Friday, August 16, 2024

Supply Lines: Shipping Ukraine's grain

When Russia's invasion blocked Ukraine's Black Sea ports, grain traders turned to river, rail and road routes to keep crop exports flowing.F

When Russia's invasion blocked Ukraine's Black Sea ports, grain traders turned to river, rail and road routes to keep crop exports flowing.

Fast forward to today, and crucial deep-sea ports are again shipping out hefty amounts. Yet major merchant Nibulon plans to keep exporting large volumes via much more expensive river routes.

While river cargoes barely turn a profit for the company, its CEO says it's important to have a ready-to-use alternative in case Russian attacks cripple Odesa's ports again. He also expects it to have the knock-on effect of discouraging Russian strikes on Black Sea terminals as it makes such attacks less debilitating to the export industry.

"The very fact that we have alternatives provides protection for Odesa ports," Nibulon CEO Andriy Vadaturskyy said in an interview. That's "because Russia will understand that its spending for missile strikes will not deliver the effect they look for and the shipments will not stop."

Ukraine is a key grain supplier, sending staples like wheat and corn around the world, most of which traditionally goes via the Black Sea. Using whatever export routes are available since the war began has helped to keep a lid on global prices and bring in vital income for Kyiv.

The country's deep-sea ports have continually been attacked by Russia. River operations that send smaller ships to destinations such as Europe or Egypt, or to Romania for transshipment, have also been attacked. A missile hit a Louis Dreyfus facility in Odesa on Wednesday, though the company said there should be no material disruptions to terminal operations.

Half of Nibulon's shipments currently go through the Black Sea and half via the Danube River, where export costs are about $6-$7 a ton higher.

Nibulon's Danube routes are currently operating at about a third of capacity, Vadaturskyy said. The unused capacity could be crucial if traders need to suddenly switch more volume away from Black Sea terminals.

"We should not think that exports through Odesa ports are guaranteed," the CEO said. "This is the right time to prepare for any challenges and have alternatives when the economy suffers."

Kateryna Chursina in Kyiv and Áine Quinn in London

Charted Territory

Seeking wheat | Egypt's state buyer bought less than a 10th of the wheat it had targeted in a bumper tender, highlighting the challenges of securing big supplies months in advance. GASC bought 280,000 tons from Ukraine and Bulgaria for October and November delivery in a tender that closed Monday. It had been looking to buy as much as 3.8 million tons of wheat for delivery ranging from October to April. (Read the full story here). 

Today's Must Reads

  • The cost of the cheapest brands of food and drink in the UK surged more than that of premium brands over the past two years, leaving the poorest people in the country shouldering the highest burden from inflation, an analysis showed.
  • In a throwback to Soviet-era misinformation, Kazakhstan's deputy prime minister said regional officials overestimated the grain harvest by as much as 3 million tons last year as they sought to win favor with the country's leadership.
  • Southern African nations battling the fallout of a record El Niño-induced drought this year will need to import at least an additional 3 million tons of corn in the coming months, driving up food costs, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network said.
  • Starbucks is looking to experiment with store formats and beverages in its bid to double store count in India amid a slump in US and Chinese sales.
  • Mars agreed to buy Kellanova for nearly $36 billion including debt, bringing together two major food companies in the biggest deal of the year.
  • California just experienced its hottest July on record. What that means for this year's tomato yield is still an open question.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • Coffee's gravity-defying prices could soon settle into a more mellow range as output improves with weather, although it may take time for consumers to notice, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
  • UK farmers are investing in trees to avert climate failure, BloombergNEF writes.
  • Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints. 
  • For freight dashboards, see {BI RAIL}, {BI TRCK} and {BI SHIP} and {BI 3PLS}
  • Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
  • On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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