Wednesday, October 16, 2024

Supply Lines: Trump and tariffs

Former President Donald Trump shifted from a mostly defensive stance of his protectionist trade policies to more of an offensive posture by

Former President Donald Trump shifted from a mostly defensive stance of his protectionist trade policies to more of an offensive posture by going after those he considers to be "anti-tariff."

That was among several observations made during Trump's hour-long interview Tuesday with Bloomberg News Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait at the Economic Club of Chicago. (Click here to watch the full interview.)

Read More: Trump Defends Tariff Plan While Pressing for More Fed Influence

The Republican nominee in the Nov. 5 election pushed back against the idea that trade policies — like a broad expansion of US tariffs that he's espousing — will be inflationary and bad for economic growth. On the contrary, he said.

American consumers "are going to be the biggest beneficiaries" of a more widespread use of import taxes if he returns to the White House, and countries targeted by tariffs are the ones who "will pay," he said.

Under questioning, the first half of which covered trade issues, Trump indicated that tariffs have many benefits and can align with foreign policy. Here are the various applications:

  • Generate tax revenue. "We got hundreds of billions of dollars just from China alone and I hadn't even started yet," he said, even though it's US importers that pay tariffs in Chinese goods.
  • Protecting domestic companies. He said auto companies that set up production facilities in Mexico to sell into the US market will face prohibitive tariffs aimed at protecting domestic industry.
  • Incentivizing foreign investment. "All you have to do is build your plant in the United States and you don't have any tariffs," Trump said.
  • Leverage against allies. He recounted how he successfully pressured France to reverse a tax on US companies with his personal threat of 100% tariffs on its wine and champagne. "Our beautiful European countries — wonderful, wonderful. They treat us so badly," he said. "We're going to put tariffs on them."

Some of Trump's comments were warmly received by attendees, who cheered his argument that dramatically increasing tariffs on foreign goods would protect "the companies that we have here and the new companies that will move in."

Read More: Trump's Interview Remarks on Economic Policy Fact-Checked

To Trump, tariffs aren't bad — they're just getting bad press. 

"The most beautiful word in the dictionary is 'tariff,' and it's my favorite word," he said. "It needs a public relations firm to help it."

What Trump didn't talk about was the likely response to US tariffs: retaliation and trade wars. To avoid being caught flat-footed, the European Union has prepared a list of American goods it could target with tariffs should he win the election and follow through on his threat.

Related Reading:

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Brendan Murray in London

Click here for more of Bloomberg.com's most-read stories about trade, supply chains and shipping.

Charted Territory

USMCA on the Horizon | Most trade agreements are indefinite and the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement must be renegotiated in 2026, Bloomberg Opinion's John Authers writes today. A Trump administration would have leverage to make near-shoring harder. This may or may not end up creating more American jobs; but it's a safer bet that it will create yet another obstacle to Mexican growth, he writes. (Sign up for his daily newsletter here.)

Today's Must Reads

  • Chinese state actors have made widespread and likely successful efforts to access British critical infrastructure networks, according to UK officials.
  • In this Talking Transports podcast, Matt Pyatt, CEO and founder of Arrive Logistics, shares his insights into how technology coupled with the company's sales culture has helped fueled its explosive organic growth over the past decade.
  • Hyundai's most productive car plant sits on a former cotton plantation on the southern edge of Montgomery, Alabama, where it pumps out Tucson crossovers, Santa Fe SUVs and other models on three shifts, 24 hours a day, sometimes seven days a week.
  • India's trade deficit narrowed to the lowest in five months in September as the nation's import bill declined due to moderation in inbound shipments of gold. 
  • Companies including Amazon and Woodside Energy announced projects in Mexico totaling about $20 billion, a victory for President Claudia Sheinbaum as she seeks to attract investment from wary business leaders.
  • TotalEnergies aims to next year approve an import terminal for LNG in Mozambique that may help users in neighboring South Africa avoid a potential supply crisis
  • California utilities said they may need to cut power to homes and businesses from San Francisco to Los Angeles starting later this week as dry, gusty winds  sweep across the state, raising the risk of wildfires.

Coming Up

Bloomberg New Economy: The world faces a wide range of critical challenges, ranging from ongoing military conflict and a worsening climate crisis to the unforeseen consequences of deglobalization and accelerating artificial intelligence. But these challenges are not insurmountable. Join us in Sao Paulo on Oct. 22-23 as leaders in business and government from across the globe come together to discuss the biggest issues of our time and mark the path forward. Click here to register.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • US trade tensions with the EU could be unfortunate for both sides, especially as the continent's role as a buyer of US exports has surged over the pabst decade, according to Bloomberg's Garfield Reynolds.
  • Maersk and the broader container liner industry is facing a more challenging backdrop as the industry normalizes following the dislocation created by the crisis in the Red Sea, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
  • Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints. 
  • For freight dashboards, see {BI RAIL}, {BI TRCK} and {BI SHIP} and {BI 3PLS}
  • Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
  • On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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