Tuesday, May 30, 2023

5 things to start your day

Good morning. The debt-ceiling vote nears, China's recovery sputters and Goldman is said to be considering laying off more workers. Here's w

Good morning. The debt-ceiling vote nears, China's recovery sputters and Goldman is said to be considering laying off more workers. Here's what people are talking about.

Debt-Ceiling Vote

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy dismissed threats from Republican hard-liners to oust him over the debt-limit deal he forged with President Joe Biden and expressed confidence that lawmakers will pass legislation in time to avert a US default. The bill, heading for a House vote on Wednesday evening, prompted GOP Representative Dan Bishop to call for a vote on removing McCarthy as speaker, claiming the deal granted too many concessions to Democrats. Another conservative member, Chip Roy, promised a "reckoning" for McCarthy. Asked Tuesday if he was worried he would lose his job as speaker, McCarthy responded "nope," and said supporting the deal is "an easy vote for Republicans."

China's Weak Recovery

China's economic recovery weakened in May as manufacturing activity slumped, prompting investors to sell stocks and call for more stimulus measures to boost growth. The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 48.8, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday, the lowest reading since December 2022 and weaker than the median estimate of 49.5 in a Bloomberg survey of economists. A reading below 50 signals contraction. A non-manufacturing gauge of activity in the services and construction sectors slid to 54.5 from 56.4, also below expectations.  

UK's Worsening Confidence

UK business confidence fell for the first time in three months as faster-than-expected inflation figures weighed on firms' sentiment about the economy, a survey by Lloyds Banking Group showed. The bank's Business Barometer showed business confidence fell 5 points in May from the month before to 28%, driven by the outlook for the wider economy. The net balance of companies expecting to raise prices in the next year slid 1 point to 56%, well above the pre-pandemic average. The survey suggests further upward pressure on prices, adding to concerns at the Bank of England about rising costs. That may add to the risk of further interest-rate increases.

Goldman Job Cuts

Goldman Sachs is mulling another round of job cuts amid a muted dealmaking environment that has dented revenues across Wall Street. The investment bank is working on what would be its third round of job cuts in under a year, according to people with knowledge of the plans. The firm eliminated several hundred roles in September, followed by one of its biggest ever rounds of retrenchments when it cut about 3,200 positions in January. The moves this time are expected to affect less than 250 people and will include more-senior employees, one of the people said, asking not to be named discussing private matters. 

Coming Up...

European equity futures struggled in Asian trading, indicating a soft opening for the region's blue chips. Data set for release Wednesday include German, French and Italian inflation figures, which are all expected to moderate. Turkey will release first-quarter GDP data, which is forecast to stay at an annualized 3.5%.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours

And finally, this is what Nour is interested in this morning

Copper is headed for more declines on concern over slowing economic growth in its biggest consumer, and the green energy transition is unlikely to save it.

Weak economic data from China, the largest consumer of copper, has played a significant role in driving prices lower, with disappointing domestic demand for the metal. To cope with this, Chinese smelters have increased exports, which helps replenish inventories elsewhere but further contributes to the decline in prices.

There is a bearish sentiment among funds and investors, with short positions now outweighing longs for the first time in almost three years. Without significant infrastructure stimulus from China or supportive measures from the US Federal Reserve, there is limited short-term support for copper prices.

Supply dynamics have also influenced copper's recent performance. Key mining companies have resolved their challenges, leading to increased supply. This resolution of disputes, such as those involving First Quantum Minerals and China's CMOC Group, is expected to bring additional copper to the market.

While the energy transition is a long-term factor supporting copper, its impact on prices has not been the primary driver in the short term. The unpredictable nature of the global economy since the pandemic makes it challenging to accurately forecast when demand for copper from these sources will create substantial deficits and drive prices higher.

Nour Al Ali is an Editor on the Markets Live blog on the Bloomberg Terminal, based in London. Follow her on Twitter at @NoorAlAli

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