Tuesday, October 31, 2023

Next Africa: Facing the abyss

Conflict in Sudan has claimed more than 9,000 lives

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Renewed talks over a ceasefire and humanitarian access in war-ravaged Sudan couldn't have come soon enough.

Fighting between the national army, led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, has been raging for almost seven months, claiming the lives of more than 9,000 people and forcing almost 5.8 million from their homes. 

The economy has taken a massive hit, with the International Monetary Fund expecting it to contract more than 18% this year.

Smoke rises over Khartoum during fighting in April. Photographer: AFP/Getty Images

The warring generals have threatened to establish their own capitals —Burhan in Port Sudan in the east and Dagalo in Khartoum or one of the cities controlled by his forces in the western Darfur region — effectively fracturing the North African nation.

Port Sudan has, to a degree, already replaced Khartoum as the de-facto capital, with aid agencies and embassies having relocated there to escape the worst of the violence.

The latest round of peace talks in Jeddah this week are being attended by officials from Saudi Arabia, the US and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, an East African bloc whose members include Kenya, Ethiopia and Uganda. Notably absent are representatives from Sudanese political parties and former rebel groups — although they had met in Addis Ababa to lay out plans for a return to democracy. 

The situation within Sudan is growing increasingly desperate.

The United Nations estimates that one-third of the population are on the verge of becoming food insecure, and the fighting is hampering efforts to dispense aid. There was a marked increase in indiscriminate attacks on civilians in October, while the targeting of  health centers continued unabated, according to the Sudan Conflict Monitor. 

The chances of a truce being agreed any time soon remain slim, though, evident from the army's warning: "The resumption of negotiations does not mean a halt to the national battle." — Simon Marks and Mohammed Alamin

Key stories and opinion: 
US Says Cease-Fire Talks Have Resumed in Sudanese Conflict
Rape and Sexual Assault Cases Rise in Sudan as Conflict Rages
Revived Iran Ties Throw Wildcard Into Sudan's Deadly Civil War
Sudan's War Will Test the New Arab Diplomacy: Bobby Ghosh
What's Behind the Fighting in Sudan and What It Means: QuickTake

News Roundup

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa declared Dec. 15 a public holiday to celebrate the Springboks' 12-11 win over New Zealand's All Blacks in the Rugby World Cup final. The announcement was made in a televised address, in which the president also highlighted the progress being made in tackling an energy crisis, logistics constraints, crime and unemployment. He reiterated a commitment to stabilizing debt and a sustainable fiscal policy ahead of this week's budget update.

Ramaphosa celebrates the World Cup victory with team members in Paris. Photographer: Anne-Christine Poujoulat/AFP/Getty Images

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said his country is eyeing imports of natural gas from Nigeria to help secure and diversify its energy supply. The European economic powerhouse, which switched off its last nuclear plant this year and weaned itself off Russian pipeline gas during last year's energy crisis, needs large volumes of LNG to run its power-hungry industries. If more states offered gas on the global market, prices would fall, Scholz said in the Nigerian capital, Abuja.

Nigerians are feeling the pinch of rising food prices, with the cost of rice jumping 61% in September from a year ago. The grain is the main ingredient used in making jollof, a popular delicacy in the West African nation. The cost of the dish's other inputs also jumped, with vegetable oil surging 31%, onions 30% and frozen chicken 24%. The government is meanwhile planning to introduce new foreign exchange rules, including a crackdown on illegal currency trading, to try and ensure that the naira  trades at a "fair price."

A bowl of jollof.  Photographer: Jeff Schear/Getty Images

South Africa's struggling state power utility reported a 23.9 billion-rand ($1.2 billion) annual loss after subjecting the country to record electricity outages. Eskom began intensifying power cuts in the fourth quarter of last year, with blackouts of up to 12 hours a day. The company spent almost 30 billion rand in the financial year through March running its diesel-powered units as its old coal-fired stations experienced frequent breakdowns. Click here for an explainer on the energy crisis. 

The US terminated Uganda's preferential trade status following its adoption of draconian anti-LGBTQ laws. President Joe Biden notified Congress that Uganda is among four countries whose status under the African Growth and Opportunity Act is being withdrawn. The others are Central African Republic, Gabon and Niger. Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni's government has faced criticism for legislation he signed in May that includes the death penalty for so-called "aggravated homosexuality." 

Museveni. Photographer: Guillem Sartorio/Bloomberg

Botswana gave a state company exclusive rights to import 90% of the southern African nation's fuel supply as the government seeks to reduce market volatility. Botswana Oil plans to enter into contracts with multiple suppliers and consolidate volumes, giving it more leverage to negotiate, spokeswoman Mpho Mokgosi said. The major diamond producer consumes about 22,000 barrels of liquid fuels a day and has no domestic production.

Thank you for your responses to our weekly Next Africa Quiz, and congratulations to Brian Montpellier, who was the first person to name South Africa as the country that was vying for a record fourth Rugby World Cup title.

Chart of the Week

For all of the disruptions caused by the global pandemic, one trend persisted: half of the world's 10 fastest-growing economies continued to be located in Africa, writes Editor-In-Chief Emeritus Matthew Winkler in this opinion piece. Three years ago, Uganda, Ivory Coast, Egypt, Ghana, Rwanda and Kenya ranked among thetop performers. The same countries, excluding Egypt, dominated again in 2021 and 2022. Rwanda's gross domestic product expanded 11.1% and 8.2%, while the global average was 6.3% and 3.5%, Bloomberg data show.

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