| Good evening from Westminster, where everyone's focus is on what's happening on the other side of the globe, and not so much on the new members of Kemi Badenoch's shadow cabinet. (Sorry guys — but congrats.) As the world watches and waits for the results of the American presidential election, my colleagues have pulled together intel from all around the globe on how the rest of the world is preparing for a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris win, in a piece that truly demonstrates the heft of our global newsroom. From Ukraine to the Middle East to global trade, they have a guide to what either election outcome will mean for five key global issues. Harris has warned that her opponent is a "threat to democracy." And if the outcome is as close as the polling suggests, it could be contested in the courts. Some are worrying that if Trump wins he will initiate another trade war against China, which could pull the rest of the world into its crosshairs. You'll recall that he memorably said tariff is "the most beautiful word in the dictionary" in an interview with our editor-in-chief John Micklethwait last month — and he's promised 60% tariffs on China and 20% on the rest of the world. The graph above shows how seismic an impact his tariffs would have if he follows through on his campaign pledges and the rest of the world retaliates with tariffs of their own. A Bloomberg Economics model shows the US share of global goods trade would crater to 9% by 2028 from the current 21%. For China, almost 90% of exports to the US would be wiped out. For us here in the UK, exports across the pond would drop by over 50%. Trump himself has said that some of those numbers may be a negotiation tactic, which we should bear in mind. But we shouldn't underestimate how seismic what he's proposing really is — as John spelled out to Trump during that interview. Here in the UK, our government has been coy about how it would respond to trade spats — although Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, has given the clearest hint yet that there is a plan for retaliation tariffs prepared, telling Politico it is "prudent and appropriate to prepare for those scenarios." An election in the world's biggest economy is always an important moment for the UK. But Trump's tariff plans are just one of many reasons why this vote has even more riding on it than usual. Follow our US election live blog here. Want this in your inbox each weekday? You can sign up here. | 
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