Friday, November 15, 2024

The London Rush: That flat Friday feeling

UK economy slows more than expected

Morning, I'm Louise Moon from Bloomberg UK's breaking news team, bringing you up to speed on today's top business stories.

Anyone else feel like it's been a long week? Ready to flick on the heating and put your feet up? Well, have comfort in knowing you won't be alone with that flat Friday feeling.

Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves are sure to be disappointed with economic data this morning — the first set of quarterly growth figures to cover their time in power since July's election.

The economy slowed more sharply than expected in the third quarter, with GDP up just 0.1%. It unexpectedly shrank in September alone, seemingly hurt by uncertainty ahead of the budget. It's a pretty grey start to the PM's tenure — and Labour's promise of growth, growth, growth.

While economists still expect growth to pick up next year, general sentiment hasn't exactly brightened. Businesses are worried after a budget packed with tax rises.

The CBI this morning said it set off "warning lights," while the IoD said Reeves' reforms on pensions, repeated in her Mansion House speech last night,  "sit uneasily alongside budget measures that will more rapidly and certainly damage investment, employment and growth."

What's your take? Ping me on X, LinkedIn or drop me an email at lmoon13@bloomberg.net. Oh, and do subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted business journalism on the UK, and beyond.

What We're Watching

Electronics maker Volex has bid twice for TT Electronics, with the latest effort valuing its rival at £249 million. Both were rejected but Volex has until Dec. 13 to make a firm offer. TT's shares soared 29%.

Ofgem has announced £2 billion of funding for a proposed new subsea and underground 196 km cable, which it says will help power up to two million homes with homegrown energy from wind.

Vinted — Europe's largest online marketplace for second-hand clothes valued at €5 billion — is ruling out an IPO, for now. Based in Lithuania and popular in Britain, it wants to focus on expanding beyond fashion, and says that is easier with just a few investors.

Plus, Rachel Reeves has freed up as much as £10 billion via a change to the way the BOE's bond portfolio is managed. The Treasury will transfer less money to the central bank, reducing the buffer held to protect against unexpected losses on its holdings.

Global Catch Up

Markets Today: September Slump

Here's your daily snap analysis from Bloomberg UK's Markets Today blog:

If Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer were hoping to add credibility to their growth-driving ambitions, today's weak GDP data is not going to be helpful. It's the first economic output report which covers their time in government — with the quarter starting just a few days before the election — but ends before their October budget.

As such, if today's report is a reflection on the country's reaction to the government — which is by no means a given — it is more about anxiety amid speculation about what might be in the budget, rather than the measures it contained. 

September, the drag on the overall quarterly reading, was full of warnings about "tough decisions" and speculation about which taxes would be hiked. For businesses, those fears came to fruition a month later. So, for the impact of Labour's budget day announcements, next quarter's GDP report will be one to watch.

Morwenna Coniam

Check Bloomberg UK's Markets Today blog for updates all day.

What's Next

The earnings season rumbles on. Ones to look out for next week include Imperial Brands, Informa, British Land, Severn TrentBritvic, Halfords, Crest Nicholson, Mitie, Jet2 and JD Sports.

Plus, inflation stats for October: CPI is expected to rise to 2.1%.

$ports Report

Hi, I'm David. I cover the money behind sport — and it was made evident this week just how severe the legal case is against Manchester City.

At least four rivals have lodged legal notices reserving the right to seek compensation if Man City are found guilty of charges for 115 alleged breaches of the league's financial rules.

Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur — four of the so-called traditional big six — formally registered possible compensation claims via arbitration ahead of a potential statute of limitations deadline last week, according to The Times. Manchester United, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur declined to comment when called by Bloomberg, while Arsenal did not reply. Man City have denied the charges totally.

Manchester City celebrate after winning the UEFA Champions League final in 2023.  Photographer: FRANCK FIFE/AFP

The four teams are obvious candidates to argue for compensation given that at the time (the breaches date back to 2009), they were battling with City for the top league spot, or a place in the top four, which provides qualification for the lucrative European Champions League.

But others might also feel they have a claim, too. What about Leicester City, who finished fifth place in the League and just missed out on the Champions League in 2019/20 and 2020/21, for example? They also declined to comment.

It's often not the winning of a trophy that brings the most money, but the securing of a place in Europe, which is worth millions the following season.

In football, there's also a momentum that comes with winning: enhanced sponsorship, attendances and corporate hospitality revenues. If City lose, expect the country's lawyers to be working on the compensation cases for many months ahead.

— David Hellier

For more on the Business of Sport, check out the team's Friday newsletter.

Pub Quiz

The trailer for the fourth Bridget Jones film (Mad About the Boy) came out this week, with a release date of Valentine's Day next year. Three actors in previous Bridget Jones films — Jim Broadbent (her dad), Gemma Jones (her mum) and Emma Thompson (her gynaecologist) — were also all cast as staff in which other British classic?

Renée Zellweger and Colin Firth in Bridget Jones's Diary.

[Yesterday's answer: Bob Geldof and Midge Ure first wrote the song Do They Know It's Christmas? in 1984.]

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