2024 is being called the biggest election year in history, with half of the world participating in regional, legislative and presidential elections. Geopolitical tensions were already some of the biggest investing risks going into the new year and many of the coming results will determine how those pressures will be exacerbated or resolved. Complicating the situation is growing mistrust in the integrity of elections themselves, as well as the potential for online misinformation and algorithm manipulation during the campaign trail. In some countries, there is also a widespread risk of doctored results or mass protests in response to them.Asia: The first big presidential election will take place in Taiwan on Jan. 13. U.S. policymakers will be closely watching the results for the tone on relations with China, which again pledged "reunification" with the self-governing island during Xi Jinping's year-end address. Elsewhere in Asia, Indians will go to the polls in April and May to decide whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party will secure a third term. The country is rapidly becoming a global manufacturing powerhouse, helping investors turn bullish on the world's most populous nation.Europe: European Russia is the most populated part of Russia, which has been in direct conflict with Ukraine over the last two years. Everything from energy to commodities has been impacted by the war with its neighbor, but neither side has shown any signs of achieving victory or motivation to compromise. No surprises are in store, but Russians will go to the polls on March 17, while Ukraine's planned presidential vote on March 31 is likely to be postponed with the nation currently under martial law. Establishment parties are also bracing for some disruption during the European Parliament election slated for June, while the U.K. economy will be on watch with Rishi Sunak promising to call a general election at some point in 2024.Americas: The presidential election cycle in the U.S. begins in earnest this month with the first caucuses in Iowa and primaries in New Hampshire. The campaign season will get lots of airtime, with debates and soundbites covering the economy, immigration, infrastructure and foreign policy. The vote on Nov. 5. will not only decide the next president of the United States, but also features Senate and House races, as well as gubernatorial elections. South of the border, Mexico will hold a presidential vote in June that could impact cooperation on trade and border security with its northern neighbor, while Venezuela heads to the polls in December for a predictable election outcome as the country gears up for battle with energy-rich Guyana.
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| | Top News  Getty Images 2024 is being called the biggest election year in history, with half of the world participating in regional, legislative and presidential elections. Geopolitical tensions were already some of the biggest investing risks going into the new year and many of the coming results will determine how those pressures will be exacerbated or resolved. Complicating the situation is growing mistrust in the integrity of elections themselves, as well as the potential for online misinformation and algorithm manipulation during the campaign trail. In some countries, there is also a widespread risk of doctored results or mass protests in response to them.
Asia: The first big presidential election will take place in Taiwan on Jan. 13. U.S. policymakers will be closely watching the results for the tone on relations with China, which again pledged "reunification" with the self-governing island during Xi Jinping's year-end address. Elsewhere in Asia, Indians will go to the polls in April and May to decide whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party will secure a third term. The country is rapidly becoming a global manufacturing powerhouse, helping investors turn bullish on the world's most populous nation.
Europe: European Russia is the most populated part of Russia, which has been in direct conflict with Ukraine over the last two years. Everything from energy to commodities has been impacted by the war with its neighbor, but neither side has shown any signs of achieving victory or motivation to compromise. No surprises are in store, but Russians will go to the polls on March 17, while Ukraine's planned presidential vote on March 31 is likely to be postponed with the nation currently under martial law. Establishment parties are also bracing for some disruption during the European Parliament election slated for June, while the U.K. economy will be on watch with Rishi Sunak promising to call a general election at some point in 2024.
Americas: The presidential election cycle in the U.S. begins in earnest this month with the first caucuses in Iowa and primaries in New Hampshire. The campaign season will get lots of airtime, with debates and soundbites covering the economy, immigration, infrastructure and foreign policy. The vote on Nov. 5. will not only decide the next president of the United States, but also features Senate and House races, as well as gubernatorial elections. South of the border, Mexico will hold a presidential vote in June that could impact cooperation on trade and border security with its northern neighbor, while Venezuela heads to the polls in December for a predictable election outcome as the country gears up for battle with energy-rich Guyana. | | Cryptocurrency Bitcoin ( BTC-USD) rang in the new year by scaling new heights, surpassing $45,000 for the first time since April 2022 amid growing expectations that the SEC could approve a spot bitcoin ETF as early as next week. The imminent approval caused bitcoin to more than double in value over the past year, outperforming gold and global equities, although it is still well below its 2021 peak of $69,000. The upbeat sentiment lifted crypto-related stocks before the bell, including Coinbase ( COIN), Riot Platforms ( RIOT), and Marathon Digital ( MARA). "I suspect approval makes a nice narrative for bitcoin going higher, but the chart shows us this as the more likely outcome without needing to predict the SEC's actions," noted Investing Group Leader Jason Appel. ( 2 comments) | | Energy Oil prices are advancing after Iran deployed a warship to the Red Sea as tensions in the key trade route continued to escalate over the weekend. Front-month Nymex crude ( CL1:COM) for February delivery and front-month Brent Crude ( CO1:COM) for March delivery gained more than 2.5% each. While Iran said it deployed the warship under a routine mission, the move was made after the U.S. sank three Houthi boats attacking the Maersk Hangzhou, killing rebel fighters for the first time since the Red Sea attacks began. Maersk ( OTCPK:AMKBY) has since temporarily halted shipping, so keep an eye on shipping stocks as investors size up freight rates and additional war risk premiums. ( 5 comments) | | Automotive The new year means that just 13 electric vehicle models are now eligible for the $7,500 consumer tax credit in the U.S. That's due to tighter rules surrounding sourcing battery components made by Chinese manufacturers. Vehicles that are still eligible for the full tax credit include variants of Tesla's ( TSLA) Model Y, Rivian's ( RIVN) R1T pickup, Stellantis' ( STLA) Jeep Wrangler 4xe, General Motors' ( GM) Chevrolet Bolt and Ford's ( F) F-150 Lightning pickup truck. Nissan's Leaf ( OTCPK:NSANY) and Tesla's Cybertruck fell off the list at the stroke of midnight, but still qualify for a $3,750 tax credit. ( 70 comments) | | Today's Markets In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong -1.5%. China -0.4%. India -0.5%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris -0.4%. Frankfurt -0.2%.
Futures at 7:00, Dow -0.4%. S&P -0.6%. Nasdaq -0.9%. Crude +2.1% to $73.18. Gold +0.4% to $2,079.10. Bitcoin +6.4% to $45,448.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +10 bps to 3.96%. Today's Economic Calendar | | | | | Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast Podcast Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you need to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working day. | | | | |
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