September is already proving to be a challenging month for oil, with WTI crude breaking below the big round number of $70 a barrel. More rough days are likely with price risks tilted to further downside.
Brent is also not far from the level, hovering near $73. The global benchmark for crude slid to the lowest level of the year, erasing all its 2024 gains. The overall picture was already bearish on concern over worsening demand in China, the biggest crude buyer, while a return of OPEC+ supplies is looming later this year. More recently, signs of a possible easing of political unrest in Libya hurt sentiment further. The latest economic data out of China has underwhelmed again and again. Moreover, the broader state of global manufacturing deteriorated further, with the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI index sliding before 50 for a second month in August. Thus, the stakes are high as all eyes focus on OPEC+'s next move. Indications are that the group is leaning toward reviving production as planned in October. The alliance has said previously it could pause or reverse hikes if necessary. Even if the group cancels scheduled output hikes, inventories will accumulate next year amid booming supplies from the US and elsewhere, according to the the International Energy Agency last month. Taken together, all this seems to suggest oil traders will be on edge while the commodity will likely struggle to reverse the current downtrend in a sustained manner. Sungwoo Park is an editor on the Asia Markets Live team based in Singapore. |
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