Tuesday, November 12, 2024

Brussels Edition: No time to lose

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.Germany is headed to the

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

Germany is headed to the polls on Feb. 23 for an early election after the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's unwieldy three-party coalition. The agreement yesterday between Scholz's Social Democrats and the opposition conservatives led by Friedrich Merz moves up the ballot by seven months. There's no time to lose for Europe's largest economy, where the outlook has darkened amid manufacturing weakness, in particular in the car industry. Companies are also contending with the risk of US tariffs once Donald Trump takes office. While opinion polls suggest Merz is the frontrunner, the chancellor isn't giving up. He'll address the lower house of parliament today, where he'll make his case for voters to give him another chance.

Lyubov Pronina

What's Happening

Not Bluffing | Finland's President Alexander Stubb said a call he had with Donald Trump made clear the president-elect needs to be taken seriously when he speaks about ending Russia's war in Ukraine. There's a window of opportunity for such negotiations until Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20, Stubb told us.

Weighing Risks | The ECB plans to demand more information from banks about their exposure to geopolitical risks as supervision head Claudia Buch puts her stamp on the institution, we've heard. Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn told us a December interest-rate cut is likely and further reductions are possible.

Asset Seizure | Kaja Kallas, the nominee for the EU's top foreign policy post, said the bloc should tap some $300 billion in frozen Russian assets directly to fund the rebuilding of war-battered Ukraine. She also said EU sanctions against Russia, currently subject to renewal every six months, should become indefinite until the 27 member states opt to lift them. 

Rolling Back| Meta Platforms is rolling back targeted ads for European users to address EU concerns over its subscription model. Europeans will be able to switch on "less personalized ads" on Facebook and Instagram. Elsewhere, the EU notified Apple that its geo-blocking practices potentially breach consumer protection rules.

Gloomy Billionaires| Several Russian billionaires told us that they don't share the optimism of Vladimir Putin's government about Russia's economy and warn that long-term targets look unreachable. They also see little prospect that the incoming Trump administration will lift sanctions on Russia.

Around Europe

Musk Presence | When Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic had a call with US President-elect Donald Trump on Sunday, Elon Musk was also present, driving home the billionaire's influence in the next administration. Musk also sat in on a call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy last week.

Mining Geopolitics | The €2.6 billion lithium mine in Serbia may be controversial for its environmental impact, but it's a no-brainer for Vucic. Read our latest on how the Serb leader is trying to use the Rio Tinto Group project to edge closer to the EU while juggling ties with Russia and China.

Takeover Criticism |  Germany's new finance minister Joerg Kukies used his first public speech since taking office to voice sharp criticism of the tactics UniCredit employed in building a major stake in Commerzbank. Hostile takeover attempts of stable banks are uncalled for in Europe, he said. Separately, Kukies dismissed fears that Berlin's political turmoil will trigger a funding freeze

Flying Taxi | Chinese conglomerate Geely is in advanced talks to take control of Germany's Volocopter in a deal that would save the flying taxi startup from potential bankruptcy, we have learned. It would slash the startup's valuation from a peak of $1.9 billion in 2022 to about $110 million, following a round of capital injection.

Chart of the Day

Investor confidence in Germany's economy unexpectedly worsened in November after a spate of bad news from the country's industry, the collapse of the three-party government and the election of Donald Trump. An expectations index by the ZEW institute fell to 7.4 from 13.1 the previous month while economists had forecast an increase to 13.2. The prospect for Europe's biggest economy have darkened recently, with the manufacturing sector struggling to escape prolonged malaise and automakers in bracing for new threats including tariffs promised by Trump.

Today's Agenda

All times CET

  • 9 a.m. Remarks by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken
  • 1 p.m. Chancellor Scholz delivers an address to the Bundestag
  • 5 p.m. Parliament debate on EU-US relations in the light of the outcome of the US presidential elections
  • 5 p.m. Rutte press conference with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw
  • 6:10 p.m. Rutte press conference with Polish President Andrzej Duda
  • European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis, Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni meet French Prime Minister Michel Barnier
  • Readout of the College of Commissioners

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