Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Brussels Edition: Scholz’s unlikely lifeline

On this side of the Atlantic, there's one person who will be paying particularly close attention to the outcome of the US election: Olaf Scholz.

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

The results of the US election are flowing in. As things stand, the numbers are looking strong for Donald Trump, though votes are still being counted in key swing states and it could take a while to get a final call. Follow our results page here and stay updated via our live blog as our reporters deliver the latest from across America. On this side of the Atlantic, there's one person who will be paying particularly close attention: Olaf Scholz. The German chancellor is locked in his own battle to shore up his ruling coalition, which is coming apart over next year's budget and how best to lift Europe's biggest economy out of its slump. Top officials in the three-party alliance will meet this evening in Berlin for a potentially decisive meeting. Ironically, a Trump victory may work to Scholz's advantage, as the risk of global upheaval could spur his fractious partners to set aside their differences for the sake of stability.

John Ainger

What's Happening

Apple Blow | Apple is set to face the first-ever fine under the EU's new digital antitrust rules for Big Tech, representing an escalation of a clash over the dominance of its App Store. Watchdogs are readying the penalty — which would come hard on the heels of a €1.8 billion fine for similar abuses involving Spotify — after the iPhone maker failed to allow developers to steer users to cheaper deals and offers outside of the App Store, we've learned.

Auto Woes | The troubles rattling Europe's automakers are filtering down through the supply chain. Schaeffler, a German parts maker, said yesterday it will cut about 4,700 jobs in Europe and close two sites. The news comes just a week after Volkswagen unveiled its own historic cost-saving plan.

Climate Bill | Valencia is asking Spain's central government for €31.4 billion to help with rebuilding after floods last week destroyed homes and left at least 200 people dead. At a press conference yesterday, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced €10.6 billion for relief efforts, and promised more cash would follow.

Cheap Energy | Dan Jorgensen, the EU's energy chief designate, has pledged to lower energy prices and end imports of Russian fossil fuel as the bloc pursues its transition to a sustainable economy. He'll have a busy first 100 days once the whole European Commission is confirmed.

Kremlin Kickback | Russia rejected the results of Moldova's election, claiming without evidence that pro-Western President Maia Sandu didn't win the support of a majority of voters in her country. Moldova's chief EU negotiator said that Moscow had pumped around €100 million into efforts to disrupt Sunday's ballot.

Around Europe

Nazi Plot | Eight men suspected of plotting to install a Nazi regime in eastern  Germany were arrested early yesterday morning in a massive police raid. The men are members of the "Saxonian Separatists." Here's what we know.

Taiwan Visit | China condemned a visit by Estonian lawmakers to Taiwan last week as violating its claim over the island. It's the latest point of tension between Beijing and the Baltic nation. In light of such dynamics, Taiwan sees "more pros than cons" in a Trump presidency.

Paris Streets | French drivers have had several years to get used to the idea of avoiding central Paris, but some were likely still caught by surprise to find the city center shut to cars earlier this week. Here's how locals have reacted to Mayor Anne Hidalgo's latest car crackdown.

Koran Burning | A Swedish court handed a four-month prison term to the Danish far-right politician who started a series of Koran burnings that complicated the Nordic country's accession to NATO. Rasmus Paludan strained relations with Turkey by setting fire to the holy book near the country's embassy in Stockholm.

No Show | Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will not attend the COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan this year, marking the first time she'll miss the event since taking office. She won't be alone — other high-profile figures are also sitting this year out.

Chart of the Day

The Russian government's revenue from oil fell by 29% in October from a year earlier due to lower crude prices and higher state payouts to the nation's fuel producers. Oil-related taxes, a key source of financing for Russia's war against Ukraine, shrank to 1.05 trillion rubles (€9.81 billion) last month compared with 1.48 trillion rubles a year ago, according to Bloomberg calculations.

Today's Agenda

All times CET

  • 9 a.m. European parliamentary hearings with commissioner-designates Hadja Lahbib, Maria Luis Albuquerque
  • 2:30 p.m. Hearings with commissioner-designates Jozef Sikela, Costas Kadis
  • 6:30 p.m. Hearings with commissioners-designates Andrius Kubilius, Oliver Varhelyi
  • President Ursula von der Leyen, Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis, Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni meet French Prime Minister Michel Barnier
  • Polish central bank decides on interest rates

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