| Barbie and Oppenheimer propelled the US movie business to its best weekend since April 2019 (Avengers: Endgame) and one of the biggest weekends ever. Two different movies grossed more than $80 million and four different movies hit $20 million (if you round up). It is tempting to overreact to the strong performance of a couple movies and make grand proclamations about the state of the business. Ticket sales are now up about 16% over a year ago. Yet for all the enthusiasm around one weekend, it was an outlier in a summer of expensive box offices misfires. It is also the final big movie weekend of summer – and maybe longer. Look at the calendar. There's not much coming out until the fall, and most of those releases are uncertain because of the strike. (More on that in a bit.) As we face a couple quiet months, let's look at five of the biggest lessons in the movie business so far this year. Hollywood franchises are getting stale. This year's two biggest surprise hits at the box office are Super Mario Bros. and Barbie. These are not original movies. One is based on a video game and the other is about a toy. But they are inspired by properties that haven't been exploited in a long time. They feel fresh even if they aren't new ideas. You know what didn't work? Fast X. Mission Impossible 7. Indiana Jones 5. Transformers 6. DC Movies 37 and 38. Christopher Nolan made a three-hour biopic about the creator of the atomic bomb that delivered a bigger US opening than any of those titles. The success of Oppenheimer is amazing, but the failure of the aforementioned franchises is a big concern for studios that plan to make new installments. A lot of these franchises are getting long in the tooth and it's evident viewers aren't satisfied. Most of these movies are getting mediocre scores from audiences, as Matthew Ball notes. Hollywood has to decide whether it's time to retire these franchises, put them on ice or reinvent them from scratch. This doesn't mean original movies are the solution. This is the list of the most popular movies of 2023. There are only two original movies in the top 20: an under-performing Pixar title (Elemental) and Oppenheimer. (A faith-based smash (Sound of Freedom) and an Indian thriller (Pathaan) narrowly missed the cut.) Here's what the top 10 looks like: Video game Comic book sequel Sequel Animated comic book sequel Reboot Comic book sequel Sequel Sequel Sequel Original animated movie A toy adaptation is going to settle somewhere between video game adaptation and a sequel, nudging the one original idea out of the top 10. (Barbie is a fresh idea, but it's still based on a toy.) This isn't because studios aren't releasing original movies. It's because viewers aren't going. Lionsgate's Joy Ride and Are You There God, It's Me Margaret both struggled despite stellar reviews. Adam Driver's 65 was one of the biggest bombs of the year. Even successful original movies like Cocaine Bear, No Hard Feelings and 80 for Brady grossed less than $100 million. They are singles -- not home runs. And while studios welcome singles, they need home runs to cover their costs. Speaking of costs… when did $200 million become the new $100 million? Most of the year's biggest flops rank among the year's highest-grossing movies. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is going to gross $400 million worldwide. The Flash grossed $268 million. Unfortunately for both of those movies, they have currently made about as much as they cost. Covid inflated costs for a lot of the movies coming out this year. But studios have completely lost control over budgets in both film and TV. The average blockbuster this year cost $200 million to produce. No movie in the top 10 cost less than $100 million. China is closed for good. Erich Schwartzel wrote the story I've been wanting someone to do for a while: Hollywood movies are failing in China. There was a brief period where China wouldn't release Hollywood movies. Now it will release them, but customers aren't going. The box-office tallies of some summer releases have been disastrous, compared with what such high-profile movies could once gross in China. Walt Disney's "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny" had made $3.3 million as of July 18, according to the Chinese ticketing firm Maoyan, about the same haul as in Denmark. The animated parable "Elemental" has collected $15.6 million in China, trailing Mexico. Last weekend, "Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One" opened to $25.4 million in China—66% below the last installment, which opened in 2018. Two Chinese movies topped the charts ahead of the action film. If grosses continue to stay so low, one executive cautioned, studios may decide it isn't worth submitting films for release in China.
Hollywood studios never got a ton of money out of China. But they sure spent a lot of money trying. Streaming movies are not blockbusters. Quick, name the biggest streaming movie of the summer. If you named Extraction 2, collect a prize. Did you know Netflix has released more than a dozen movies this summer? Hulu and Peacock dabbled in original movies too. It is hard to imagine we'll be talking about many of them this time next year. Attention filmmakers!Bloomberg Green Docs is accepting submissions until September 1. We want to see your short documentaries on climate change. Enter your film and compete to win a $25,000 grand prize. Learn more: bloomberg.com/greendocs. While late night shows have been off the air since early May, the strike has thus far had little impact on what people can watch on TV or in movie theaters. That's about to change. Hollywood studios are now contemplating whether to push the release of some of the fall's biggest movies since actors can't promote projects during a strike. Warner Bros. is debating pushing its three biggest titles of the fall: Dune 2, Aquaman 2 and The Color Purple. TV networks have already planned for a fall with fewer new shows. Paramount is going to air reruns of Yellowstone on CBS for the first time, as well as expand shows like Survivor and 60 Minutes to 90 minutes. (The name 60 Minutes will remain.) All TV networks are leaning into reality programs, international series and reruns. These networks and studios will be fine through the end of the year. But next year is looking pretty ugly. Studios won't have a summer release slate if they can't get back into production by the fall, and streaming services and TV networks will have holes all over the calendar. Netflix's password crackdown is workingShares in Netflix plunged at the end of last week after the company reported what seemed like good news. It added almost three times as many customers as Wall Street expected, and also reported better profit and cash flow than forecast. So, why the negative reaction? Its revenue figures were a little light for the last quarter and the current one. While some of this can be blamed on currency, it's also because the average price people pay for Netflix is going down. Average revenue per member (ARM) slipped in every region last quarter. A lot of new customers are opting for cheaper plans (like the $7 advertising-supported tier). The company is hoping to address this in wealthier markets by scrapping its cheapest ad-free tier (basic), thereby encouraging people to sign up for ads or pay the higher price. But Netflix has also had to lower prices to appeal to people in poorer parts of the world, and it's clear a lot of Netflix's newer customers in Asia in particular are from poorer markets like India and Indonesia. The average Netflix customer in Asia pays $1.17 less a month than they did a year ago. (All things considered, most analysts and investors still feel good about the company. Shares in Netflix are up about 45% this year.) The Netflix of Sweden is in big troubleViaplay, one of the largest streaming services in Scandinavia, is firing 25% of its staff and exploring a sale. Viaplay was one of the few local success stories in the streaming business. It had almost 5 million customers in Scandinavia. But it made the mistake of expanding beyond its core markets, an expensive endeavor that didn't pay off. The company is now pulling out of the US, UK and Canada. The No. 1 album in the US is…Taylor Swift's re-release of Speak Now. You all must be tired of hearing about Swift, but bear with me. Swift sold more than 500,000 copies of this record, and has eight of the most popular albums in the US right now. She now has more No. 1 albums than any female artist ever. Deals, deals, dealsI am really digging the new Janelle Monae, and I am not too proud to admit that I listened to Barack Obama's summer playlist. (Best discovery? nobigdyl's PARABOLIC!) Also, Apple TV+'s new Stephen Curry documentary doesn't break much new ground, but the footage of him in practice (and as a teen) is worth the watch. | 
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