| Good morning. A production cut by OPEC+, a bleak outlook for UBS employees and more travel chaos for Britons. Here's what people are talking about. OPEC+ announced a surprise oil production cut of more than one million barrels a day, abandoning previous assurances that it would hold supply steady and posing a new risk for the global economy. It's a significant reduction for a market where — despite the recent price fluctuations — supply was looking tight for the latter part of the year. Oil rallied as much as 8% at the open on Monday, adding to inflationary pressures across the world that may force central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer and crimp economic growth. UBS will cut its workforce by between 20% and 30% after completing its takeover of Credit Suisse, SonntagsZeitung reported. As many as 11,000 employees will be laid off in Switzerland and another 25,000 worldwide, the Swiss newspaper said, citing an unidentified senior manager at UBS. The two lenders together employed almost 125,000 people at the end of 2022 — about 30% of them in the home country. In a separate development, Switzerland's Office of the Attorney General said Sunday it had opened a probe into the takeover. Tesla reported record deliveries in the first quarter, though fell short of the pace required to meet Elon Musk's long-held goal of 50% annual growth. The electric vehicle pioneer delivered 422,875 cars worldwide last quarter after it cut prices to appeal to consumers buffeted by rising interest rates and inflation. The results, posted Sunday, came in just ahead of the median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, for 421,164 vehicles to have been shipped. The record quarterly sales received a muted reaction in Asia, where shares of Tesla's key suppliers and rivals were mixed. Travelers trying to leave the UK by ferry faced delays into the night at the country's busiest port, as a weekend of travel chaos threatened to spill into Easter week and prompted a renewed debate about the impact of Brexit. Coach passengers were warned they would be held for hours within a "buffer zone" inside the port before they could transit passport control and cross the English Channel. Further complicating the travel picture, staff at UK passport offices will begin a five-week strike on Monday. The Dover disruption renews the focus on the impact of Brexit after air and sea delays in 2021 and 2022 were largely blamed on Covid-19, workforce shortages and French border procedure. European shares are headed for a flat start after a rally in oil prices weighed on US stock futures. French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visit China in a bid to push Beijing to help end Russia's war in Ukraine. Some members of the Public and Commercial Services union go on strike in the UK. Data include Swiss CPI inflation and French budget balance. Burkhalter Holding delivers earnings results. This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. OPEC+ has stepped up to do exactly what cartels do, protecting prices with a surprise production cut. The implications for oil prices are probably far greater than for inflation, and by extension, shouldn't be read as a turning point for rates. Nor is it a definitive recessionary signal of demand slowing in the wake of bank failures. The organization announced a cut of more than one million barrels a day, abandoning previous assurances that it would hold supply steady. Describing this as either a shock or a risk to global growth seems a stretch. Consensus for oil prices rises as the year progresses -- particularly on China demand -- was the base case anyway. The median Brent forecast among oil watchers was for the price to climb to $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter and our Macro View column at the start of the year argued that any temporary price weakness would lead to production cuts. More to the point, recent signs were that supply remained relatively tight -- with Brent remaining in backwardation and Goldman Sachs global head of commodities Jeff Currie arguing investors should buy the dip on Friday. The point is that a recovery in oil prices was already widely expected. As such, the knock-on implications for inflation and rates should be limited, beyond short-term reactions. And the recent price action that prompted the intervention was more a reflection of macro traders getting nervous on US growth than it was of weakening demand. Eddie van der Walt is Deputy Managing Editor of the Markets Live blog on the Bloomberg Terminal, based in London. Follow him on Twitter at @EdVanDerWalt. | 
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