Wednesday, October 16, 2024

Trump sees enemies everywhere

Donald Trump seems stuck in the past

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Donald Trump likes to argue that the world is on the cusp of WWIII and that under him the US was not involved in any wars.

But now, the global hotspots are proliferating, and the conflict in the Middle East is spreading. Less than a month away from a US election that will probably be won on the smallest of margins, American allies are nervously probing for signs that the world's policeman won't retire — especially in a second Trump term.

The takeaway from Trump's hour-long conversation with Bloomberg News Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait is that the Republican candidate is more fixated on tariffs than how to manage the geopolitical crises unfolding in real time.

Left unanswered was whether American troops would step in to protect Taiwan if China invaded the democratic archipelago. Ukraine never came up, nor did Iran.

Instead, Trump seemed stuck in the past, weaving a reverie about his great relationships with antagonists like China's Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin of Russia and ever more committed to a narrative where long-time friends are taking advantage of the US and French President Emmanuel Macron is a "wise guy."

WATCH: Trump dismisses economists' predictions that his proposed tariffs would pass costs on to US consumers. Source: Bloomberg

"They screw us on trade, so bad, the European nations. And then on top of that, they were screwing us on the military," he said in the interview in Chicago yesterday.

This time Brussels is ready on the trade front — should Trump win, the European Commission can immediately pull out of the drawer a list of American goods it could target.

But when it comes to the war on its doors, Europe is ill-equipped to fend for itself should the US retreat and leave the continent exposed to Putin's creeping expansionism.

A Bloomberg investigation paints a disconcerting picture of a "Potemkin army" — one with no experience in planning or commanding large-scale combined-force operations.

At least in that regard, Trump has a point. 

Swedish, Finnish, Italian and French forces during the Nordic Response 24 military exercise on March 10. Photographer: Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP/Getty Images 

Global Must Reads

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said a frozen conflict with Russia isn't acceptable to Ukraine as he set out details of his "victory plan" in a speech to the parliament in Kyiv today. An invitation to join NATO is the first point on the proposal, though membership is a question for the future, Zelenskiy said. He reiterated that Ukraine won't trade territory with Russia to end the war.

Israel's air force struck Beirut for the first time in almost a week targeting what it described as an underground weapons stockpile in the southern suburb of Dahieh, a Hezbollah stronghold, hours after Lebanon's prime minister said Washington had assured him the attacks would ease. Israel has ordered residents in a quarter of Lebanon's territory to evacuate, the United Nations says, with an estimated 1.2 million people displaced.

Smoke rises following Israel's attack in Beirut today. Photographer: Houssam Shbaro/Anadolu/Getty Images

The extraordinary onslaught of legal cases ahead of the US election that have questioned fundamental principles of who can vote, how ballots are cast, which votes count, and how the winner is decided signals an ominous turn for Amercan democracy. And new challenges are still being filed, adding more fuel to an expected firestorm of objections after the Nov. 5 vote.

The US and partners including South Korea and Japan unveiled a plan to monitor North Korea's nuclear weapons development after a Russian veto this year triggered the end of a UN panel of experts' mandate to report on Pyongyang. Nations participating in the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team will look to address threats from North Korea's ballistic missile program and its weapons of mass destruction.

Kenyan Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua appeared before the country's first impeachment trial in the latest challenge to William Ruto's administration in the wake of this year's deadly anti-government protests. A final vote is expected tomorrow on removing Gachagua from office for allegedly stealing public funds and making inflammatory remarks to stir ethnic hatred. He denies wrongdoing.

President Xi visited the province directly across from Taiwan after the  Chinese military carried out more major exercises intended to ramp up pressure on the government in Taipei.

Mozambique's attorney general notified opposition presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane that his actions and claims of irregularities in the Oct. 9 vote violate the nation's constitution and urged him to stop.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will convene an informal meeting of European Union leaders on the sidelines of this week's summit to push for tougher migration measures as rifts in the bloc over the issue widen.

Washington Dispatch

Billionaires continue to play a crucial role in Trump's quest to reclaim the White House.

Elon Musk, the Tesla and SpaceX chief executive officer, vaulted into the top tier of political donors by pouring $75 million into the super political action committee he created just this year, according to the organization's filing with the Federal Election Commission. The Super PAC is paying for the former president's get-out-the-vote operations in swing states.

Miriam Adelson, the majority shareholder of Las Vegas Sands, the world's largest casino operator, contributed $95 million into her Preserve America PAC, which supports the former president. The donation exceeds the $75 million she and her late husband, Sheldon Adelson, gave to the fund in the same period in the 2020 election.

While billionaires, including the Adelsons, have supported Trump since the 2016 election, they have become even more essential in 2024 because Vice President Kamala Harris has far outpaced his fundraising.

One person to watch today: President Joe Biden will deliver a eulogy at a memorial service for Ethel Kennedy in Washington.

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Chart of the Day

The world is heading into an era of cheaper energy prices as a shift toward electricity use leaves behind surpluses of oil and gas, the International Energy Agency predicted. Global demand for all fossil fuels will stop growing this decade, while supplies of oil and LNG are set to climb, the IEA forecast in its annual long-term report. At the same time, an ongoing surge in electricity consumption led by China is on track to accelerate.

And Finally

A first-of-its-kind insurance program bought the British government some time to shore up flood defenses in areas most vulnerable to inundation, but exclusive data we obtained shows that isn't happening quickly enough. Read the latest story in our Bloomberg Green series about how climate change is making parts of the planet uninsurable, leaving millions of people without a safety net.

Flooded fields in Somerset, South West England. Photographer: Tom Jamieson/Bloomberg

More from Bloomberg

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  • Check out our Bloomberg Investigates film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries
  • Next Africa, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it's headed
  • Economics Daily for what the changing landscape means for policymakers, investors and you
  • Green Daily for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance
  • Explore more newsletters at Bloomberg.com.

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