Wednesday, May 8, 2024

5 things to start your day: Europe

Good morning. The Bank of England rate decision is upon us, UK homeowners rush to sell properties. Apple succession question is heating up.

Good morning. The Bank of England rate decision is upon us, UK homeowners rush to sell properties. Apple succession question is heating up. Here's what people are talking about.

Decision day

All eyes are on the Bank of England with investors keen for a stronger signal on when the central bank will start cutting interest rates. The BOE is expected to keep the benchmark lending rate at 5.25% today, with a decision due at 12 p.m. in London. The focus will be on forecasts for inflation and growth. On the other side of the pond, the Federal Reserve seems in no hurry. Boston Fed President Susan Collins signaled rates will likely need to be held at a two-decade high for longer than previously thought to damp demand and reduce price pressures.

Rush to sell

Britain's homeowners are flooding the market with properties. Just last month the increase in new homes coming onto the market hit its highest level since 2020, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. The average inventory of places for sale at each agent reached a three-year high. Surging supply plus a dip in demand thanks to high borrowing costs signals there may be a prolonged period of stagnation in property prices.

Currency war?

The yen's renewed slide this week means some investors are considering an almost unthinkable scenario — a series of competitive devaluations that start a new Asian currency war. Suspected interventions to prop up the yen are already seen as unlikely to have a lasting effect if Japan continues alone — hedge funds are piling in to bets the yen will retest last month's 34-year lows. Another destabilizing slump in the region's most-traded currency could force Japan's neighbors to take extreme action, goes the theory. It is still very much a minority view, and not one that suggests a repeat of the Asian financial crisis, but it's still gaining traction as the resurgent US dollar looks to be staying stronger for longer.

Musk's xAI

Better health-care has been a theme for artificial intelligence optimists. The first AI-designed drugs may be ready for testing in the "next couple of years," Google's AI boss Demis Hassabis tells Bloomberg Television. Separately, Elon Musk's AI startup X.AI Corp. is set to close its funding round at a valuation of about $18 billion as soon as this week, according to people familiar with the matter. The size of the round hasn't been finalized, the people said.

Who's next?

 Tim Cook can't run Apple forever. He has transformed the company since taking over as chief executive officer from Steve Jobs in 2011. He's served for far longer than the average Fortune 500 CEO, and, at 63, is older than many of his peers. Still, if it seems like a logical time for Cook to start planning for someone else to shape Apple's next chapter, the situation is complicated by the lack of someone who's both ready immediately and likely to be a long-term successor — my colleague Mark Gurman reports. In the meantime, Apple's latest iPad ads look to be a huge faux pas, triggering concerns about the dangers of AI, Dave Lee opines.

Coming up

Along with the day's highlight of the BOE meeting, it's also rate-decision day for Poland. The ECB's Guindos speaks. And it's a quiet day on the corporate side, with Telefonica and Enel on the earnings release docket. 

What we've been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours.

And finally, here's what Morwenna is interested in this morning:

It's Bank of England decision day and expectations for an interest-rate cut this time round have largely fallen by the wayside. What we may get is a clearer indication of when the central bank intends to make its first move and crucially — or perhaps not so crucially — whether it's likely to be before the Federal Reserve eases.

Historically, developed-nation central banks may have been reluctant to pre-empt the Fed for fear of hurting their own currency, that may be less of a consideration now. Analysis by Deutsche Bank economists this week shows the sensitivity of sterling to diverging BOE-Fed policy has reduced since Covid, with the knock-on effects on inflation also shrinking dramatically.

UBS economist Dean Turner also dismisses arguments for non-US central banks to wait for the Fed. Any related exchange rate moves would have to be large to add more than a "rounding error" to central banks' inflation forecasts, he says. The dollar has moved roughly around 2% against the pound or the euro this year despite significant shifts in rate-cut expectations, so it seems unlikely a divergence would drive big moves in exchange rates.

Still, Sweden's currency fell close to the weakest in a year after the Riksbank cut its benchmark rate yesterday, while the Swiss franc has underperformed most G-10 peers since the central bank there reduced rates in March.

Morwenna Coniam is an editor for Bloomberg News' Markets Today team, based in London.

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