Thursday, March 2, 2023

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Good morning. Central bankers warn of higher rates, Citigroup cuts headcount and a veteran emerging markets investor makes a $1.9 billion be

Good morning. Central bankers warn of higher rates, Citigroup cuts headcount and a veteran emerging markets investor makes a $1.9 billion bet on Adani stock. Here's what people are talking about.

Interest rates

Two Federal Reserve policymakers cautioned that recent stronger-than-expected readings on the US economy could push them to raise interest rates by more than previously expected. In remarks Thursday, Governor Christopher Waller said that if payroll and inflation data cool after hot prints in January, "then I would endorse raising the target range for the federal funds rate a couple more times, to a projected terminal rate between 5.1% and 5.4%." Separately, European Central Bank Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch said market bets for interest rates to reach a 4% peak may prove accurate if underlying price pressures remain elevated.

Citi Cuts

Citigroup is cutting hundreds of jobs across the company, with the Wall Street giant's investment banking division among those affected. The cuts amount to less than 1% of Citigroup's 240,000-person workforce, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named discussing personnel information. Staffers across the firm's operations and technology organization and US mortgage-underwriting arm are also among those affected. The move comes just weeks after cuts at JPMorgan  and Goldman Sachs. 

Adani Investment

One of the biggest names in emerging-market investing is betting $1.9 billion on Gautam Adani's empire, in the most significant show of support from a major money manager since a short-seller report lopped $153 billion off the Indian conglomerate's market value. Rajiv Jain's GQG Partners bought shares in four firms from an Adani family trust at discounts to Thursday's closing prices, according to a statement from Adani Group and exchange filings. Jefferies brokered the deal. 

China Reshuffle

China is about to see its biggest reshuffle in decades as a generation of internationally respected economic officials makes way for a clutch of politicians better known for strong ties with President Xi Jinping than academic credentials or overseas exposure. That prospect is ratcheting up anxiety from Wall Street and Washington to the UK and Japan, with concerns the new lineup will prove to be Xi yes-men who take China further toward state intervention and international isolation — away from the path set by a dynasty of pro-market officials that have called the shots since Deng Xiaoping first opened the door between China and the world.

Coming Up

European shares are set to gain as investors digest a fresh round of remarks from Fed officials. US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meet at the White House. ECB Governing Council members Bostjan Vasle and Madis Muller speak on inflation in Slovenia. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits Abu Dhabi. Expected data include German trade balance, Italy GDP and France industrial production. IMI, Lufthansa and Pearson report earnings results.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours

And here's what Eddie is interested in this morning

Signs of a European spring are budding in the garden, and a full-blown energy crisis has been avoided. Yet natural gas for delivery next winter remains expensive, showing that the memory, and fear, hasn't faded yet.

At the end of February, just weeks before natural gas inventories normally reach their nadir, storage facilities were more than 60% full. Only once in the past twenty years did Europe have this much gas in reserve as the end of winter approached.

And yet the front Dec contract is roughly 290% above where it averaged in 2020 and early 2021. This is probably a form of what behavioral economists call availability bias -- where investors overweight recent, shocking events in their pricing. If so, then the downtrend has a lot further to go.

This commentary first ran on Markets Live on the Bloomberg Terminal, where Eddie van der Walt is Deputy Managing Editor based in London. Follow him on Twitter at @EdVanDerWalt

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