Wednesday, September 18, 2024

The rate cuts are here! The rate cuts are here!

And the Fed signals more are on the way

The Fed rate cut is finally here, writes Bloomberg's Enda Curran, but the talk of the town will be how many more trims are on the way. Plus: The Trump campaign's mastery of misinformation, and a better way to rideshare.

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After a tortured buildup, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut interest rates by 50 basis points and signaled that more relief is on the way. That the Fed thinks it's brought inflation under control without having blown up the labor market and can now lower borrowing costs is a significant moment in US economic history.

"This was a huge victory for Jay Powell," KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk told Bloomberg Television, making the point that the Fed chair succeeded in getting fellow policymakers to agree to a 50-basis-point move.

How did we get here? It's easy to forget, but at the start of the year, Wall Street was betting that the Fed would be cutting by March, as inflation slowed. When that didn't happen, the bets shifted to lower interest rates by June. When that didn't happen, the focus changed to September after Powell made it clear in August that "the time has come."

Powell at his news conference Wednesday in Washington. Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg

The big change over the past few months has been a weaker than expected jobs market, which has clearly spooked policymakers. Although layoffs remain contained, the unemployment rate has crept up to 4.2% (from 3.4% in spring 2023) and companies are clearly hiring at a slower pace (they added the fewest jobs last month since the start of 2021).

With inflation slowing, many Fed watchers were warning that the central bank was in danger of blowing a soft landing. Hence the need for policymakers to bring down borrowing costs.

For all the significance of the moment, today's rate cuts won't exactly be an immediate game changer for households or business. Borrowing costs remain high compared with where they were for most of the past 15 years, which means the cost of mortgages and loans remains expensive. That will continue to act as a weight on consumer spending and business investment. Still, more important than the rate cut itself is the signal that more is ahead. That's the key variable to rev up animal spirits and to ensure the economy remains on track for a soft landing.

Most of the Fed-watching world thinks it's clear that more cuts are coming, which will encourage people to buy and sell homes. Projections released by the Fed show a narrow majority, 10 of 19 officials, favors lowering rates by at least an additional half-point over its two remaining 2024 meetings.

Mohamed El-Erian, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and the president of Queens' College, Cambridge, is among those who say more relief is on the way. "This is a dovish 50-basis-points cut, " he said on Bloomberg Television.

And don't mention the R-word—that's the gist of the reaction from Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management: "We have a Fed that will go to historic lengths to avoid a hard landing. Recession, what recession?"

Read more: Bloomberg's live blog on the rate cut and Powell's news conference

In Brief

Trump's Misinformation Is Still Captivating 

Donald Trump at the presidential debate in Philadelphia on Sept. 10. Photographer: Win McNamee/Getty Images North America

It's doubtful anybody anticipated that the enduring story coming out of the Sept. 10 US presidential debate would be a hair-raising piece of misinformation: Donald Trump's claim that Haitian immigrants in Ohio are eating their neighbors' dogs and cats.

But a week after more than 67 million people tuned in to watch Trump and Kamala Harris square off on a Philadelphia stage, the charge has sparked hundreds of stories and additional news cycles, as partisans fight over the validity of the claim and reporters swarm Springfield, Ohio, to document the local fallout. Trump's struggles during the debate to explain his views on abortion or elucidate his "concepts of a plan" to replace Obamacare have been mostly forgotten.

A rational-minded debate viewer might have assumed that Trump's charge about migrants kidnapping and eating pets would boomerang and hurt him with the swing state voters he needs to win the election. But experts on misinformation say that's not how it generally works. "The vast majority of people don't follow day-to-day political news," says Jiore Craig, a senior research follow at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue who studies misinformation. "Their impressions are formed a week or two later based on what everyone is talking about. Trump's 'cats and dogs' line and Taylor Swift's endorsement of Harris are what's taking up most of the oxygen."

Read more from Businessweek national correspondent Joshua Green on how the former president knows how to get everybody talking—for better or worse: Trump's Pet-Eating Rant Was an Effective Act of Misdirection

Writing the New Rules of the Road

Photographer: Marcus McDonald for Bloomberg Businessweek

For years, Uber Technologies Inc. and Lyft Inc. have squared off against local authorities and labor groups to keep drivers classified as independent contractors rather than employees.

The designation excludes workers from traditional employment rights such as a flat minimum wage and union protections. In exchange, the ride-hailing companies have generally been expected to provide drivers with some of the benefits—but not all—that they would receive as employees.

What's resulted is a patchwork of idiosyncratic rules and regulations that vary widely from city to city and state to state. Is there a better way to do this?

In a new Common Ground column, Evan Gorelick takes a look at the case for and against making drivers employees and seeks to find an elegant compromise: How to Keep Uber and Lyft Rides Affordable and Make Drivers Happy

Musk Tests the Limits of Free Speech

Photo illustration by 731. Photos: NASA (1), Getty Images (3)

On the latest episode of the Elon, Inc. podcast, the panelists talk about two very different kinds of Elon Musk stories. One is about his behavior on X and the rare tweet he took down. The other is about how his SpaceX is having a great run of late, with a successful space walk and a new deal with United Airlines.

Listen and subscribe to Elon, Inc. on AppleSpotifyiHeart and the Bloomberg Terminal.

Help Wanted

6 million
That's the deficit of workers that US employers will face within a decade, according to a study by Lightcast, a provider of labor market data. With the population growing at a much faster pace than the workforce, mismatches between workers and available jobs will exacerbate the shortages.

Messi Mania

"I was anticipating that here in Miami it would be amazing, we would sell out stadiums. But when you see the reaction when we travel, they're full for Messi."
Jorge Mas
Billionaire managing owner of Inter Miami
MLS team values have surged $3.2 billion since Argentine superstar Lionel Messi arrived in Miami. Now the US soccer league contemplates what happens after he retires.

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