Sunday, July 7, 2024

Brussels Edition: From Right to Left

It was a second shock result for France in the space of a week

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

Just as everyone waited to see whether Marine Le Pen's far-right party would clinch a majority in the second round of French elections, a far bigger shock landed: a victory for the left. The newly formed coalition led by Jean-Luc Melenchon claimed the most seats, with President Emmanuel Macron's party coming second and Le Pen's National Rally third, as a cross-party strategy aimed at keeping out the far right succeeded. While the New Popular Front won't have enough votes to govern alone, it is set to demand new spending commitments from Macron in order to form an administration. With investors confronting either a fiscally generous minority government or two years of gridlock, French bond futures slipped in early trading, while the euro dipped and European stock futures edged higher. 

Kevin Whitelaw

What's Happening

On to China | Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will meet China's leader in Beijing, a trip that comes after his controversial sitdown with Vladimir Putin. Orban and Xi Jinping would "have in-depth communication on issues of common concern," the Foreign Ministry in Beijing said in a statement on Monday. Orban took over the EU's six-month rotating presidency on July 1.

Chip Crunch | Competition chief Margrethe Vestager warned of a "huge bottleneck" in Nvidia AI chips supply, but said watchdogs are still making up their minds about what, if anything, to do about it. She told us during an interview in Singapore that dominant companies could face certain restrictions on their behavior in the future.

Delivery Fine | Delivery Hero said it may be hit with a higher-than-expected fine exceeding €400 million by the EU over alleged anti-competitive behavior and will raise the provision it has set aside for this possibility. The company earlier said it had built in a potential fine of €186 million.

Comms Breakdown | China responded only recently to requests for talks in the EU's investigation into EV subsidies despite attempts to engage for months, according to the bloc's ambassador in Beijing. Jorge Toledo said yesterday they'd been offering for months, but "it was only nine days ago" that they engaged.

Around Europe

Standing Tall | No one around the new UK prime minister would claim his election victory came as a surprise. But the fact he's going to show up at the annual NATO summit just days later as the strongest leader in the room owes partly to the pace of events beyond his control

Ukraine Strike | Ukraine's Security Service struck a "a large warehouse of ammunition" in the Voronezh region of southwest Russia overnight, we're told. Drones targeted a stockpile of surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles; artillery, shells for tanks and firearms were also among the weaponry stored in site. 

Recovery Fund | ECB President Christine Lagarde said the EU's recovery fund is proving to be one of the bloc's success stories and is starting to show results in the economy. The comments are likely to be among her last before a blackout period begins next week ahead of a July 18 rate decision.

Vaccine Pushback | A member of Matteo Salvini's League is seeking to curtail mandatory vaccinations for children as the party steps up its populist drive. A senator for the Italian party recently presented an amendment aimed at ending the requirement for children under 16 to get shots against diseases including measles, mumps, chickenpox and rubella.

Chart of the Day

The high season for summer travel has been abysmal for European airline shares so far. Air France-KLM and Norwegian both gave investors warnings last week about business conditions ahead that suggest the industry will continue to face tough times. Strikes, high costs and issues with aircraft deliveries have also plagued Europe's carriers.

Today's Agenda

All times CET

  • 11 a.m. EU Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis delivers opening remarks at the EU-Turkey High Level Dialogue on Trade
  • Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Parliament President Roberta Metsola meet Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof
  • EU industry ministers hold informal meeting in Budapest

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