Friday, October 25, 2024

Hopes fade for Middle East deal

The Middle East appears no closer to a cease-fire deal

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US President Joe Biden's administration is running out of time to halt the spiraling Middle East violence that could damage Kamala Harris' chances in the Nov. 5 presidential election.

Negotiators from Israel and Hamas are said to be preparing to restart cease-fire talks on Gaza. But US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's 11th visit to the region since the Gaza conflict started last year hasn't yielded any tangible progress toward a halt to Israel's fight against Iran-backed Hamas and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

In Gaza, Hamas seems reluctant to compromise even after its leader Yahya Sinwar's death. At the same time, Israel is determined to pursue its attacks on the two groups as it's poised to retaliate for Iran's massive missile assault against it on Oct. 1.

That raises the specter of escalating tit-for-tat attacks between Iran and Israel, amid US concerns that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could order a strike on energy or nuclear targets.

WATCH:  Bloomberg's Stuart Livingstone-Wallace discusses the prospects for a cease-fire. Source: Bloomberg

The violence has sparked protests across the world and left progressive voters in the US angry with the Biden-Harris administration's failure to bring peace.

Biden has tried to convince Netanyahu to endorse a postwar scenario for Gaza and the occupied West Bank that would involve the moderate Palestinian Authority and Arab nations. That, in turn, could unlock a historic detente between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Netanyahu is also under pressure from right-wing allies in his fragile coalition government who view any move to establish an independent Palestinian state as anathema.

While Netanyahu has said Sinwar's killing last week could help Israel to achieve its war goals, he's vowed to keep up the pressure on Hamas and Hezbollah.

More than a year since Hamas' deadly Oct. 7 attack on Israel, hopes for any letup soon in the conflict in Gaza and fighting in Lebanon are quickly fading.

A woman walks past destroyed buildings in Khan Yunis, Gaza, on Oct. 17. Photographer: Bashar Taleb/AFP/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

Donald Trump is more on the minds of the world's financial leaders gathered in Washington for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank than the technical stuff they ostensibly are there to discuss: debt, inflation, interest rates. At public seminars and panels, or behind closed doors at steak-house dinners, discussion kept turning to the US election, which some officials speak of alongside top risks to global stability such as wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Mozambique's ruling-party candidate, Daniel Chapo, was declared the runaway winner of a presidential ballot as tensions over fraud claims put the southeast African nation on edge. Protesters poured into the streets of the capital, Maputo, and blocked main routes with burning tires after the announcement. Second-place finisher Venâncio Mondlane has rejected the process and outcome as rigged and called for a two-day national shutdown.

Protesters with a poster of Mondlane in Maputo yesterday. Photographer: Alfredo Zuniga/AFP/Getty Images

China is embarking on a charm offensive with US allies and partners as it contemplates a potential Trump return to power and its own economic troubles. From proclaiming a desired "fresh start" with Japan to a detente with India and signaling its intent to improve ties with the UK and Australia, Beijing has sought to dial down diplomatic friction in anticipation of a possible return of an unpredictable American president.

The European Union said there are "significant remaining gaps" with Beijing after eight rounds of negotiations aimed at avoiding tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles due to kick in by the end of this month. The two sides have discussed whether an agreement can be reached on so-called price undertakings, a complex mechanism to control the prices and volumes of exports that could replace the anti-subsidy levies.

The goal of keeping global warming below 1.5C will soon be dead because of a chronic lack of ambition and action by countries across the world, the United Nations said in a report. Continuing with current policies could mean a temperature rise of 3.1C compared with pre-industrial levels before the end of the century, while implementing promised reforms would at best lead to an increase of 2.6C — well above the level at which critical climate tipping points may be breached.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he's willing to have discussions with other Commonwealth countries about Britain's past slave trade but won't provide reparations.

South Korea expects to keep strong ties with the US regardless of the election outcome and will look for opportunities in the ongoing competition between Washington and Beijing, Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok said in an interview with Bloomberg.

Rock legend Bruce Springsteen and former President Barack Obama appeared with Vice President Harris to turn out the vote in swing-state Georgia, a key battleground where voting is already underway.

Washington Dispatch

Elon Musk, the world's richest person, gave another $56 million to elect Trump and other Republicans in the final weeks of the 2024 election, bringing his total to at least $132 million spent to elevate allies to the White House and Congress, federal filings show.

The donations — detailed in disclosures with the Federal Election Commission — show that Musk, the Tesla and SpaceX chief executive officer, has poured money into the Washington trifecta: for Trump's White House campaign as well as support of Republicans running for the House and Senate.

The filings were made public yesterday, the same day that Musk added $33.5 billion to his net worth as Tesla shares posted their biggest gain in more than a decade.

He is playing an unprecedented role in the 2024 campaign for a political donor, appearing at numerous campaign rallies. The Justice Department sent a letter to his super PAC this week warning that a program to give $1 million a day to registered voters in swing states who sign an online petition may violate federal laws.

One thing to watch today: Trump will record an interview with The Joe Rogan Experience podcast.

Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television.

Chart of the Day

Switzerland's efforts to forge closer links with the EU are going to prove a hard sell with voters, according to a new poll showing that about half are skeptical about the bloc. The survey comes as long-running talks between Swiss and EU officials on a revamp of bilateral relations enter the final stretch. If those negotiations yield a deal, that will have to be put to the nation in a referendum.

And Finally

History hasn't been kind to Chemnitz, an industrial city in the former East Germany. Substantially destroyed in World War II, occupied by the Red Army and its name forcibly changed to Karl-Marx-Stadt, the city suffered mass job losses and depopulation after German reunification in 1990, leading to political extremism. Now it's got a chance to rehabilitate its image and rebuild some self confidence as European Capital of Culture 2025 — and if it succeeds, offer a model for cities with similar societal divides elsewhere.

A bronze sculpture of Karl Marx in Chemnitz. Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg

Pop quiz (no cheating!) Which global leader canceled a trip to a BRICS summit in Russia after injuring his head? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net

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