| The more the S&P 500 goes up, the less people trust it, Washington's office vacancies hit property values and China's consumer-driven growth boosts the world economy. — David Goodman Climbing a wall of worry is one thing. Scaling the towering monolith of skepticism that currently comprises Wall Street's view of markets takes uncommon courage. The more the S&P 500 goes up — and it's risen 6% in a month — the less people trust it. Hedge funds have been loading up bets against US stocks, and a model kept by Goldman Sachs shows mutual fund and futures-market outflows suggest that rather than rise, the index should have been down 3% over the past three months. "Being bullish today is a very lonely proposition," said Eric Diton, president and managing director of the Wealth Alliance. Brookfield funds have defaulted on a $161.4 million mortgage for a dozen office buildings, mostly around Washington, DC, as rising vacancies hit property values. The loan transferred to a special servicer who is working with "the borrower to execute a pre-negotiation agreement and to determine the path forward," according to a filing on the commercial mortgage-backed security. Some landlords are defaulting on debt as borrowing costs surge and the prospects of filling up office towers wanes given the rise in remote and hybrid work. Those trends have weighed on values, with prices on office properties falling about 25% in the past year, according to Green Street. China's economy grew at the fastest pace in a year in the first quarter, putting Beijing on track to meet its growth goal for the year without adding major stimulus, while also helping to cushion the global economy against a downturn. Gross domestic product expanded 4.5% last quarter from a year earlier, official data showed Tuesday, beating economists' expectations. Hitting a 5% target this year would make China, alongside India, the largest contributors to global growth in 2023, accounting for about half of the expansion, according to the International Monetary Fund. That data helped European stocks edge higher on Tuesday, while US futures rose. Luxury companies gained on the prospects of increased consumer spending in China and travel shares rose after EasyJet said bookings remained strong. The dollar weakened, Treasuries were little changed, and European bonds fell. Is the currency market over-pricing or under-pricing the Fed path? How much longer will the dollar dominate the global currency world? Share your views in our latest MLIV Pulse survey. The big events of the day comes from bank earnings, with Goldman Sachs and Bank of America among the firms reporting their latest numbers. The US also publishes housing starts figures on an otherwise quiet day for data. Later Fed Governor Michelle Bowman discusses considerations for a central bank digital currency at an event in Washington. Here's what caught our eye over the past 24 hours: There are a few things striking to me about the market right now. The first is that stocks are doing well. 2023 continues to be a great year. The S&P 500 is already up over 8%, while the NASDAQ is already up over 16%. If you just stopped things here, 2023 is a winner. The other thing that's striking is how much negativity there is. Rallies are always hated these days. And sentiment is always an imprecise thing to measure. But the latest Bank of America fund manager survey shows that among active managers, exposure to equities, relative to bonds just hit its lowest level since 2009. The survey never got anywhere near this bad during even the pandemic period, which is hard to believe. Read Sagarika Jaisinghani full writeup of the survey here. Meanwhile it remains the case there's been a big divergence between stocks and bonds since the SVB blowup. The S&P 500 (white line) is well above its levels from early March, while the yield on the 3m-2y spread remains in a deep inversion, signifying meaningful expectations of cuts in the months ahead. Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on Twitter @TheStalwart. | 
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