalties of $900 per metric ton for "excess" methane emissions that are above a government threshold. That fee is set to rise to $1,500 per metric ton in 2026.

US officials plan to tout it as evidence of the country's resolve to combat the potent greenhouse gas during a methane-focused meeting Tuesday at COP29, according to the people who requested anonymity because the details are not public. Yet the effort's future is in question with the election of Donald Trump as president. 

Cutting methane emissions is one of the most immediate steps that can be taken to slow the rate of climate change. Methane is estimated to have some 80 times the warming power of carbon dioxide during the first 25 years after it is released into the atmosphere.

Photographer: Mario Tama/Getty Images

Worth a listen

Zero is in Baku this week, where delegates and heads of state from around the world have gathered for COP29. Akshat Rathi tells producer Mythili Rao what's in store in the two weeks ahead, and COP29 President Mukhtar Babyaev explains how Azerbaijan is trying to make the summit a success, despite concerns that NGOs and protesters will have limited access to the proceedings. Listen now, and subscribe on AppleSpotify, or YouTube to get new episodes of Zero every Thursday.

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