Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Turning the tables on Iran

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Israel is trying to turn the tables in Iran's proxy war against it.

Back-to-back hits on senior Hezbollah and Hamas figures far from Israel's battlegrounds have brought the fight to enemy turf. That the latter took place in Tehran, upstaging the inauguration of the new Iranian president, squared with Israeli threats to strike the "head of the octopus" rather than merely the "tentacles."

With the dust yet to settle, all sides appear to be weighing their next steps — and their words.

Hezbollah hasn't confirmed Israel's claim of having killed Fuad Shukr in a Beirut suburb. Israel has kept mum on a similar strike that killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital. The almost 10-month-old Gaza war and its several knock-on fronts are in a stunned lull.

WATCH: Hamas said its political leader was killed in an airstrike in Tehran that it blamed on Israel. Bloomberg's Dan Williams reports from Jerusalem. Source: Bloomberg TV

While some reprisals and escalation seem inevitable, the Israelis hope this won't preclude a truce to free some of the hostages Hamas seized in its Oct. 7 attack and will also help calm the confrontation with Hezbollah.

They argue that killing enemy leaders makes those left behind likelier to seek a reprieve in order to survive.

Past attempts to decapitate Hamas have left the faction unbowed, however, and eliminating Haniyeh, who acted as a negotiator in cease-fire talks, could dent hopes for an end to the conflict.

As for Iran, Israel believes it will be busy attending to the breach in domestic security and wondering whether worse could follow if it retaliates directly. After all, Israel, with the help of Arab and Western partners, swatted away most of the unprecedented salvo of missiles and drones Iran launched at it in April.

Whether or not conflagration looms also hinges on signals from Washington.

Though distracted by the November election, the US administration — which Israel generally briefs on high-stakes operations — has restated its readiness to protect its ally.

Global Must Reads

Kamala Harris has wiped out Donald Trump's lead across seven US battleground states, as the vice president rides a wave of enthusiasm among young, Black and Hispanic voters, according to the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll. Harris was backed by 48% of voters to 47% for Trump — a statistical dead heat — in the swing states that will likely decide November's presidential election. That's a stronger showing than President Joe Biden's two-point deficit before he dropped out of the race.

Venezuela hardened its crackdown on any resistance to President Nicolás Maduro's self-declared election win by calling for the arrests of opposition leaders María Corina Machado and Edmundo González. Speaking on state television yesterday, head of congress Jorge Rodríguez said González was leading a "fascist conspiracy," and that his campaign with Machado sought to spark a civil war.

Global semiconductor stocks rallied after Reuters reported that Washington plans to exempt chip-equipment makers from Japan, the Netherlands and South Korea from new export controls. The US will invoke the Foreign Direct Product rule to prevent sales of items that use American technology to about half a dozen Chinese chipmaking facilities, while exempting those three key countries, according to the report.

Ukraine's capital faced the most extensive Russian drone attack so far this year, officials said. Air defense intercepted all 89 Shahed unmanned craft, which were launched overnight in two waves and directed mainly at the Kyiv region, Ukrainian Air Force Chief Commander Mykola Oleshchuk said on Telegram. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered officials to double a bonus for those willing to join his war on Ukraine, offering fresh evidence that the military is struggling to meet recruitment targets.

Indian and Canadian intelligence officials have met multiple times to exchange information as more arrests come to light that may point to a previously unknown plot to kill a Sikh activist on North American soil, sources say. Those arrested last year included Amandeep Singh, who was later charged in the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, the Sikh leader killed in British Columbia in June 2023 in an assassination Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said was directed by India, sparking a diplomatic row.

South Korea arrested an official over allegations of leaking defense intelligence that included a list of secret agents posted abroad, prompting the military to bring all of its overseas operatives back home for safety.

The Philippines is trying again to pass a bill allowing the use of cannabis for medical purposes after past failed attempts, with the House of Representatives approving a measure yesterday that has faced opposition from lawmakers including the president's sister.

Peru's attorney general's office said it had filed a complaint against President Dina Boluarte for alleged homicide in the death of 44 people, referencing what it said were "grave violations of human rights."

Rachel Reeves gave the clearest sign yet that she's poised to raise UK taxes in her first budget in October to fill a £16.4 billion ($21 billion) hole the Chancellor of the Exchequer says she inherited from the previous government.

Washington Dispatch

Harris and her yet-to-be-named running mate will launch a tour of seven key battleground states next week, looking to capitalize on momentum since Biden ended his bid for reelection.

Harris is expected to pick a vice presidential candidate in the coming days. While the process remains fluid, her shortlist is said to include Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly.

She and her eventual choice will visit Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, according to a campaign official.

At a rally in Georgia yesterday, Harris pledged to find bipartisan agreement on the US-Mexico border, seeking to address one of her biggest political liabilities.

Trump has repeatedly attacked her for what he calls "weak" security stances relating to the US frontier and mocked her as the "border czar," referring to her work on immigration during the early years of the Biden administration.

One thing to watch today: Federal Reserve officials are likely to signal a potential rate cut in September at the conclusion of their two-day policy meeting.

Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television.

Chart of the Day

Skeptical investors are turning bullish on Turkey's tough reforms led by a team of technocrats under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Foreign ownership of Turkish stocks and bonds now stands at the highest level in five years, with more than $30 billion flowing in since May 2023, according to central bank data compiled by Bloomberg. It shows that money managers, who left when Erdogan enacted his controversial policy of cutting interest rates in the face of double-digit inflation, are coming back.

And Finally

The answer to Britain's housing problems might be to build an entirely new city offshore in the Thames Estuary. The river waters and banks just to London's east could provide enough space to genuinely tackle the issue, according to Ian Mulcahey of architecture practice Gensler. The idea of locating urban expansion on artificial islands has been tried with some success — notably in Amsterdam and Copenhagen — but the Thames remains a challenging and controversial site.

Artificial islands in the Thames Estuary waters to London's east could relieve the nation's housing crisis.

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