Crypto News: Supply Lines: Signs of a rebound

For many weeks, anticipation has been running hot that China's reopening would bring a tangible economic lift across Asia and perhaps the rest of the world.

That day seems to have finally have arrived, with purchasing managers' indexes — especially from China, but also beyond — showing the first glimpses that the world's No. 2 economy will start to lift orders in other corners of the globe.

The Bloomberg Trade Tracker's four sentiment indicators all improved in February, and five of the Tracker's 10 gauges are now in line with their long-run averages, compared with just one at the start of the year.

Source: Bloomberg Trade Tracker

A note of caution with trade and shipping indicators in the first quarter: Lunar New Year is one big special factor that always tugs on the data and makes for misleading reads. This year, with that holiday period landing unusually early in January, February's figures allowed for a cleaner read.

China's new exports measure on the Tracker, which takes into account views on the outlook from about 3,000 manufacturing firms, shot up above its long-run average after being in the doldrums the prior two months. The parallel gauge for the US, which surveys more than 800 managers across 18 industries, also improved in February.

More encouraging, there were brighter signs in Singapore and Germany. The Asian city-state's electronics gauge has shaken off a challenging tech cycle and improved for a second month, into average range on the Tracker. And the German expectations index from Ifo's survey of about 9,000 firms grinded higher for a fifth month.

The broad uptick in the PMI and other sentiment measures bodes well for brighter readings from ports and key export markets on the Trade Tracker. Shipping watchers already were counting on some easing in logjams that should smooth supply chains further into the post-Covid era.

China's official trade data for February are due out in coming days, and the numbers will be scrutinized for any post-Covid bounce. But already signs are emerging that some resilience in demand should help bolster goods trade in these uncertain times.

Additional Reading:

—Michelle Jamrisko in Singapore

Working Around Sanctions | Russia looks to be successfully working around European Union and Group of Seven sanctions to secure crucial semiconductors and other technologies for its war in Ukraine, according to a senior European diplomat. Russian imports in general have largely returned to their pre-war 2020 levels and analysis of trade data suggests that advanced chips and integrated circuits made in the EU and other allied nations are being shipped to Russia through third countries such as Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Kazakhstan, the diplomat said, pointing to those private assessments. (Read the full story here.)

Safety concerns | A second freight train derailment in Ohio within a month is giving new impetus for rail safety legislation in Congress, as Democrats and Republicans prepare to grill Norfolk Southern CEO Alan Shaw when he testifies to a Senate committee Thursday. Who owns train cars? Often not the railroad, Bloomberg Opinion's Brooke Sutherland writes.
Ocean deal | An agreement reached Saturday night on the wording of a historic United Nations treaty to protect marine biodiversity could mark the end of the unregulated exploitation of the ocean, an increasingly urgent concern as climate impacts multiply.
Sailing again | A container ship that ran aground in the Suez Canal has been successfully re-floated. Separately, the Dutch salvage firm that helped dislodge the Ever Given from the waterway in 2021 is fighting the vessel's owners in a London court.
Deal help | The European Union is seeking to clinch the outlines of an accord with the US as soon as this week that would give the bloc access to some benefits included in President Joe Biden's massive green investment plan. Meanwhile, Biden's trade chief said that she's confident talks underway with the EU will resolve the bloc's concerns.
Build halt | Amazon.com is pausing construction on its sprawling second headquarters near Washington, a decision that coincides with the company's deepest job cuts yet and a reassessment of office needs to account for remote work.
Sales gain | Volkswagen expects to sidestep a slowing economy with a jump in sales this year as Europe's biggest carmaker benefits from full order books and better access to semiconductors.
Strikes again | Strikes in France to protest against government pension reforms hit power giant Electricite de France for a third consecutive day after workers cut output at a number of nuclear reactors.

Weak phase | French shipping giant CMA CGM warned of a steep drop in demand so far this year, extending a slump that led to a more than halving of quarterly profit.
Slow drop | Rates for containers departing Shanghai now sit just 16% above 2019's average, a gap that continues to narrow. Tactical decisions such as blank sailings have so far failed to arrest the slide in spot rates. The pace of new container ship deliveries is expected to pick up rapidly from March, further pressuring rates, Bloomberg Intelligence says.
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