Tuesday, October 1, 2024

5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Asia

Good morning. Boeing considers raising at least $10 billion. Samsung is laying off workers in Asia-Pacific. Ray Dalio says China's surge of

Good morning. Boeing considers raising at least $10 billion. Samsung is laying off workers in Asia-Pacific. Ray Dalio says China's surge of market stimulus may be turning point. Here's what's moving markets. —Isabelle Lee

Haven assets

The persistent rally in stocks faltered as investors retreated to safer corners of the market amid the intensifying conflict in the Middle East. Haven assets were bid up, with bonds, oil, gold and the US dollar all rising after Iran fired a barrage of missiles at Israel following raids by armed forces into Lebanon. The US said it is working with Israel on a response. The tech sector was the worst performer, with Apple and Nvidia sinking around 3%. The Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 fell while Treasuries held onto an advance. Wall Street's fear gauge, the VIX, spiked higher.

Raising funds

Boeing is considering raising at least $10 billion by selling new stock, as the planemaker seeks to replenish cash reserves depleted by an ongoing strike, sources told Bloomberg. The company is working with advisers to explore its options. Raising equity isn't likely to happen for at least a month, assuming the company can resolve the walkout, they said. Boeing is under pressure to shore up its finances and hold onto its investment-grade credit rating. The company is one step away from dropping into speculative territory, which would further drive up the cost to service its $58 billion debt load. 

Tough market

Samsung is laying off workers in Southeast Asia, Australia and New Zealand as part of a plan to reduce global headcount by thousands of jobs, sources told Bloomberg. The move could affect about 10% of the workforce in those markets, although the numbers for each subsidiary may vary. Job cuts are planned for other overseas subsidiaries and could reach 10% in certain markets, they said. The South Korean company has about 147,000 staff overseas, more than half of its total employees, according to its latest sustainability report. It's not planning layoffs in its home market. 

Whatever it takes

Ray Dalio says China's surge of market stimulus will be a historic turning point for the nation, if officials in Beijing deliver "a lot more" than pledged. The comments came after Chinese stocks posted the biggest rally since 2008 following a policy blitz last week. China's leaders have also pledged to support fiscal spending and stabilize the beleaguered property sector. Dalio drew a parallel between President Xi Jinping's moves and the time in 2012 when then ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to "do whatever it takes" to preserve the euro. Draghi's speech helped draw a line under the debt crisis.

Coming up . . .

US vice presidential nominees JD Vance and Tim Walz will face off for their first and potentially only debate before the November election. Set in New York, the debate will be the first time Vance, Donald Trump's running mate, and Walz, Kamala Harris' pick, appear on a stage together after relentless attacks against each other on the campaign trail. 

What we've been reading

Here's what caught our eye over the past 24 hours: 

And finally, here's what Ed is interested in today

Data on Tuesday were mixed regarding the health of the US labor market. But the numbers didn't change the overall risk-off tone that had developed after reports of an imminent Iranian strike on Israel lifted Treasuries and hurt equities. In that context, hopes of another 50-basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve will continue to put a floor under Treasury prices, with Friday's US employment numbers perhaps the most decisive economic data until the November FOMC meeting.

Renaissance Macro's Neil Dutta perfectly captured the mood in an appearance on Bloomberg Surveillance, signaling his belief that there remains upward pressure on the US unemployment rate for the September number to be released Friday, with the eventual October number to be pushed even higher by numerous factors including floods and strikes.

Even so, the JOLTS figure Tuesday showed a big uptick in job openings. And while the ISM employment number was below 50, signaling US manufacturing job losses, it was improved in September from August. ADP's private US payrolls later Wednesday, followed by jobless claims and ISM Services on Thursday, mean we get three more looks at US employment data ahead of Friday's big number.

The market is pricing in less than even odds of a 50-basis point reduction for November. But weak payrolls have the opportunity to push those odds firmly over 50%. And given the burgeoning headwinds to October payrolls, Friday's nonfarm payroll data could be the crucial print in cementing yet another large rate cut from the Fed.

Ed Harrison writes the Everything Risk newsletter. Follow him on X at @edwardnh.

Stay updated by saving our new email address

Our email address is changing, which means you'll be receiving this newsletter from noreply@news.bloomberg.com. Here's how to update your contacts to ensure you continue receiving it:

  • Gmail: Open an email from Bloomberg, click the three dots in the top right corner, select "Mark as important."
  • Outlook: Right-click on Bloomberg's email address and select "Add to Outlook Contacts."
  • Apple Mail: Open the email, click on Bloomberg's email address, and select "Add to Contacts" or "Add to VIPs."
  • Yahoo Mail: Open an email from Bloomberg, hover over the email address, click "Add to Contacts."

No comments:

Post a Comment

October 9th - Massive AI Deadline!

You might think you already missed out on the AI boom... October 9th - Massiv...