Sunday, April 2, 2023

5 things to start your day

UBS to slash up to 30% of workforce. OPEC+ announces shock oil production cut. Tesla delivers record number of new cars. Here's what you nee

UBS to slash up to 30% of workforce. OPEC+ announces shock oil production cut. Tesla delivers record number of new cars. Here's what you need to know today.

Job Cuts

UBS will cut its workforce by between 20% and 30% after completing its takeover of Credit Suisse, Swiss newspaper SonntagsZeitung reported. As many as 11,000 employees will be laid off in Switzerland, and another 25,000 worldwide, the newspaper said. Meanwhile, the Swiss Attorney General's Office has opened an investigation into the government-brokered takeover of Credit Suisse and is gathering evidence to identify possible crimes. The prosecutor didn't specify whether it's looking for breaches of law by government officials, bank executives or journalists who reported on the closed-door negotiations.

Oil Surprise

OPEC+ announced a surprise oil production cut of more than 1 million barrels a day, abandoning previous assurances that it would hold supply steady and posing a new risk for the global economy. It's a significant reduction for a market where — despite the recent price fluctuations — supply was looking tight for the latter part of the year. Oil futures soared as much as 8% at the open on Monday, adding to inflationary pressures across the world that may force central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer and crimp economic growth. The White House said the new cuts were ill-advised. 

New Record

Tesla delivered 422,875 cars worldwide in the first quarter, setting a record after it cut prices to appeal to consumers buffeted by rising interest rates and faster inflation. Tesla doesn't break out sales by region, but the US and China are its largest markets. The overwhelming majority of sales were of the Model 3 sedan and Y crossover. Tesla slashed prices early in the year to boost demand after fourth-quarter deliveries disappointed investors. That sparked a price war in China that threatens to drive some rivals out of business.

Fresh Risks

US equity futures slipped and the yen weakened as traders rushed to recalibrate for renewed inflationary risks after OPEC+ announced its oil production cut. Contracts for the S&P 500 fell about 0.2% Monday as positive sentiment from Friday evaporated, while futures for the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.3%. The S&P 500 had jumped 3.5% last week — the most since November. Bitcoin notched its best quarter since March 2021 with a gain of about 70%.

Diplomacy Time

China is ready to work with Malaysia and other Southeast Asian nations to speed up consultation for a South China Sea code of conduct, Xinhua reported. Beijing is prepared to collaborate to jointly maintain peace and stability of the area, Premier Li Qiang was cited as saying during a meeting with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have been working for almost 20 years to establish a code of conduct covering the disputed body of water. China asserts rights to more than 80% of it. Meanwhile, China's Foreign Minister Qin Gang has urged Japan to refrain from supporting US efforts to suppress the Chinese semiconductor industry.

What we've been reading

And finally, here's what Garfield's interested in this morning

Bonds just completed their best back-to-back quarterly gain in seven years. Bloomberg's gauge of global fixed-income assets generated a 7.7% return since Sept. 30, even if the second three-month period in that stretch was a wild ride at times. There's still plenty of nervousness out there though, with investors once more betting that policymakers are about to pivot toward rate cuts despite resilient inflation pressures. OPEC+'s decision to cut oil production by 1 million barrels a day is likely to underscore such concerns.

Yields declined on Friday, as did trader anxiety, but the latter in particular remains at elevated levels. Swaptions still show expectations for swings in two-year yields are way higher than they have been at any stage since the depths of the 2008 turmoil — and the gap to still-elevated 10-year swaptions is also the widest since then. Bonds remain on edge about how aggressive the Federal Reserve will be, and how much damage the economy will end up enduring. 

Garfield Reynolds is Chief Rates Correspondent for Bloomberg News in Asia, based in Sydney.

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