Sunday, June 30, 2024

Brussels Edition: Round One to Le Pen

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.Emmanuel Macron's decisi

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

Emmanuel Macron's decision to call legislative elections brought the result the polls had predicted in the first round: the far-right National Rally of Marine Le Pen won the the biggest share of the vote and has the chance  to win an outright parliamentary majority. The left-wing New Popular Front coalition came second, exposing a divided nation as Macron's centrist alliance came a distant third. The second round of voting next Sunday looks set to bring one of two scenarios: a far-right government at odds with the agenda of a centrist president, or an extended period of parliamentary gridlock. Neither is particularly appealing to investors, who have been slashing their exposure to French stocks and bonds in the run-up to the election. 
 

Andrea Palasciano

What's Happening

Orban's Turn | Hungary takes over the EU's presidency today in a test of Viktor Orban's ability to act as an honest broker. His 'Make Europe Great Again' presidency motto has raised eyebrows, but Orban has recently shown a more constructive attitude, quietly lifting his veto on several key issues, including Ukraine accession talks and sanctions on Belarus.

Hot Retreat | The ECB's annual retreat in Portugal this week risks being overshadowed by French elections. The ideal program would include elevated economic discussions, cheering June inflation figures or discussing future rate cuts. Instead, concern is emerging over France's fiscal trajectory and possible ECB action to calm investors. 

Nationalist Alliance | Orban announced the formation of a political group with nationalist forces in Austria and the Czech Republic, seeking to break out of his isolation within the EU and lure right-wing groups looking to build on rising support from voters, both on the European and national level. 

Shifting Eastward | Kaja Kallas's nomination as the EU's top diplomat illustrates the bloc's changing priorities as the war shifts the center of political gravity eastward. Her main task will be shaping the EU response to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a topic she's singularly well-versed in. Among the first and fiercest voices warning of Moscow's tactics, her international profile has skyrocketed since the Russian invasion. 

Around Europe

Disrupting Britain | Nigel Farage, the engineer of Brexit, wants to become the leader of the country's opposition with his Reform UK party. While the Labour Party looks set for a landslide victory on July 4, some in the incumbent governing Conservatives are growing more concerned that the anti-immigrant, anti-green Farage could stage a Trump-style takeover of the Tories amid a Europe-wide rise of the right. 

Mercedes Models | Mercedes-Benz is gearing up to unveil a near-record slew of new models over the next two to three years after its first generation of battery cars put off buyers with high prices and design missteps.

Russian Caviar | Discounted Russian goods are available on Singapore's virtual supermarket shelves. Even as many countries shun doing business with Moscow after it invaded Ukraine, Singapore doesn't forbid Russian food exports. Sanctions are limited to fund raising activities that benefit the Russian government and exports geared towards the war effort.

Vying for Venice | LVMH billionaire Bernard Arnault has joined the chase to purchase Venice's Hotel Bauer, on the Grand canal, one of the trophy assets put on the market in the messy fallout from the implosion of Signa Group. The sales process has been caught up in complex creditor entanglements. 

Chart of the Day

In credit markets, the risk premium French companies pay to borrow compared to their euro-area peers has jumped to the highest since the run-up to the 2017 election. Before the snap vote was called, that cost had been consistently lower.

Today's Agenda

  • Hungary takes over rotating EU presidency
  • Competition chief Margrethe Vestager participates in a State Aid High Level Forum in Brussels
  • ECB Forum opens in Sintra, Portugal, with dinner speech by President Christine Lagarde
  • Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson speaks at Japan Energy Summit in Tokyo

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