Monday, October 7, 2024

Ivy League rejects look for Southern comfort

Interest in super-selective Northeastern colleges is waning.

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Today's Agenda

Lowcountry Learning

My older sister is somewhat of a trend whisperer. In 2015, she purchased an oversized black puffer coat that looked like an inflatable trash bag. Initially, I thought it was absolutely hideous. And maybe it was! But two years later, everyone and their mother was wearing some iteration of this shiny jacket, including Rihanna:

Source: RV/Splash News

It certainly helps that my sister works in fashion. But her prescience extends beyond apparel. Look no further than her alma mater, the University of South Carolina. Back when she attended the school in the aughts, nobody in small-town Connecticut — where we grew up — knew there was a second USC. She'd frequently correct people on the whereabouts of the college — "It's South Carolina, not Southern California" — and her "Go Cocks!" t-shirt was often observed by parents and gym-goers with horror.

But it turns out she was merely ahead of the trend yet again: Conor Sen says more and more East Coasters are headed to college down South, where campuses "have spent time and money becoming more desirable." According to the Wall Street Journal, the number of students from the North attending public schools in the South has climbed 30% from 2018 to 2022.

While the optics for Southern schools have always been good — warm weather, football games and oyster roasts — acceptance rates in the low single digits at elite schools in the the Northeast Corridor make the decision that much easier.

The tuition math is on the South's side, too: "Out-of-state tuition at the University of Alabama, which in 2022 had 11% of its students hail from the Northeast, is more than $33,000 per year. At the University of Tennessee, it's $31,000. Not particularly cheap, but relative bargains for well-off families in the Northeast, where in-demand private institutions such as Columbia University and Boston College charge more than $65,000." 

But the fact that the South is luring elite students — many of whom have 1300+ SAT scores and fat wallets — is bad news for the economy up North. While in school, East Coast transplants will take their spring break in Myrtle Beach instead of Martha's Vineyard. They'll eat biscuits and gravy instead of pork roll egg and cheeses. And after they graduate, a bunch of them will "end up using their skills to drive economic growth elsewhere," Conor argues.

Jobs on Jobs on Jobs

Speaking of economic growth: The US gained an unexpected 254,000 jobs in September. Friday's cuckoo bananas report has four significant takeaways, by Mohamed El-Erian's estimate

  1. The labor market is strong.
  2. US "economic exceptionalism" is real.
  3. The Fed is not a one-track central bank.
  4. The market should rethink big rate cuts.

John Authers agrees on that last one, saying "we can pencil in a 25-basis-point cut for next month." He's also looking forward to reviewing Thursday's inflation data: "It's hard to see how it can create a surprise to counteract what has just come from the payrolls," he argues.

Claudia Sahm agrees, saying the jobs data is "a welcome surprise" but noting "a sustained turnaround in hiring will take time."

The labor market is cooling, but plenty of hurdles remain: "Companies aren't so worried that they're letting a lot of people go, but they're not so confident that they're hiring a lot of people," she writes.

Bonus Need-a-Job Reading:

  • Workers deserve financial breathing room should they confront a job loss, a sudden car repair or any other unforeseen event. — Erin Lowry
  • Common wisdom about generative AI is that it will displace lots of professional jobs. The more nuanced take: It'll take lots of entry-level jobs. — Parmy Olson

Telltale Charts

China is awfully curious about Cambodia these days, and it has nothing to do with fermented mudfishKarishma Vaswani says "Beijing has invested heavily in its neighbor, building key infrastructure projects" like this $1.7 billion canal that stretches over 180 kilometers. "But with economic largesse has come increased political influence," she writes. "Ignoring that would cede more power to the world's second-largest economy in a region that is at risk of drifting away from Washington."

Now, the moment you've all been waiting for: Bloomberg's editorial board has weighed in on Eric Adams. The editors say that while the mayor deserves to have his day in court, as all citizens do, he "has an obligation to convince the public he's still worthy of their trust." Considering yet another one of Adams' top aides resigned today — this time, Philip Banks, the deputy mayor for public safety — it doesn't seem like he's making much headway in the trust department. "A staggering 69% of New Yorkers, including 71% of Democrats, say the mayor should resign," the editors write. "If he's going to remain in office, as he says he will, he needs to offer a plausible explanation of his conduct."

Further Reading

A year after Oct. 7, military force has substituted for strategy, and that's a mistake. — Marc Champion

LVMH's partnership with F1 puts Bernard Arnault in the driver's seat . — Andrea Felsted

Donald Trump's plans for mass deportation aren't just cruel, they're expensive. — Francis Wilkinson

Elon Musk's robotaxi needs to come with a time machine. — Liam Denning

Britain's football-loving elite like to think of themselves as ordinary folk. — Adrian Wooldridge

The era of the tasting menu is coming to an end. — Howard Chua-Eoan

Investors need to decide whether Chinese stocks are on the cusp of a re-rating. —  Shuli Ren

ICYMI

Hurricane Milton is dangerously intense.

Costco's gold bars are flying off the shelves.

Acne creams are full of cancerous chemicals.

Kickers

The disappearing birthday cake.

Ice cream sandwiches get political.

The Garden State is trying (and failing) to attract tourists.

Notes: Please send an all-expenses-paid trip to New Jersey and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

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