Crypto News: 5 things to start your day: Europe

Good morning. The euro rises following the first round of the French vote, while the UK election campaign reaches its final days. And global monetary policy easing is happening. Here's what people are talking about.

The euro climbed with European stock-index futures on speculation Marine Le Pen's far-right party will struggle to win an outright majority in French elections, easing concern about further strains on the country's public finances. Futures on French government bonds edged higher, while those on German bunds dropped. The focus now turns to whether Le Pen's party can garner enough support in the second round of voting on July 7 to get an absolute majority in the National Assembly.

For more, Ben Sills reports on Bloomberg Television here.

With three days to the UK general election, opinion polls in Britain are still pointing to a crushing defeat for the governing Conservatives after 14 years in power. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak insists the Conservatives can still win Thursday's UK election, despite multiple polls pointing to a commanding victory for the opposition Labour Party. For implications on UK assets, please read musings (below) from colleague Mark Cranfield.

President Joe Biden's campaign is going on the attack against a chorus of donors, consultants, officials and media voices calling on him to drop out of the 2024 race after his devastating debate performance. Aides spent the weekend publicly dismissing suggestions that Biden reconsider his candidacy, or take dramatic steps to overhaul his operation. Top Democratic lawmakers rallied around the president, fanning out on television to argue there's still a path to victory against former President Donald Trump.

Annabel Spring, the head of HSBC Holdings' private bank, is planning a fresh recruiting drive as part of her bid to regain the title of Asia's biggest wealth manager from UBS Group. Global banks have been building out their wealth-management operations to counter the more-volatile earnings derived from deal-making and trading. A focus on wealth has been a major part of HSBC's Asia-pivot strategy, launched in early 2021 under outgoing CEO Noel Quinn.

Global monetary easing may not be swift or synchronized, but it's happening. Almost all major central banks are now on a path to interest-rate cuts. Among the 23 top central banks featured in Bloomberg Economics' quarterly guide, only the Bank of Japan won't end up lowering borrowing costs within the next 18 months. Most are set to ease this year. Even the Federal Reserve will still end up delivering a couple of moves this year, the forecasts show. In total, 155 basis points will be removed from an aggregate benchmark global rate compiled by Bloomberg Economics by the end of 2025.

As for economic data, investors await Germany CPI readings, along with a slew of manufacturing PMI data out of Europe — from countries including Germany, France and Sweden. From the UK, we get nationwide house prices. The ECB's Nagel speaks.

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours.

24-hour stock trading is booming – and Wall Street is rattled
BlackRock is said to near deal to buy data provider Preqin
Atos reaches restructuring deal giving creditors control
Private gauge of China factory activity hits 3-year high
'Extremely dangerous' hurricane Beryl threatens Caribbean
DOJ to charge Boeing, seek guilty plea from planemaker

The euro is modestly higher against the pound after round one of French elections, but that is set to reverse course as the read across is positive for the British currency.

Traders will be relived pre-election polling for France was close enough to the results, which implies there won't be any shocks in this week's UK general election. That's good for the pound, because those for the UK point to one political party firmly in control of parliament, whereas Marine Le Pen's party looks like falling short of an absolute majority.

Moreover, international investors will be reassured as it looks like Britain is set for a smooth handover to one of the two parties who traditionally form a government. That's a net positive for the pound, gilts and local equities.

Although leveraged traders are already net long sterling and short euro, neither side is running at extreme levels, which suggests positioning won't stand in the way of EUR/GBP declining.

Meanwhile, Clare Lombardelli returns to the Bank of England as deputy governor for monetary policy, which could mean the central bank holds policy again on Aug. 1 as the discussion on timing a rate change will get new input from a senior voice.

Which will give the pound a bit more time to enjoy the positive carry it has over short-term euro yields.

Mark Cranfield is a macro strategist for Bloomberg's Markets Live team, based in Singapore.