Wednesday, March 1, 2023

Brussels Edition: Ugly numbers

The latest inflation figures for the euro area due today probably won't please the ECB

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

The latest inflation figures for the euro area due today probably won't please the ECB. Data for Spain, France and Germany already came in hotter than expected this week, leaving little optimism that a broad slowdown in price pressures is underway. While the headline number for February may decline thanks to lower energy costs, the core measure that strips out such items is forecast to hold at a record 5.3%. This is boosting demands of more hawkish central bankers like Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, who said yesterday that more "significant" rate increases may be necessary after a planned hike this month. His French counterpart Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the ECB must remain "vigilant" in light of recent data.

Lyubov Pronina and Alexander Weber

What's Happening

Repair Mission | The EU is scrambling to salvage a plan to effectively ban new combustion-engine cars by 2035 after Germany and Italy threatened to block an agreement. Germany is seeking assurances that there will be an exemption to the rules for e-fuels, we're told. The last-minute intervention has thrown what would normally be a formality into disarray. 

Rearming Kyiv | The EU is set to propose a three-track plan to provide Ukraine with much-needed ammunition in response to some member states' calls to ramp up the continent's production capacity, but the amount of funding remains unclear. The plan we saw calls for immediate transfers of ammo from existing stocks or pending orders, using a joint procurement framework and ramping up industrial capacity.

Coalition Talks | German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party will begin coalition talks with the Christian Democrats to run Berlin following their defeat in last month's election, shunning their current alliance with the Greens and Left party. Mayor Franziska Giffey, whose SPD was beaten by the CDU and only narrowly took second place, said a coalition with the Christian Democrats offered the best chance of a "new start" with a genuine focus on tackling the city's problems.

Blacklist Exit | Russian critics of Vladimir Putin have spent the past year pressing the US and its allies to impose sanctions on thousands of Kremlin officials and business tycoons. Now they want a clear way for those who come out against the war to get off the blacklists. As the war drags on, many tycoons are challenging the legal basis for including them on Western sanctions lists. None have yet succeeded. 

Canned Food | Faced with record food inflation, a third of Spanish households say they've reduced consumption of fresh meat and fish, turning instead to cheaper canned and frozen products. About two-thirds of households now buy more items on sale and generic products.

In Case You Missed It

Green Standard | EU negotiators reached a deal to establish a green bond standard, giving investors long-awaited clarity that their money is aligned with the region's climate ambitions. Companies that use the standard will have to prove that the proceeds from their green bonds are in line with the bloc's list of environmentally friendly activities. The rulebook is intended to help creditors navigate a market with annual issuance of $500 billion.

Macron Reactors | France sees "no problem" funding the six new nuclear reactors Emmanuel Macron has proposed building, a project that by one estimate could cost at least €51 billion. The French president made a U-turn last year on a previous pledge to cut back his nation's reliance on nuclear energy by promising to build at least six new nuclear reactors slated to enter into service from 2035, with up to 14 reactors in total.

Iran Expulsion | Iran expelled two German diplomats after Berlin condemned Tehran for sentencing to death a German-Iranian political activist on terrorism charges. Yesterday's move mirrors the expulsion of two Iranian diplomats by Germany after Iran handed the death penalty to the US-based activist arrested while traveling in Dubai in 2020.

Budget Revision | Italy's budget deficits for the past three years were revised drastically higher after a reassessment of tax breaks including the so-called superbonus showed a bigger immediate hit to public finances. The new figures were released a month after EU statistics officials first alerted Giorgia Meloni's coalition to the move.

NATO Progress | Finland's parliament ratified NATO's treaties as the Nordic nation prepares to join the defense alliance, seeking to put momentum back in the bloc's enlargement. The move technically decouples Finland's bid from Sweden's, potentially enabling Helsinki's entry into the alliance earlier should Turkey continue to block Stockholm.

Chart of the Day

Progress toward gender pay parity has slowed across the EU, which means women in some countries could be waiting until at least the turn of the century for equal pay. A woman born this year could only expect to earn the same as a man around the same time she's old enough to retire, according to Bloomberg calculations and Eurostat figures updated yesterday. The average gap between men and women's gross hourly earnings stood at 12.7% at the end of 2021, narrowing just 0.2 percentage points from the year before. A dozen countries marked Nov. 15 last year as Equal Pay Day — the date at which women would "work for free" for the rest of the year compared to their male counterparts.  

Today's Agenda

  • EU competition ministers meet in Brussels
  • European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson
  • Competition chief Margrethe Vestager speaks at conference on antitrust organized by Keystone Europe and meets with US assistant attorney general Jonathan Kanter
  • EU Vice President Maros Sefcovic chairs meeting of EU Energy Platform on joint gas purchasing
  • EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell in India for meeting of G-20 foreign ministers

Like the Brussels Edition?


Don't keep it to yourself. Colleagues and friends can sign up here.

How are we doing? We want to hear what you think about this newsletter. Let our Brussels bureau chief know.

No comments:

Post a Comment

How I Plan To Trade The “Dip and Rip” Safely

it’s about increasing your odds                                                 Tips, tricks, tutorials and even trade ideas? Get them a...