Tuesday, March 7, 2023

Amazon's HQ2 fiasco has politicians cancelling their Prime accounts

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a crystal ball of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here. The bright side of Amazon's HQ2 saga. Younger

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a crystal ball of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here.

Today's Agenda

The Ghost of HQ2

Hahaha, remember that time when Jeff Bezos spent nine months tormenting 20 cities that were on his HQ2 shortlist only to "pause construction" on the whole thing five years later? You really can't make this stuff up:

If you recall, in 2018, "pro-business" politicians obsessed over their top-secret plans to lure Amazon to their city. Dazzled — blinded? — by the promise of 50,000 new jobs, they launched a bidding war that included insanely generous packages of tax incentives and infrastructure spending. Texas threw in a $15 billion bullet train! And New York assured a helipad because, well, Bezos wasn't about to take the No. 7 train. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez called the whole thing a scam of public funds, which resulted in this billboard-sized criticism of her in Times Square. For a time, the race to become Amazon's second headquarters took up nearly every pixel on our phone screens. There was no escaping it:

And all that for … what? Two office towers occupied by  8,000 workers? Tyler Cowen says Amazon's decision to pause its plans to further expand its HQ2 campus in Northern Virginia signals the end of an era for regional development. After this fiasco, Tyler says, politicians will think twice before spending their reputational capital on plans that could lead nowhere.

In the time that it took Amazon to complete its American Idol-style hunt to find the next superstar city and build its headquarters in it, the lifestyles of urbanites had completely changed. Covid-19 closed a lot of offices, and a lot of people realized they didn't need to live near their workplaces. As remote work became the norm, cities were no longer the only meccas of big business. For a time, the hybrid shift benefited Amazon's e-commerce and cloud operations. Big Tech hired like crazy to meet the relentless demands of consumers. And now, companies are paying the price for their frenzy:

Amazon's layoffs will ultimately total about 18,000 workers, and Meta is about to lay off thousands more employees in its second series of job cuts in less than five months. The era of cities wooing tech companies with sweeteners is clearly over. Let's hope the ghost of HQ2 is done haunting us, too.

A Crisis of Colons

Far be it from me to ask you to rewrite your List of Things That Give Me a Sense of Existential Dread, but this chart about young people getting colon cancer more often should probably be near the top:

People under the age of 55 accounted for 20% of colon cancers in 2019 — a percentage that has nearly doubled since 1995. Lisa Jarvis says the alarming increase will take years of epidemiological research to unravel.

In the meantime, we need to raise awareness about the benefits of screening earlier. "Two-thirds of young people are coming in with cancers that have spread to other parts of their body," she writes. Understandably, colon cancer is not top-of-mind for people in their 30s and 40s who reasonably imagine they have years life ahead of them. If they're looking up their symptoms on WebMD, a doomsday diagnosis of rectal cancer isn't going to be the most obvious choice in the laundry list of potential ailments — unless you're a hypochondriac. And it's also not top-of-mind for doctors, either: One study found that it took 40% longer for younger people to get a correct diagnosis. Getting younger people screened for early onset colon cancer is the only way out of this mess. Read the whole thing.

Telltale Charts

The dark green dots on this chart are smack dab in the middle of Stagflation City — a place that India has historically avoided — until now. Andy Mukherjee writes that "the twin challenges posed by more expensive raw materials and a stronger dollar" are hurting India's growth potential.

We're taught from a young age that corruption is capital-B Bad. That's mostly true, but Eduardo Porter says that corruption — in small, gingerly applied doses — can actually contribute to economic growth. "Bribery can grease the bureaucratic cogs," allowing businesses to streamline operations — as China has demonstrated for years.  Latin America could certainly stand to learn a thing or two from the model:

The entire continent of Europe somehow managed to duck when Russian President Vladimir Putin threw a grenade at its energy grid last year … only to be pummeled by a new economic threat in 2023: recession. "The cracks are already visible," Lionel Laurent writes, arguing that jittery central bankers have put the euro zone on a fast track to recession:

Bonus Listening

As you read this newsletter, countless people are harnessing the power of ChatGPT. Perhaps a 10th grader is reading a "To Kill a Mockingbird" synopsis. A writer might be sifting through press releases with ease. Or a chef is cooking up bizarre cocktail recipes. The free, ask-me-anything tool — while fun! — is just the beginning of what is shaping up to be an intense battle between artificial intelligence and humanity. Will we stay in control of the bots, or will they end up controlling usTim O'Brien looks for answers in the latest episode of Crash Course, in which he speaks with Parmy Olson and Tyler Cowen.

Further Reading

Nearly 50,000 people died in Turkey's earthquake. Erdogan owes the victims an explanation— Bloomberg's editorial board

This is your monthly reminder that Jerome Powell does not have, and never will have, a crystal ball. — Jonathan Levin

The UK — a nation that has benefited enormously from migration — wants to deport migrants— Therese Raphael

Iran is getting frighteningly close to being able to build a nuclear bomb— Hal Brands

The new world order is a mess. Businesses that crave order and simplicity aren't going to be pleased. — Adrian Wooldridge

Young Nigerians are a political force like no other. Let's just hope they show up for the gubernatorial vote. — Bobby Ghosh

State and local governments are still flush with cash, which will make Jerome Powell's job more difficult.  — Karl Smith

ICYMI 

violent kidnapping in Mexico.

France's pension protests.

More snow on the beach.

Elon Musk's bad thing:

Kickers

SunnyD is selling a vodka seltzer.

A whiskey fungus is overtaking Tennesseee.

The world's greatest dogsledder is ruthless.

NYC's megajail is swallowing Chinatown.

Notes:  Please send SunnyD and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

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