Friday, September 1, 2023

Dropping like flies

France is losing friends in Africa

Another month, another coup in Francophone Africa.

After Niger in July, this time it was Gabon, whose President Ali Bongo found himself detained in the same presidential palace that Emmanuel Macron visited six months ago. It was the eighth military takeover in a former French colony in the past three years.

Key Reading:
Gabon to Swear In Transitional Leader After Coup in OPEC Member
Gabon Junta Tightens Grip as EU Opposes Military Intervention
What's Driving the Coups Across Sub-Saharan Africa?
Niger's Junta Orders Police to Expel French Ambassador
Russia's Footprint Grows in Africa as France Leaves Burkina Faso

Macron likes to remind his African audiences that he is the first French president born after independence swept the continent, and he took office vowing to reset relations with former colonies in Africa. Change has come, but not on his terms — whether democratically elected or longtime authoritarians, the men whom France supports are dropping like flies.

The spate of coups has been driven in part by rising anti-French sentiment — which in turn has been gleefully exploited by Russia — and frustration with the corruption and neglect of regimes that have long been allied with Paris, despite their democratic shortcomings.

Tellingly, condemnation of the latest armed putsch from a regional body was signed by the Central African Republic's president, Faustin Archange Touadera, who last month pushed through a referendum to secure an unconstitutional third term. He was also the first Francophone African leader to break with France and hire the Russian mercenary group, Wagner.

Macron has spent weeks calling for the restoration of Niger's president, Mohamed Bazoum. But he's stayed largely mum about Bongo's plight, recognition that Gabon's case is "very distinct" from Niger, as the European Union's top diplomat Josep Borrell put it yesterday. While Bazoum is generally seen to have been fairly elected, Bongo was declared the winner of an election last weekend that was widely viewed as, per Borrell, "rigged."

But Paris has plenty of other friends in Gabon's neighborhood that fit Bongo's authoritarian bill — Cameroon, Congo-Brazzaville, Chad, to name a few.

It remains to be seen whether it'll take a coup for France to break ties with them. 

Macron and Bongo in Libreville in March. Photographer: Ludovic Marin/AFP/Getty Images

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Global Headlines

Vladimir Putin is moving swiftly to take control of Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin's sprawling operations in Africa and the Middle East, days after the Russian president's renegade ex-protege died in a mysterious plane crash. All of Wagner's covert overseas network is due to fall under effective Russian military command, sources say, ending a setup that gave Putin a veil of deniability over Moscow's official involvement.

  • Russian-led forces are staging joint military exercises in Belarus near the border with NATO-member Poland, weeks after Putin warned Warsaw he'd treat any "aggression" toward Minsk as an attack on his country.
  • Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan holds talks in Moscow today with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on reviving the Black Sea grain deal.

Deep-seated structural problems in China's economy will ultimately strengthen the West's hand against a weakening geopolitical competitor, officials in Washington, Rome, Tokyo and other capitals say. If China once seemed on an inevitable path to overtaking a declining America as the world's leading economic power, the view now is that economic narrative is flipping fast.

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping is planning to skip next week's Group of 20 summit in New Delhi, sources say. US President Joe Biden said he hoped Xi will attend.

China moved to allow its largest cities to cut down payments for homebuyers and encouraged lenders to reduce rates on existing mortgages in its latest attempt to halt a slide in its residential property market. Beijing is betting that lower mortgage rates and down payments will revive demand for homes after sales by the country's largest developers fell 34% in August from a year earlier.

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President Joe Biden's administration has formally asked Congress for a short-term funding package to avoid a government shutdown on Oct. 1, kicking off a struggle over spending with US House Republicans. But even a stopgap measure faces opposition from conservatives, and hard-liners in the House Freedom Caucus have urged their colleagues to oppose it unless their demands for spending cuts and changes to border policies are met.

Unleashing her brand of hands-on capitalism, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has made a series of interventionist moves on things from airline fares to phone networks, as well as a controversial late-night announcement to tax bank profits. With some investors nervous and Italy's economy faltering, the 46-year-old right-wing leader faces a difficult task to carry out her agenda.

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Hong Kong is bracing for Super Typhoon Saola, forecast to hit the city today in a major test for Chief Executive John Lee's government. The stock market and schools were closed, most public transportation ground to a halt and many flights were canceled in anticipation of the storm, which is sustaining winds of 210 km/hour near its epicenter — equivalent to a category 4 hurricane.

Saola today.

Tune in to Bloomberg TV's Balance of Power at 5pm to 6pm ET weekdays with Washington correspondents Annmarie Hordern and Joe Mathieu. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online here.

News to Note

  • Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his South Korean counterpart that he supports Seoul's efforts to resume three-way summits that include Japan, a sign Beijing is trying to counter a US push to forge closer ties with its two Asian allies.
  • Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah rejected the prospect of normalizing relations with Israel, days after news of a secret meeting between top envoys sparked protests in the OPEC member.
  • The US Capitol's top health official cleared Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell to work, a day after he froze for the second time in as many months at a public event.
  • The Biden administration is making up to $12 billion available for automakers to retrofit their facilities to produce electric vehicles and hybrids.
  • Singaporeans voted for a new president for the first time in over a decade, posing a test for the ruling party challenged by higher living costs and political scandals.

Pop quiz (no cheating!) Which African nation's main opposition party called this week for a rerun of an election that handed the president another five-year term and was found to be deeply flawed by international observers? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net.

And finally ... After establishing the controversial LIV Golf tour and splashing out on superstars such as Cristiano Ronaldo and Neymar for its football clubs, Saudi Arabia is setting its sights on cricket. According to England cricket captain Ben Stokes, Saudi billions will continue to transform sport, and his could be next if players are lured by massive contracts. "You can't compete with money," Stokes told Jamie Nimmo.

Stokes celebrates winning the third Ashes Test against Australia in 2019. Photographer: Gareth Copley/Getty Images

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