Friday, October 4, 2024

Next Africa: A warning to the world

The spread of diseases from remote areas can cause havoc across the world

Welcome to Next Africa, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it's headed. Sign up here to have it delivered to your email.

As if battling the rapid spread of mpox wasn't enough, Africa is facing a new health threat: Rwanda's first Marburg disease outbreak.

Terrifying as the pathogen is — the hemorrhagic fever causes uncontrolled bleeding — it likely poses less danger than mpox and the pandemic that preceded it, Covid-19. 

"It causes shock and death very, very quickly," says Marietjie Venter, a virologist at Johannesburg's University of the Witwatersrand. So quickly that there's little time to infect others. 

Colorized scanning electron micrograph of Marburg virus particles. Source: NIAID

But what the epidemic demonstrates is that as world's population grows and people move into previously uninhabited areas — US health diplomat John Nkengasong describes this as "ecological disequilibrium" — perilous viruses will leap from animals to humans more frequently. Marburg is carried by bats.

Of the about 17 outbreaks since the disease was discovered in 1967, four have happened since 2021. Ebola, a related illness, has followed a similar path. 

Africa, and the increasingly connected world, is woefully unprepared. 

Experimental drugs and vaccines are being rushed to Rwanda, but there are no licensed treatments for Marburg. Africa has few vaccines for mpox and the manufacture of both immunizations and therapeutic treatments for diseases on the continent is minimal. 

Sabin Nsanzimana, Rwanda's health minister, says the Marburg flare-up should be "a call to action."

As HIV — a virus that's led to the deaths of more than 42 million people — has shown, diseases that come from remote parts of the world can cause global havoc.

Key stories and opinion:  
Ebola-Like Infections in Rwanda Signal More Frequent Outbreaks 
Mpox Spreads to Ghana as Cases Surge in Megacity Kinshasa
US's $100 Billion HIV Program Commits to African Manufacturing 
The Fight to Contain Deadly Contagion Starts in Africa 
Understanding Mpox and How Outbreaks Spread: QuickTake 

Bloomberg is looking for the most innovative startups in Africa. Applications are open until Nov. 8. Enter here. Source: Diana Ejaita

News Roundup

The formation of a business-friendly coalition government in South Africa has won the support of the majority of citizens, with the richest most satisfied with its performance, a survey shows. The study by the Social Research Foundation also found that backing for the African National Congress and Democratic Alliance — the biggest parties in the administration — has increased since May's election. The economy is starting to see signs of a turnaround, buoyed by strong investor sentiment, according to chief executive officers of some of its biggest companies. 

Supporters of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa at his inauguration for a second term in Pretoria on June 19. Photographer: Phill  Magakoe/AFP/Getty Images

Nigeria hopes to attract as much as $10 billion in deep-water gas exploration through tax breaks and other measures proposed in a new policy framework for the industry, according to a government official. The new plan seeks to speed up developments in Nigeria's offshore gas sector, where an estimated 67% of the resource remains undeveloped, by providing tax credits for new investments. Global companies are seen spending an estimated $90 billion on deep-water oil and gas projects in the coming years.

Ghana received "overwhelming" participation and support from its international bondholders to restructure $13 billion of overseas securities, a key step in the West African nation's debt rework. The agreement came after the country halted payments on most of its external liabilities in 2022. Separately, investors holding Ethiopia's defaulted dollar bonds rejected the restructuring terms put forward by the government for its $1 billion issue. A committee representing bondholders said Ethiopia's proposal of an 18% haircut is "wholly inconsistent" with the nation's economic fundamentals. 

Ghanaian cedi coins.  Photographer: Ernest Ankomah/Bloomberg

Tanzania suspended the digital unit of the nation's biggest media house, after it released an animated piece about abductions of people critical of the country's leaders. The communications regulator says Mwananchi Communications published content that "threatens and is likely to affect and harm national unity and social peace." In an 80-second animated video, a woman that's meant to be President Samia Hassan sits down to watch television and all the channels she flips through have items of family members lamenting missing kin. 

Libya resumed oil production, a move that potentially returns hundreds of thousands of barrels a day to global markets after a political standoff in the OPEC nation. The North African nation typically produces more than 1.2 million barrels daily, but that plunged to under 450,000 in late August after the divided nation's western government fired the central bank governor, spurring its eastern rival to order an oil shutdown in response.

The Brega oil port in Libya. Photographer: AFP/Getty Images

Daniel Chapo, the ruling-party candidate in Mozambique's Oct. 9 presidential election, said in an interview he favors talks to end an Islamic State-backed insurgency that's delayed a planned $20 billion liquefied natural gas export project by TotalEnergies in the northeast of the country. Seeking negotiations with the instigators of the violence would be a new plan of action for the government. Chapo is competing against three opposition leaders and is widely expected to win.

Next Africa Quiz — Which nation has offered citizenship to the descendants of African slaves? Send your answers to  gbell16@bloomberg.net.

Past & Prologue

Data Watch

  • Nigeria's naira struck a fresh low against the dollar as businesses in the West African nation sought to reduce their exposure to the US currency amid expectations the local unit will continue to suffer.
  • Ghana's inflation rate unexpectedly increased in September for the first time in six months, to 21.5%. Kenyan inflation, though, eased in September to the slowest pace in almost 12 years.
  • Angola's kwanza recovered from a 25-year low against the dollar after its central bank resumed foreign currency sales to commercial lenders. 
  • Mauritius's rupee is set to build on its strongest quarter in 13 years as tourism receipts increase, according to Oxford Economics Africa.

Coming Up

  • Oct. 6 Tunisia election
  • Oct. 7 South Africa reserves data, Mauritius reserves, Seychelles inflation — all for September 
  • Oct. 8 Kenya interest-rate decision, September inflation for Mauritius, Namibia and Tanzania
  • Oct. 9 Kenya central bank briefing on interest-rate decision, Mozambique election
  • Oct. 10 South Africa mining & manufacturing data for August, Rwanda inflation data for September
Bloomberg's Ntando Thukwana joins Jennifer Zabasajja for this week's Next Africa podcast to talk about why the impact of climate change is being felt more acutely in South Africa's townships.

Quote of the Week

"People burnt their fingers and they're waiting to see greater economic activity"
Sim Tshabalala
Chief Executive Officer of Standard Bank 
The head of the continent's biggest bank says many foreign investors remain cautious about investing in South Africa despite a recent rally in its market assets. 

Last Word

Britain struck a deal to cede sovereignty over the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean to Mauritius, while keeping control of a strategically important UK-US military base for another century. Chagossians will be allowed to return to the islands, except for Diego Garcia where the base is located, more than half a century after their forced removal. The deal aims to draw a line under a long-running territorial dispute complicated by the importance of the US Air Force base established in the 1970s and used in more recent military campaigns in the Middle East and Afghanistan. Mauritius has been battling to regain control of the archipelago since it was separated by the UK in 1965. Eight years later, the military base was established on Diego Garcia and about 1,360 Chagossians were forced to leave that island and two others. 

Diego Garcia. Source: USGS/NASA Landsat/Getty Images

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