Monday, November 4, 2024

Brussels Edition: Bracing for change

The stakes for Europe on the outcome on the US presidential race couldn't be higher.

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

US voters are going to the polls today to decide whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump should become their next president, an election that may come down to a photo-finish. Whatever the result, Europe is bracing for change. The "Trump electroshock" is how some on the continent describe the potential of a second term for the Republican candidate, with fears abounding on how he could forge a deal with Vladimir Putin that sells out Ukraine. In case of a Harris win, Europeans see her supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes, but a close race would raise doubts about the durability of the US commitment to Europe. Either way, EU leaders are hedging their bets: Luxembourg Prime Minister Luc Frieden yesterday resurrected the idea of a European army, proposing a coalition of nations to team up to safeguard against the possibility that the bloc may be left exposed in the future. 

Samuel Stolton

What's Happening

China Complaint | China filed a formal complaint with the World Trade Organization over EU electric-vehicle tariffs. The tit-for-tat confrontation could endanger a trade relationship valued at €739 billion. 

Iran Spies | Israel's top officials are afraid their fellow citizens may be increasingly spying for Iran. Since July, intelligence authorities have sounded the alarm over potential suspects from Israel and elsewhere — including Europe. 

Water Warning | Floods that swept eastern Spain in early November have become typical across the globe, with torrential rains killing hundreds and displacing millions. Experts are warning that the accelerated water cycle is irreversible. 

Mineral Cost | Belarus's President Alexander Lukashenko wants to increase prices for minerals by pitching a 10% potash output cut to Russian producers. Cheap supplies are increasingly available after sanctions re-routed trades.

Guest Appearance | Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will join a meeting of Eurozone finance ministers next month, as part of the Labour-led British government's efforts to deepen cooperation with the EU.

Around Europe

Floating Armories | The UK has spent months trying to get hundreds of guns moved from floating arms depots. The boats are aiding Russia's oil trade, even with growing sanctions against Moscow. 

Voting Curbs | Estonia will push forward with plans aimed at stripping Russian and Belarusian citizens of the right to vote in local elections, a measure that seeks to crack down on what the government sees as pro-Kremlin influence. 

Revived Push | President Maia Sandu's decisive election victory in Moldova may help revive her push to steer the former Soviet republic into the EU. Read here why the tiny nation is in a geopolitical tug-of-war between Russia and the West.

Decree Rule | Hungary's parliament renewed Viktor Orban's powers to rule by decree for another six months. The nationalist leader's power concentration has put his country on a collision course with the EU, which is withholding about €20 billion from Hungary due to rule-of-law concerns. 

Borrowing Pivot | Faced with rising bond yields, Romania plans to rely on domestic borrowing and loans from multinational institutions to cover increased financing needs the rest of this year. The aim is also to reduce foreign debt issuance in the next two years, provided EU recovery funds arrive on time, a senior official told us.

Chart of the Day
 

As the UK continues to import electricity from Europe at record levels, power prices in the country jumped to their highest in almost a year. Low wind power across the UK and Europe means power prices in France and Germany are also reaching their highest levels in months. Britain's power has been, on average, more expensive than that in France, Belgium, the Netherlands and the Nordics for much of the past two years. 

Today's Agenda

All times CET

  • 9 a.m. European Parliament hearings with Commissioners-designate Michael McGrath and Ekaterina Zaharieva 
  • 12:30 p.m. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni hold press conference in Rome
  • 2:30 p.m. Hearings with Commissioners-designate Dubravka Šuica and Dan Jørgensen
  • 6:30 p.m. Hearings with Commissioners-designate Jessika Roswall and Magnus Brunner
  • Euro-area finance ministers meet in Brussels

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