Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Brussels Edition: Confirmation turmoil

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.After a day of frenzied

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

After a day of frenzied activity in the corridors of the bloc's institutions, leaders of the mainstream political parties in the European Parliament failed to reach agreement on confirming the commission yesterday. Socialists threatened to blow up the grand coalition behind the deal for the EU's top jobs last summer after the center-right EPP, pushed by its Spanish delegation, blocked the confirmation of socialist heavyweight Teresa Ribera until she clarifies her role in handling the dramatic floods in Spain, something that will only happen next week. Meanwhile, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni criticized efforts to downgrade her candidate for vice president, Raffaele Fitto. The Parliament's president, Roberta Metsola, called for an accord to have the new commission in place on Dec. 1, "especially when we look at what is happening around the world."

Jorge Valero

What's Happening

Reassuring Message | US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the Biden administration is committed to securing "every dollar we have at our disposal" for Ukraine before Donald Trump takes office. He visited Brussels to focus on ensuring that Kyiv has the resources "to fight effectively in 2025 or to be able to negotiate a peace from a position of strength," he said.

EU Preparedness | French President Emmanuel Macron called on Europe to be prepared for a "world of tariff wars." Speaking alongside Mario Draghi yesterday, he said the region could be hit more strongly by the new team in Washington if the bloc was more complacent toward China. The French leader also called for delaying international banking rules if Trump does it.

Stronger Bloc | Greece's Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis joined those urging Europe to strengthen its autonomy and improve competitiveness following the results of the US elections. He told us he had a "friendly" call with the Republican winner on Monday and saw room for cooperation with the new US administration.

Be Wary | Trump's choice of Fox News host Pete Hegseth as defense secretary was received with concern in Europe. Hegseth, who would be the least experienced leader of the world's most powerful military in decades, had said he didn't think victory in Ukraine would embolden Putin. One European diplomat said such remarks are worrying.

Around Europe

Campaign Clash | German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his conservative challenger Friedrich Merz launched their election bids in the Bundestag as they clashed over who's sowing more disunity in EU's largest economy. Merz's CDU has a big lead in the polls ahead of the Feb. 23 snap vote.

Bleak Horizon | Germany's economic malaise will likely continue next year as underlying problems add to cyclical weakness. The GDP is set to increase by 0.4% in 2025 compared with 0.9% expected in May, according to the Council of Economic Experts advising Scholz. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned that Trump's tariffs risk could cost 1% of German economic output.

Corruption Case | The former head of France's domestic intelligence agency faced trial yesterday accused of spying for Bernard Arnault's LVMH. Bernard Squarcini is alleged to have used the state apparatus for private interests and improperly tapped his network to gain business from the firm. Neither Arnault nor the company he controls are on trial. 

Cashless Move | An alliance of Portuguese, Spanish and Italian payment services companies is expanding to add other European payment methods. Bancomat, Spain's Bizum and Portugal's Sibs in December announced a partnership for "interoperability," so users can make simple instant payments using their mobile phones across the three countries. 

Chart of the Day

Trump's tariff war is leading some analysts to reconsider how far the ECB would go lowering borrowing costs given its impact on growth and inflation. Economists at ABN Amro changed their call for euro-zone monetary policy to predict that the key deposit facility rate – currently at 3.25% – will fall to 1% in early 2026, from a low of 1.5% previously indicated. Some even said that the ECB may react to the US duties by returning to the so-called zero interest rate policy to support the European economy.

Today's Agenda

All times CET

  • 8:30 a.m. European Parliament President Metsola meets Sauli Niinisto, special adviser to the president of the commission
  • 10:55 a.m. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs hold a press conference the Adazi military base
  • Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson participates in the Energy Community Ministerial Meeting and delivers a keynote speech at an event with clean tech companies in Baku, Azerbaijan

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