| If Keir Starmer went into the Labour conference under pressure over free gifts, he has come back with a better kind of gift. And this time, it's one we can all enjoy: the OECD has upgraded its predictions for the UK economy by more than for any other G-7 nation, giving it the second-fastest growth in the group, after the US. Given it is based on over-performance in the first half of the year, the new government can't take much credit, but even so, as Philip Aldrick says, it's "a boon for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who was elected in July on a promise to achieve the fastest growth in the group of advanced economies." Take a look at this graph – while it's clear we remain still quite far behind the US and narrowly at the front of the rest of the pack, it's still welcome news. Slightly less positive are forecasts that inflation will be stickier in the UK than elsewhere, with predicted increases above 2% for both this year and next, suggesting the Bank of England will have to "move more slowly to cut interest rates than other central banks." Combine that with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's comments last week that rates would be reduced "gradually," and it seems the pace could be slow and steady. In many countries inflation has largely been wrestled to the ground, giving central banks the green light to cut rates. But Philip tells us that in the UK, OECD officials are worried about impending increases in labor costs, including expected rises in the minimum wage next year. The PM, who is at the UN General Assembly today in New York, also won't be pleased to hear that back at Labour conference in Liverpool, two unions have won a non-binding vote calling on the government to cut winter fuel payments. While the vote has no binding impact, it's still quite a moment – we are not even three months into this government and already its rank and file have risen up against it. So, where is the new, bold thinking and sense of purpose this team so desperately needs? Bloomberg's team got a promising lead — that the government could change its fiscal rules to borrow to invest. It feels like Labour advisers are testing the waters on how markets would react to the government increasing the amount that can be put into public services, without charges of profligacy. Handled badly, it could be a Trussian conflagration. Handled well, and it's pitch-rolling for a big change coming: more generous sums put into a sovereign wealth fund, the national wealth fund and Great British Energy. Who knows, maybe even the infamous £28 billion in environmental spending that was dropped before the election could now be back on the table. Want this in your inbox each weekday? You can sign up here. | 
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