Thursday, October 17, 2024

Brussels Edition: A climate backlash

The EU's signature Green Deal package of climate legislation is under threat like never before

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

The EU's signature Green Deal is under threat like never before. The bloc spent the past few years locking down an ambitious plan to make the bloc climate-neutral by 2050, become a world leader in climate policy and in the process transform prized industries like agriculture and automobiles. Now, a politically painful reality is setting in. As heating and transport costs climb and Europe moves rightward, the European Commission is under pressure to water down some of its rules. It's already postponed a few, including a law tackling deforestation. Countries are balking at implementing legislation they have already approved and the commission will have to decide how much it can pressure them to stick to the agreements. At stake isn't just the EU's ambitious climate targets, but also its credibility. 

Saim Saeed

What's Happening

Trump Play | Viktor Orban once again blocked EU efforts to tweak its sanctions regime against Russia, a step needed to unlock significant US participation in a $50 billion loan to Ukraine. The Hungarian leader refused to budge during an EU summit in Brussels, following through on his promises to delay any decision until after the US election, in which he's rooting for Donald Trump. Polish President Donald Tusk also said Volodymyr Zelenskiy's "victory plan" would be "reassessed" after the US vote.

Calculating Wealth | The EU has warned the social media company X that it might calculate any fines it decides to impose under the bloc's digital rules by including revenue from owner Elon Musk's other businesses, we're told. The threat would significantly raise any potential penalties Musk could pay if the commission decides X has violates EU content moderation rules. 

Migration Talks | Pushed by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Europe's leaders began trying to map out a stricter migration policy as countries are under pressure to reduce the number of arrivals. Italy's policy of removing arrivals to Albania has been divisive, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz saying it won't work for Germany.

New Challenges | The European Central Bank is correct to be preparing lenders for threats that were difficult to imagine a decade ago, according to an official who help set up its oversight arm. The central bank's work to make banks ready for risks including geopolitical shocks or cyber attacks is "a reaction to the increasing uncertainties we currently experience," said Sabine Lautenschlaeger, who was vice Chair of the ECB's Supervisory Board from its start in 2014 to 2019. "The last decade was about capital. The next decade will be about operational resilience." 

Around Europe

Parliament Scrutiny | A widely used French tax scheme that lowers inheritance tax rates could be scrapped as French lawmakers parse through Prime Minister Michel Barnier's proposed budget. The bill, which includes temporary tax hikes for companies and wealthy individuals, didn't initially include the inheritance tax scheme but over 40 amendments from the left of France's divided parliament have left its fate in the balance. 

Battery Rescue | Northvolt is closing in on a $300 million rescue package that includes debt and equity, we're told, buying time for the cash-strapped Swedish battery maker to stabilize production and line up longer-term financing. The stopgap funding would buy time for the struggling electric-vehicle supplier to secure more-permanent funding that would put it on a path toward self-sustainability.

Pricey Bottles | Besides climate change and declining sales, Italy's winemakers face a third, less explored misfortune: the soaring cost of their debts. Combined, their interest costs will rise to €306 million this year from €126 million in 2022. The extra costs are hitting red wines in particular, which were already struggling with young drinkers who prefer craft beers or fizzy whites.

Still Waiting | Thousands of people have applied for Portugal's golden visa program, which promises investors a path to citizenship. But many are stuck in limbo as the country struggles to deal with a massive inflow of immigrants, pushing waiting times to more than a year. Now, the applicants are taking legal action. 

Chart of the Day

The European Central Bank lowered interest rates for the third time this year as a hastier retreat in inflation allowed it to offer support to the region's stuttering economy. The key deposit rate was cut by a quarter-point to 3.25% — as predicted in a Bloomberg survey. We're told that ECB officials reckon another interest-rate cut in December is highly likely, with inflation to settle at 2% faster than envisaged.

Today's Agenda

All times CET

  • 9 a.m. EU Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis participates in a panel to discuss the war in Ukraine
  • EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell participates in the G-7 Ministerial meeting on defense in Naples
  • EU trade ministers hold informal meeting in Budapest
  • 12 p.m. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte briefs after two-day defense ministers meeting in Brussels
  • US President Joe Biden joins meeting with Germany Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Berlin

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