French President Emmanuel Macron is calling for a political truce during the Paris Olympics, but bond traders are more likely to see the vacuum as a time for a bearish stance and push for a wider France-Germany yield spread. The 10-year OAT-Bunds spread blew out as soon as Macron called the snap vote in June. Although the yield gap has narrowed slightly since then, it appears to be entrenched on a path wider. The challenges of forming a government after messy French parliamentary elections is undermining investor confidence. There's also a report that France Unbowed party announced legislative steps to try to scrap Macron's pension changes and reverse a rise in the legal retirement age to 64 from 62, which would add to French fiscal woes and give bond bears another reason to squeeze the spread wider with Germany. French bond futures are also showing a negative outlook as falling open interest numbers suggest that traders used the bounce for the contract in the first half of July to exit long exposure. Meanwhile, lower US Treasury yields as the Federal Reserve moves toward an interest-rate cut will be of little comfort to French bonds. While that will help to give G-10 yields a general downward tilt -- with the notable exception of Japan -- for global investors it could mean increasing allocations to US bonds and away from underperforming European peers. Mark Cranfield is a macro strategist for Bloomberg's Markets Live team, based in Singapore. |
No comments:
Post a Comment