Thursday, October 10, 2024

Supply Lines: One-two hurricane punch

Florida's Tampa Bay-St. Petersburg area is waking up to widespread damage from Hurricane Milton, just as residents, businesses and utilities

Florida's Tampa Bay-St. Petersburg area is waking up to widespread damage from Hurricane Milton, just as residents, businesses and utilities were recovering from destruction wrought by another big storm just two weeks ago.

Milton made landfall Wednesday evening as a Category 3 hurricane — threatening lives, billions of dollars in infrastructure damage and building-material shortages in a state economy that ranks as the fourth-largest in the country by annual GDP.

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Port Tampa Bay, which closed shipping operations before Milton arrived, handles a variety of goods arriving in containers, as well as bulk cargo, passenger cruise lines and fuel. Tampa is also a key gateway for US fertilizer exports, and an expert warns that prices could stay elevated for the foreseeable future. 

Officials are "very focused on things like Port Tampa Bay, where about 40% of the refined petroleum that comes in serving the state of Florida comes through," US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said on CNN. "We just won't know until the damage assessments are through, how long it's going to take to get that port back up and running."

Fuel Transport

As long as the predicted 15-foot tidal surge doesn't damage the port's fuel storage tanks, they can be refilled by tanker ships waiting to arrive once the storm leaves the area.

But gas stations around Central Florida are already low as residents fueled up their vehicles to flee, and refilling them will require trucks to bring fuel from depots to service stations and distribution hubs.

"You're going to have a lot of fuel at the port," said maritime historian and former merchant mariner Sal Mercogliano on Wednesday. The problem in central Florida is getting it out of the port and to its destination, he said.

Once this storm hits and starts wiping out roads, and knocking down powerlines, the distribution will be more difficult, he said.

Given that Florida is a long peninsula, recovery operations are going to require substantial maritime assets from both the private sector and the government, Mercogliano said.

Trucking Capacity

Trucks hauling goods into and out of Central Florida were scarce on Wednesday as truckers in the Southeast braced for Milton while still recovering from the previous hurricane.

In Helene-stricken Tallahassee, demand for flatbed trucks, which haul things like generators and building materials, rose 68% last week compared to the week before, according to freight and analytics firm DAT. "Hurricane Helene is sort of a precursor to what we're going to see with Milton," said Dean Croke, principal industry analyst at DAT.

Bloomberg's Michael McDonough posted an image of Hurricane Milton's projected path, along with key infrastructure: transmission lines, railroads and ocean vessel locations.

Trucking rates are expected to jump after the storm as capacity constricts further. The back-to-back disasters are reminiscent of the 2017 hurricane season which brought Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose and Maria and sparked a rally in trucking freight rates, Croke said.

"They have a tendency to move markets," Croke said of the storms. "What goes up doesn't come down. It kind of stays up because of the catalyst that it provides for the rest of the the economy as it tries to recover from the devastation."

Fertilizer Hub

Tampa's port also handles about 25% of all US  fertilizer exports, according to Veronica Nigh, senior economist at The Fertilizer Institute.

The Tampa region produces more than 40% of the country's ammonium phosphate, and 32% of phosphate rock capacity is in the area, she said during a post on YouTube this week. 

"Certainly the impact of these hurricanes is going to continue to lead to elevated phosphate prices for the foreseeable future," she said.

Mercogliano said major damage to the port would have "a big hit on the economy."

Melissa Seixas, president of Duke Energy Florida, said the utility is preparing for Milton but there's nothing it can do to protect electricity infrastructure in the Tampa area from a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet. The company just replaced hundreds of transformers destroyed by Helene two weeks ago and that equipment is now vulnerable again.

Laura Curtis in Boston

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Charted Territory

Less Port Congestion | Supply chains are slowly catching up and ship queues outside major East and Gulf coast ports are down from their peaks after last week's three-day strike by dockworkers, according to a Bloomberg tally using vessel tracking data.

Today's Must Reads

  • The European Union and China must continue talks to avoid an escalation of protectionist measures that would lead to a "lose-lose" situation for both economies, Spain's top economic official said.
  • GE Aerospace, Airbus and other aviation heavyweights proposed a series of reforms to tighten up aerospace supply chains after the discovery of spare components allegedly backed by falsified records set off a frantic global search last year.
  • Aircraft delivery delays at Boeing and Airbus are forcing some carriers to furlough crews and review expansion plans, according to the head of airline industry's main lobby group. 
  • A South African court temporarily blocked a deal between the nation's state-owned logistics firm and a company owned by Filipino billionaire Enrique Razon to expand and run sub-Saharan Africa's biggest container port after Maersk challenged the award. 
  • Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said China has agreed to lift restrictions on lobster imports by year's end, removing one of the last trade curbs imposed by Beijing during a period of tension between the nations.
  • Watch Inditex's CEO discuss how the company is positioned to meet sustainability targets, including reducing the bulk of emissions along its supply chain.
  • In this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence's Talking Transports podcast, Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo managing director and lead analyst on airfreight, surface and marine transportation, discusses what investors should be thinking about ahead of 3Q results for the truckload, less-than-truckload and railroad companies.
  • Coming Up

    Bloomberg New Economy: The world faces a wide range of critical challenges, ranging from ongoing military conflict and a worsening climate crisis to the unforeseen consequences of deglobalization and accelerating artificial intelligence. But these challenges are not insurmountable. Join us in Sao Paulo on Oct. 22-23 as leaders in business and government from across the globe come together to discuss the biggest issues of our time and mark the path forward. Click here to register.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • UK Maritime Trading Operations says a vessel was attacked by unknown projectile and sustained damage 70 nautical miles southwest of Al Hodeidah, Yemen.
  • Amazon.com has insourced more logistics functions over several years to reduce costs and improve efficiency. Restarting delivery service for packages outside its network could directly compete with FedEx and UPS if it can build scale, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
  • Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints. 
  • For freight dashboards, see {BI RAIL}, {BI TRCK} and {BI SHIP} and {BI 3PLS}
  • Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
  • On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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