It's Bank of England decision day and expectations for an interest-rate cut this time round have largely fallen by the wayside. What we may get is a clearer indication of when the central bank intends to make its first move and crucially — or perhaps not so crucially — whether it's likely to be before the Federal Reserve eases. Historically, developed-nation central banks may have been reluctant to pre-empt the Fed for fear of hurting their own currency, that may be less of a consideration now. Analysis by Deutsche Bank economists this week shows the sensitivity of sterling to diverging BOE-Fed policy has reduced since Covid, with the knock-on effects on inflation also shrinking dramatically. UBS economist Dean Turner also dismisses arguments for non-US central banks to wait for the Fed. Any related exchange rate moves would have to be large to add more than a "rounding error" to central banks' inflation forecasts, he says. The dollar has moved roughly around 2% against the pound or the euro this year despite significant shifts in rate-cut expectations, so it seems unlikely a divergence would drive big moves in exchange rates. Still, Sweden's currency fell close to the weakest in a year after the Riksbank cut its benchmark rate yesterday, while the Swiss franc has underperformed most G-10 peers since the central bank there reduced rates in March. Morwenna Coniam is an editor for Bloomberg News' Markets Today team, based in London. |
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