Crypto News: Markets Daily: Tracking Trump trades

Global chip stocks lost $420 billion in market value as ASML's earnings report fueled worries about a broader technology slowdown. Nvidia shares tick higher in premarket trading following yesterday's selloff. US equity futures are little changed.
LVMH shares plunge as China's slowdown takes a toll on profits. Morgan Stanley, Abbott and CSX are due to report later today.
China's huge retail investor base has turned against the stock market. The CSI 300 is on the cusp of a 10% correction.
The pound fell to its lowest since August as UK inflation fell below the Bank of England's 2% target.
Metals billionaire Anil Agarwal delivered a 98% rally to creditors.

With the US presidential race less than three weeks away, here's how election trades are shaping up in key assets:

The macro picture: A victory by former president Donald Trump "would mean higher yields, higher inflation, stronger dollar and an ambiguous impact on equities," says Peter Branner, chief investment officer at Abrdn.
The dollar: Trump's interview with Bloomberg's editor-in-chief, John Micklethwait, sent the greenback higher yesterday as the Republican candidate extolled his love of tariffs. The prevailing view on Wall Street is that a trade war would hurt foreign economies more than the US and risk geopolitical ructions, making the dollar more attractive. Trump also said the currency's reserve status would be "the strongest it'll ever be" under him.
Stocks: A Goldman Sachs basket of equities that benefit from Republican policies has been rallying, and the bank's strategists say it could rise a further 8% if Trump wins on Nov. 5. Stocks expected to do well include regional banks benefiting from deregulation, crypto, energy and defense.

Trump Media: Traders also appear to be using shares of Trump's volatile media startup as an election gambling proxy, with its swings loosely correlated with moves in betting markets.
US bonds: Goldman strategists recommend using the election as a reason to shy away from 10-year Treasuries versus their German counterparts.
Chinese yuan and Mexican peso: Hedge funds are ramping up bearish positions in those two currencies, as Ruth Carson and David Finnerty report today. One measure of yuan volatility is the highest since December 2022. — Simon Kennedy

Intel slides about 4% in premarket trading. A cybersecurity group in China is calling for checks to be conducted on the chipmaker's products, according to a statement by the association on social media. Intel products experience frequent vulnerabilities and high failure rates, the group says. Also, Bloomberg reported that Qualcomm is likely to wait until after the US election before deciding whether to pursue a takeover offer for Intel. The chipmaker's shares have lost two-thirds of their value from a peak 2020.

German software firm SAP has taken the title of Europe's most valuable technology company away from ASML.

More than €60 billion ($65.3 billion) in market value has been wiped away from the Dutch chip-machine maker. ASML sank about 5% in Amsterdam on Wednesday, adding to a 16% selloff yesterday.

The stock reaction was all the more fierce because ASML mistakenly published its press release early and surprised investors by booking only about half of the orders analysts had expected. So there was none of the accompanying color that investors look for from company executives via interviews and conference calls.

Adding to the selloff: Traders had flocked to ASML as the best way in Europe to bet on the boom in AI. That means more short-term, momentum-style investors likely traded the stock. Those types tend to focus on sentiment, and thus adopt a shoot-first, ask-questions-later mentality when news breaks.

It's worth noting that bookings for the company's machines, which can cost hundreds of millions of euros, are inherently volatile. (Read this Big Take for a deep dive into ASML.)

Still, the company has often reported disappointing bookings in past quarters, with only short-term effects on the stock price. Longer term, bulls argue, ASML will benefit because its gigantic extreme ultraviolet lithography machines make the chips that power the next wave of AI devices.

What matters the most for your stock trades between now and the end of the year? Is it the magnitude of Fed interest-rate cuts, the outcome of US elections or the strength of earnings? Do you expect quarterly profit reports to surprise or disappoint? This is your chance to share your views in our quick Bloomberg survey for MLIV Pulse.

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