Wednesday, April 19, 2023

5 things to start your day

Good morning. Macron's plan for Ukraine, the Fed's Beige Book sees stalled US economy and Tesla will cut prices again. Here's what people ar

Good morning. Macron's plan for Ukraine, the Fed's Beige Book sees stalled US economy and Tesla will cut prices again. Here's what people are talking about. 

Under Fire

French President Emmanuel Macron's push to enlist China's help to sketch out parameters for possible talks between Russia and Ukraine has drawn criticism from some allies who think that such an effort is premature and fear it could undermine European unity. Macron's strategy, which envisions a framework for talks between Moscow and Kyiv as soon as this summer if all goes well, may muddy the water regarding Ukraine's demand that Russia relinquish all Ukrainian territory, according to officials in some European capitals. Some have expressed skepticism that China can serve as a neutral intermediary given its "no-limits friendship" with Russia.

Beige Book

The US economy stalled in recent weeks, with hiring and inflation slowing and access to credit narrowing, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts. It may add to concerns that the economy is slipping into recession and likely reinforces the chances that Fed policymakers will pause their run of interest-rate hikes following an expected quarter-point increase at the next gathering in May. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams said that the recent stress may make it more challenging for households and businesses to access credit.

Bye, London

Meta Platforms is planning to cut or relocate its London-based Instagram employees, according to a person familiar with the matter. The London office became a center for growth for the social-media app when its leader, Adam Mosseri, moved there temporarily last year. Mosseri plans to relocate to the US, along with the staffers who aren't laid off, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the decision hasn't been made public. Meta recently said it was set to start cutting jobs across the company as it restructured teams and works toward founder Mark Zuckerberg's goal of greater efficiency this year.

Not Done Yet

Elon Musk signaled Tesla will continue to cut prices to stoke demand for its electric vehicles, even at the expense of its industry-leading profit margins. Musk argued he has good reasons for doing so, saying Wednesday that Tesla can financially withstand price cuts, giving it the upper hand against rivals. The price drops have been dramatic. The base price of the Model 3 has now dipped below $40,000 in the US for the first time in years, a roughly $7,000 cut from the start of the year. Investors weren't so sure, sending the company's stock lower in aftermarket trading.

Coming Up…

European shares are poised for a tepid start as investors continue to assess the outlook for interest rates and corporate earnings. The ECB issues a report on its March policy meeting. Expected data include Spain trade balance, France business confidence and PPI inflation for Germany and Portugal. There's a deluge of earnings ahead, with Volvo, Sartorius Stedim Biotech and Nokia among the companies set to report. French luxury brands LVMH and Hermes hold AGMs.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. 

  • Barclays to shut 21 ETNs a year after ``staggering'' note blunder
  • HSBC's fight with top shareholder intensifies before key vote.
  • TD spots red flag not seen since 2007 in corporate bond market.
  • Airlines will hike ticket prices to pay for costly sustainable fuel.
  • Germany draws up €2 billion state fund to secure key commodities.
  • Credit Suisse veteran banker Alois Mueller said to retire from lender.
  • Italy eyes Taiwan chip deals ahead of decision on China pact.

And finally, here's what Eddie is interested in this morning

Firmer cable and rising UK stocks briefly sparked hope of a renaissance for Great Britain, but persistently high inflation, a sputtering housing market and public-sector strikes are putting paid to that idea.

The cross currents swirling around the island nation are powerful. Wednesday's data showed inflation remained in double digits in March, a higher-than-forecast reading that will boost the case for further rate hikes. That in turn will put pressure on the middle class' primary means of measuring their wealth, namely house prices. Sales of London new homes in the first quarter slumped by 39% compared to a year earlier. And faced with a cost-of-living crisis and perceptions of their own shrinking wealth, doctors and other workers may well feel justified in digging their heels in for significantly higher wages. Which feeds back into inflation, which forces the BOE to...etc.

In terms of asset prices, that augers for a continuation of trend too. UK stocks are less rates sensitive than the long-duration tech companies that dominate US indices. They're also very global in focus, bringing shelter for investors worried about the state of the local economy. A firmer pound will be a headwind for stocks earning the bulk of their top line from international sales though. And with inflation topping that of its peers -- only Sweden in the G-10 had a higher year-on-year CPI reading -- pressure from the Bank of England may well make currency strength the dominant theme in the UK in coming months.

Eddie van der Walt is Deputy Managing Editor of the Markets Live blog on the Bloomberg Terminal, based in London. Follow him on Twitter at @EdVanDerWalt.

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