| This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a multi-pronged strategy of engaging with Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. On Sundays, we look at the major themes of the week past and how they will define the week ahead. Sign up for the daily newsletter here. I once wrote an article headlined "Don't Let Giant Clams Start World War III." That title was tongue-in-cheek — up to a point. While highlighting the depredations of Chinese fishing fleets against Pacific reef systems, my bigger point was how this destructive commercial activity is also the tip of the spear for Beijing's military aggressions and geopolitical ambitions in the South China Sea and beyond. After the fishermen come the "maritime militias," then the Chinese coast guard, and eventually the People's Liberation Army-Navy with its water cannons, artificial islands and reckless seamanship that could lead to miscalculation, escalation and, well, World War III. As we have seen recently, Beijing's boats aren't the only fishermen in the sea: Last week, China Coast Guard officials seized a Taiwanese fishing boat and its crew of five in waters near islands controlled by Taipei but just a handful of miles off the mainland. "The situation in the seas around Taiwan, a self-governed island that China claims as its own, has become more and more tense, with coast guard standoffs between the two sides seemingly on the rise," reported the New York Times. "The concern among officials is that such encounters bring the risk of a clash that could deepen antagonism between the sides or even set off a regional crisis." Another concern, deeply held by one Bloomberg Opinion newsletter writer, is that the majority of the crew of the Taiwanese boat was Indonesian, throwing another nation into the combustible mix. This isn't unusual: Many workers on Taiwan-owned fishing craft are from other Southeast Asian countries, notably the Philippines, and according to my colleague Tim Culpan, there are serious grievances about working conditions and migrant exploitation that could prove divisive among the countries the US wants to form a strong bloc against Beijing. Life is so much simpler for bivalves. Minxin Pei has (somewhat) calming thoughts — that the probability of an all-out war over Taiwan is "currently very low." Why? "To put China in a better position for a potentially drawn-out conflict with the US, they will pay particular attention to three measures of self-sufficiency: the levels of China's foreign exchange reserves held in Western financial institutions, its strategic food stocks, and its oil reserves," he writes. "All this means China will telegraph its intentions far in advance of a deliberate attack. Building up oil stocks and increasing food security will be costly and require years of work. Even then, no conflict is likely to be launched until China drastically reduces its Treasury holdings, which will be visible to all." But he's not resting much easier than me on the fishing fleet front: "The more pressing danger ... will be an accidental conflict, a crisis originating in miscalculations or provocations by Beijing, Washington, or Taipei." I'm not the only one factoring Manila into that equation. "Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is fighting a battle on two fronts with China: One in the South China Sea and the other as a proxy for the US over Taiwan," writes Karishma Vaswani. "It is one of the reasons the mainland is so keen to weaken the Philippines — because it also means weakening Taipei. There is strength in unity: Teaming up against Beijing could help the two smaller parties battle a much stronger opponent. Their fates are inextricably linked." So are their economies, Karishma has pointed out: "The stakes aren't just about the Philippines' sovereignty. They are also about what lies under the waters: Huge reserves of oil, gas and fish. Security and trade in the Indo-Pacific is part of the US's multi-pronged strategy of engaging with partners and allies, which is why it is pushing for freedom of navigation there. About 60% of maritime trade passes through the Indo-Pacific. Maintaining an international presence is essential, or else the territory risks being controlled wholly by China." There's plenty of other China news being obscured by sweetlips trout, French doubt and Labour's knockout: Shuli Ren investigates whether regional tourism can abate the real-estate nightmare; Thomas Black looks at Shanghai shipping prices; and Catherine Thorbecke says Beijing's Gen Z just doesn't want to work very hard (surprise, surprise!!). Bonus Chinese Rock Reading: Ok, dear readers, this is the part of the program where we talk about the North Atlantic Treaty Organization! (That's usually a cue for my family to focus hard on their dessert, flip on The Bear or don headphones and do a little Duolingo.) But NATO turns 75 next week, and is looking increasingly like, um, Joe Biden on debate night. "Not only is Donald Trump also older than NATO; he disdains the alliance as much as ever and is likely to gut its deterrence by dangling a giant question mark over the American commitment to mutual defense with all means, up to and including nukes," Andreas Kluth worries. What are the 31 other member states to do? "The best response by Europe to this strategic angst about US commitment would be to form, at long last, a 'European army,'" Andreas suggests. "The stronger this European force becomes, the more useful, and respectable, it'll seem to future American presidents, who will all want to shift resources to the Pacific. And the more awe-inspiring, and therefore deterring, it'll look to the Kremlin." At least the Ukrainians won't have to fight the North Koreans, writes Hal Brands. But beloved Badgers might: James Stavridis, who once had the coolest job title ever as NATO'S SUPREME ALLIED COMMANDER — when you have a position first held by Dwight D. Eisenhower, you've done OK for yourself — thinks the war in Ukraine is only Job 1(a) for the alliance right now. Job 1(b)? AI! "Warfare is shape-shifting in front of our eyes," the four-star admiral warns. "While NATO has issued some strong policy statements on the need for coherent, alliance-wide cyber capabilities, collective defense in a practical sense is lacking." Vladimir Putin is busy on the hybrid warfare front. He has tactical nukes and he doesn't even need the excuse of a fishing-fleet incident to set of escalation in Eastern Europe. It's NATO's birthday party, and it can cry if it wants to. Notes: Please send Taiwanese trout and feedback to Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net. | 
No comments:
Post a Comment