Monday, October 7, 2024

5 things to start your day: Europe

Good morning. China's world-beating stock rally fizzles. Oil falls despite lingering Middle East risks. Caution emerges over the pace of int

Good morning. China's world-beating stock rally fizzles. Oil falls despite lingering Middle East risks. Caution emerges over the pace of interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Here's what people are talking about.

Five Things will publish its last edition this Friday, Oct. 11. To keep you up to speed, you will automatically begin receiving the new, more expansive subscriber-only Markets Daily newsletter starting Oct. 14. Not a Bloomberg.com subscriber yet? You'll get a complimentary trial of Markets Daily.

China underwhelms

A rally in onshore Chinese stocks after a week-long holiday fizzled as their world-beating gains lost momentum. That comes as a government briefing expected to unveil more economic stimulus measures underwhelmed investors. Shares in Hong Kong tumbled, and a gauge of Chinese stocks in the city saw its worst intraday tumble since 2008. Broader Asian equities dropped after Wall Street was dragged by a tech selloff, geopolitical angst and bets on a smaller rate cut by the Federal Reserve. MSCI's Asia-Pacific equity index dropped the most in a month. The downbeat mood looks set to spill over to Europe, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures also lower.

Read more on this from Garfield, below.

Beijing pivot

While Beijing's stimulus pivot sparked fevered stock buying from hedge funds and individual investors, big asset allocators and multinational companies are wary of rushing back into Asia's largest economy. China said on Tuesday it's confident in reaching its economic targets this year and promised to further support growth, although it held back in unleashing more major measures. "We are fully confident in achieving the annual economic and social development targets," said Zheng Shanjie, the chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's economic planning agency. He noted China is facing a more complex environment at home and abroad.

Oil slumps

Oil is also having a rough day even as geopolitical risks linger. Brent crude tumbled below $80 a barrel as disappointment over China sparked a risk-off mood across markets. Still, the oil market remains susceptible to a flare-up in tensions around the Middle East. Traders are watching for Israel's retaliation against Iran following a missile attack last week, which raised concerns over an all-out war. Elsewhere in commodities, industrial metals declined led by copper, with iron ore futures underperforming.

Gradual pace

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said he supported the central bank's decision last month to lower rates by a half point, but emphasized he'd prefer further reductions to be gradual. "Given where the economy is today, I view the costs of easing too much too soon as greater than the costs of easing too little too late," Musalem said Monday. Economic projections released after the September meeting showed the median policymaker penciled in another half-point cut this year, implying a quarter-point reduction at each of the Fed's two remaining 2024 meetings. Investors will hear more from other Fed speakers today, including Bostic, Collins and Jefferson.

'Exit tax'

Senior economists and think tanks have urged the Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves to introduce an "exit tax" on the wealthy to raise as much as £500 million ($650 million) a year and discourage departures. The proposal comes as Reeves seeks to close a mid-year deficit of £22 billion without scaring off Britain's wealth creators. A number of people have have threatened to leave the nation over the prospect of tax increases and Reeves is considering watering down her plans for wealthy "non-dom" foreign residents in the UK. Reeves hasn't ruled out a potential increase in the capital gains tax. She prepares to deliver her first budget on Oct. 30.

Coming up

As for today's economic data, we get France trade and Germany industrial production, along with Netherlands CPI and US trade. Sweden's Riksbank Deputy Governor Bunge speaks.

What we've been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours.

And finally, here's what Garfield is interested in this morning:

China just delivered another in a series of stimulus disappointments that help explain why its equities have lagged so far behind major peers over the past five years. While the authorities may ultimately deliver something like the sort of stimulus needed to turn around the world's second-largest economy, Tuesday's tone-deaf press conference means mainland stocks will be stuck singing the blues. 

The bold announcements that came in the final days of September had energized investors to reconsider the low to non-existent allocations they had made to Chinese assets. Frustrated by China's glacial response to a deepening deterioration in its economy — and bruised by a series of policy flip-flops that had often hit the highest-flying shares the hardest — major international portfolio managers were handling the country's stocks with kid gloves. Sure, they seemed to be saying, those shares are much cheaper than those of most major economies based on standard valuation measures, but that seems all too reasonable given recent history. 

As things now stand, China's bait-and-switch stimulus is likely to reinforce a willingness to apply hefty risk premiums for the nation's shares. The optics of laying the groundwork for the 11% opening surge for the CSI 300 Index seen Tuesday, and then underwhelming at the marquee event for the day — at one stage the equity index was threatening to erase all those gains — are poor to say the least.

Even if the authorities ultimately succeed in turning the economy around, investors just received a fresh reminder of the dangers of piling in to China in response to government rhetoric about bold stimulus plans. Indeed, they just added another incident to the long list of rapid reversals that help to encourage traders to book profits at the earliest opportunity whenever Chinese equities stage an impressive rally.

Garfield Reynolds leads Bloomberg's Markets Live blog in Asia and is based in Sydney.

Stay updated by saving our new email address

Our email address is changing, which means you'll be receiving this newsletter from noreply@news.bloomberg.com. Here's how to update your contacts to ensure you continue receiving it:

  • Gmail: Open an email from Bloomberg, click the three dots in the top right corner, select "Mark as important."
  • Outlook: Right-click on Bloomberg's email address and select "Add to Outlook Contacts."
  • Apple Mail: Open the email, click on Bloomberg's email address, and select "Add to Contacts" or "Add to VIPs."
  • Yahoo Mail: Open an email from Bloomberg, hover over the email address, click "Add to Contacts."

No comments:

Post a Comment