Friday, June 30, 2023

Wall Street Breakfast: Game On, Or Game Over?

Final arguments have been presented in a closely watched case that could determine the fate of the biggest tech acquisition in U.S. history. The trial included testimony from Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Satya Nadella and Activision's (ATVI) Bobby Kotick as they faced off against lawyers from the Federal Trade Commission. The suit will also have profound implications on the Biden administration's approach to antitrust enforcement, and recent crackdowns on the most prominent U.S. tech giants, as the agency flexes its muscles under the leadership of Lina Khan. What are the concerns? Simply put, the FTC feels that the $69B tie-up between Microsoft - the company behind Xbox - and one of the best-known game developers would harm competition. Activision's Call of Duty and World of Warcraft are some of the most popular gaming franchises, and turning Microsoft into the No. 3 gaming company in the world could limit rivals' access to titles or raise prices for other gaming platforms. The FTC also said it would give the Xbox maker an unfair advantage in the new market for game subscriptions, as well as the emerging market for cloud gaming.The trial and its timing are critical, as the transaction has a July 18 termination date - after which billions in breakup fees would need to be paid by Microsoft or terms would have to be renegotiated. Meanwhile, the commission is seeking a preliminary injunction to extend things until August, when an internal court judgment is due and can potentially drag things out for years. Both sides are now watching a pivotal decision by U.S. District Judge Jacqueline Scott Corley in San Francisco, who can make or break the deal over the next few days after hearing their closing arguments. While the FTC trial is crucial, M&A investors are also keenly focused on the U.K., where the country's antitrust regulator is set to hear an appeal on July 28 (the $69B deal was already approved in the EU, China, and other markets). Microsoft has gone to great lengths to assuage antitrust fears, like inking an agreement to bring Call of Duty to Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) for the next decade, as well as an offer to extend access to Sony (SONY). It's been a long slog since the deal was first announced on January 18, 2022, with shares of Microsoft (MSFT) and Activision Blizzard (ATVI) climbing 45% and 30%, respectively, since that date. SA commentary: "It was right at the end of the hearings that the judge reminded one of the FTC lawyers that it's not the harm to Sony that she cares about; it's any harm to consumers,"  Chris DeMuth Jr., Investing Group Leader of Sifting the World, told Seeking Alpha. "The FTC would have been better off if she had explained this to them at the beginning. The FTC hardly mentioned consumers, let alone proved that they'd be harmed, while operating more as Sony lobbyists than American law enforcers. It was a strange spectacle unlikely to be the first such vertical merger to be blocked this century." (25 comments)
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Final arguments have been presented in a closely watched case that could determine the fate of the biggest tech acquisition in U.S. history. The trial included testimony from Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Satya Nadella and Activision's (ATVI) Bobby Kotick as they faced off against lawyers from the Federal Trade Commission. The suit will also have profound implications on the Biden administration's approach to antitrust enforcement, and recent crackdowns on the most prominent U.S. tech giants, as the agency flexes its muscles under the leadership of Lina Khan.

What are the concerns? Simply put, the FTC feels that the $69B tie-up between Microsoft - the company behind Xbox - and one of the best-known game developers would harm competition. Activision's Call of Duty and World of Warcraft are some of the most popular gaming franchises, and turning Microsoft into the No. 3 gaming company in the world could limit rivals' access to titles or raise prices for other gaming platforms. The FTC also said it would give the Xbox maker an unfair advantage in the new market for game subscriptions, as well as the emerging market for cloud gaming.

The trial and its timing are critical, as the transaction has a July 18 termination date - after which billions in breakup fees would need to be paid by Microsoft or terms would have to be renegotiated. Meanwhile, the commission is seeking a preliminary injunction to extend things until August, when an internal court judgment is due and can potentially drag things out for years. Both sides are now watching a pivotal decision by U.S. District Judge Jacqueline Scott Corley in San Francisco, who can make or break the deal over the next few days after hearing their closing arguments.

While the FTC trial is crucial, M&A investors are also keenly focused on the U.K., where the country's antitrust regulator is set to hear an appeal on July 28 (the $69B deal was already approved in the EU, China, and other markets). Microsoft has gone to great lengths to assuage antitrust fears, like inking an agreement to bring Call of Duty to Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) for the next decade, as well as an offer to extend access to Sony (SONY). It's been a long slog since the deal was first announced on January 18, 2022, with shares of Microsoft (MSFT) and Activision Blizzard (ATVI) climbing 45% and 30%, respectively, since that date.

SA commentary: "It was right at the end of the hearings that the judge reminded one of the FTC lawyers that it's not the harm to Sony that she cares about; it's any harm to consumers,"  Chris DeMuth Jr., Investing Group Leader of Sifting the World, told Seeking Alpha. "The FTC would have been better off if she had explained this to them at the beginning. The FTC hardly mentioned consumers, let alone proved that they'd be harmed, while operating more as Sony lobbyists than American law enforcers. It was a strange spectacle unlikely to be the first such vertical merger to be blocked this century." (25 comments)
     
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Economy
In its third estimate of GDP, the Department of Commerce reported that U.S. economic growth expanded by 2.0% Y/Y in Q1, revised from its prior estimate of 1.3% and exceeding economists' expectation of 1.4%. The change reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending, offset by downward projections of nonresidential fixed investment and government spending. The news pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher and widened the inverted yield curve further, while the stock market ended the session broadly higher. "Investors tend not to focus on revisions, even as the revisions have tended to become wilder," noted UBS chief economist Paul Donovan. (99 comments)
     
Consumer
Shares of Nike (NKE) are down 4% in premarket trading after posting its first earnings miss in three years. A slight margin beat and strong sales tally out of China helped offset the company's profit figures as it "drives to healthy full price growth." During the earnings call, CFO Matthew Friend said Nike was aiming for above-average margin improvement in fiscal 2024, with mid-single-digit revenue growth. First-quarter revenue growth will likely remain flat or rise marginally, however, given Nike's decision to tighten first-half buys and restrain inventory. (19 comments)
     
Financials
Upgrading the Fed's legacy capabilities in terms of efficiency and competitiveness, the FedNow real-time payment system is set for a launch in late July. Fifty-seven financial institutions and service providers, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC), have signed up for the new innovative infrastructure. The network aims to eventually reach all 10,000 U.S. financial institutions and the discussion is already kicking off on Seeking Alpha. Some are citing privacy concerns in the comments section, while others say the government is already involved in the entire system. (36 comments)
     
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -0.1%. Hong Kong -0.1%. China +0.6%. India +1.3%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.7%. Paris +1.2%. Frankfurt +1.2%.
Futures at 7:00, Dow +0.3%. S&P +0.4%. Nasdaq +0.5%. Crude +0.1% at $69.93. Gold -0.3% at $1,912.60. Bitcoin +0.3% to $30,806.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +2 bps to 3.88%.
Today's Economic Calendar
What else is happening...
Double whammy: Dutch curb chipmaking gear sales to China, U.S. to follow.

Virgin Galactic (SPCE) kicks off space tourism era with first commercial flight.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire (BRK.B) boosts Occidental (OXY) stake to 25%.

Google (GOOG, GOOGL) will pull Canada news links in wake of new law.

PG&E (PCG) seeks $7B federal loan to cut California wildfire risk.

China NBS factory activity contracts in June for third month in a row.

U.S. considers sending long-range missile system to Ukraine.

CDC director endorses RSV shots for certain adults aged 60 or older.

FTC antitrust lawsuit against Amazon (AMZN) expected in coming weeks.

Mega-caps absent: Goldman Sachs adds 39 stocks to Sharpe Ratio basket.
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