| By Kevin Crowley It sounded like the top American climate diplomat really meant it: "We are moving away from fossil fuels," said John Kerry, in one of his last acts as the US negotiator at the close of last year's United Nations climate summit. "We're not turning back." Today, the US is producing more oil than any other country in history. Further increases to US output are planned next year and beyond, no matter who prevails in the presidential election being held days before climate diplomats convene for COP29 in Azerbaijan. The rising tide of American oil doesn't just contradict Kerry's pledge; it cuts against authoritative projections by the International Energy Agency and other analysts who conclude no new fossil fuel fields should be built if the world wants to hit net zero in the next 25 years. "No country can show up to the international stage and claim to be a climate leader while continuing massive fossil fuel expansion back at home," said Catherine Abreu, director of the International Climate Politics Hub, which works with member states at COP meetings. "The US is the most significant culprit, but there are many other countries embedded in this kind of hypocrisy." The US currently pumps 13.5 million barrels a day, more than 50% more than Saudi Arabia. And it's directly challenging the Kingdom's hegemony as the "central bank of oil" by taking a commanding position in the market. If that wasn't enough, the US recently became the world's biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas, jumping ahead of Australia and Qatar after flooding the market at home. American gas executives are scouring the world for new markets, locking buyers into fossil fuels for decades to come. A curious fact about the US emergence as the dominant oil power is that it has coincided with a period of pronounced climate leadership. President Joe Biden will leave the White House after reintegrating the world's biggest economy into the international climate order and passing landmark legislation to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on green technologies. Kerry and John Podesta, the former and current climate envoys, play central roles in negotiations and have won significant commitments to reduce planet-warming emissions, including from China.  John Kerry, right, then serving as US climate envoy, speaks with his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua during the COP28 summit in Dubai last year. Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg For how long will US officials be able to simultaneously call climate change an "existential threat" to humanity while pumping all this oil and gas? "It's kind of accepted that someone like Saudi Arabia is not a good actor in climate talks," said Collin Rees, campaign manager for Oil Change US. "But the US is responsible for more fossil fuel expansion than anyone else. It's a core contradiction that the US will have to confront sooner rather than later." That tension is clearly visible in the aftermath of COP28 in Dubai, where the US helped secure the first-ever global agreement to transition away from all fossil fuels. Yet US oil production has jumped 24% over the last four years and will increase another 6% to 14.1 million barrels a day by 2026, according to BloombergNEF forecasts. That's more than the daily output of Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Nigeria and Venezuela — combined. The Department of Energy expects exports of liquified natural gas to double by 2030.  While the result of the upcoming presidential election could have enormous consequences for US participation in international climate agreements, little should change in terms of producing oil and gas. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Trump have made it clear oil executives will have a friend in the White House. Trump, who withdrew from the Paris Agreement on climate change in 2017, is close to the industry and has promised to slash regulations to enable higher production and lower energy prices. Harris has reversed her pledge to ban fracking while campaigning in the previous presidential election cycle and frequently touts the country's record oil and gas production in her stump speeches. Harris insists she supports the fight against climate change. In fact, she's tried to balance the apparent contradiction between being the leading oil exporter and a climate leader. "I am proud that as vice president over the last four years, we have invested a trillion dollars in a clean energy economy while we have also increased domestic gas production to historic levels," she said in a debate with Trump in September. In the energy world, this is known as an all-of-the-above policy that promotes fossil fuels, renewable energy from solar and wind as well as novel forms of emissions mitigation such as carbon capture. Exxon Mobil Corp. calls it "the 'and' equation," and this flexible rhetoric fits in comfortably at climate summits. Exxon Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods used a surprise appearance last year at COP28 in the oil hub of Dubai to argue for a broader conversation "to meet the needs of society and reduce emissions," rather than simply shutting down fossil fuels. Woods is expected to turn up again this month at COP29 in Baku.  Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods made a surprise appearance at COP28 in Dubai, and he's expected to be back at COP29 in Azerbaijan this month. Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg Notably, the final text agreed to by every nation at COP28 recognized the need for "transitional fuels," a term of art favored by fossil fuel lobbyists and widely interpreted as a crucial defense of natural gas. Climate scientists tend to see this inclusivity as an evasive maneuver at a time when emissions need to fall rapidly to avoid the most severe impacts from rising temperatures. That's especially true from the US, the country most responsible for historic greenhouse gases and the second-biggest emitter today. The push for accountability from the US might take on a new dimension at COP29, given US financial support for Ukraine and Israel. "You have money for arms and war," said Amiera Sawas, head of research and policy at the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative. "It's hard then to also claim you don't have money for the transition." Read the full story online to see how other countries' relationships with fossil fuel may complicate negotiations at COP29. | 
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