Tuesday, October 1, 2024

5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Americas

Good morning. Powell sees cuts coming "over time," Boeing considers raising $10 billion and a major walkout by US port workers. Here's what'

Good morning. Powell sees cuts coming "over time," Boeing considers raising $10 billion and a major walkout by US port workers. Here's what's moving markets. — Sam Unsted

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Powell on rates

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank will lower interest rates "over time" and again emphasized that the US economy remains on solid ground. Speaking at an event in Nashville, Powell reiterated confidence that inflation will keep moving toward the Fed's 2% target and added that "we are not on any preset course." BlackRock Chief Executive Larry Fink, meanwhile, said the market is pricing in too many rate cuts from the Fed.

Muted markets

US stock futures are edging lower, Treasuries are gaining and the dollar has climbed, given a boost by Powell's comments pointing to gradual rate cuts. Oil prices are slipping on worries about rising supplies. The JOLTS job openings report and ISM manufacturing data is on the slate, while herbs and spices maker McCormick will report earnings, with sportswear giant Nike to follow after markets close in New York.

Boeing funds

Boeing is considering raising at least $10 billion by selling new shares as it looks to replenish its cash reserves amid the strike action currently crippling its factories. The plane manufacturer is working with advisers to explore its options and raising the money isn't likely to happen for at least a month on the assumption Boeing can resolve the walkout by 33,000 workers, people familiar with the discussions said. Its cash reserves have dwindled since an accident in January forced it to slow production of the 737 Max airliner.

Port strike

Dockworkers have started walking out of every major port on the East and Gulf coasts of the US, kicking off a strike which may ripple through the economy and spark political turmoil with the election only weeks away. The ports impacted by the industrial action have the combined capacity to handle as much as half of all US trade volumes, and the strike will halt container cargo and auto shipments.

China's turnaround

The bout of stimulus measures launched in China has helped fuel a sharp turnaround in the fortunes of domestic stocks. Having been dumped from global portfolios, Chinese equities are now outperforming other emerging-market stocks by the biggest margin since 1999. The surge, however, has barely registered with US traders, underlining China's limited role in driving the US economy and skepticism that the stimulus push will fix the deep-seated problem in the country..

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. 

Is private credit unstoppable? Will the popularity of the alternative investment only grow, boosting the market from roughly $1.7 trillion to $25 trillion, as one of its powerhouses, Blackstone, sees it? If so, where is the next opportunity, in Asia? What about the public credit, what's the most attractive section of that market? Share your views in a quick MLIV Pulse survey.

And finally, here's what Joe's interested in this morning

It's Jobs Week. On Friday, we get the latest Non-Farm Payrolls report, with economists expecting 150,000 new jobs and for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.2%.

Yesterday, we heard from Powell, and he indicated that more cuts are coming. But he didn't seem in any particular hurry about the pace.

In a note to clients, Peter Williams of 22V Research writes that "Powell Sounds Like Someone Who Saw Much of His Recession Risk Drop Away Last Week."

Indeed, by and large, data seems ok. We got some revisions to past data last week showing things have been a bit stronger than expected. We also got the savings rate revised upward. Meanwhile, risk assets continue to be on a tear. The S&P 500 closed at fresh all-time highs.

On the one hand, you could argue that stocks are booming because the Fed has staked out an aggressive position to forestall a recession. On the other hand, you could argue that with risk assets so strong, and growth still looking solid, it's weird for the Fed to be continue with an aggressive sequence of rate cuts. It all depends on how you conceive of the logical sequencing here.

A week ago, the market was pricing in about a coinflip as to whether the next Fed move in November would be 50 or 25 basis points. As of now, the market is leaning more towards 25, though 50 is still in play.

If we get a clunker of a Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday, then that will probably mean it's going to come down to the wire again, and we won't be able to dismiss 50, even if for now, Fed officials are sounding a bit more conservative.

Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on X @TheStalwart

Bloomberg Markets Wrap: The latest on what's moving global markets. Tap to read.

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