Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Crunch time

The Readout With Ruth David

After the handshake comes (more) hard work. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has been in Belfast today, trying to win over political leaders and business on the merits of his post-Brexit deal with the European Union. Sunak will also have to woo skeptics within his party. He is scheduled to be addressing the 1922 committee of backbench Tory MPs as this email hits your inbox. The European Research Group of Brexiteer MPs is awaiting advice from its lawyers and will meet this evening. And the prospect of a sizeable parliamentary rebellion still looms, report my colleagues Ellen Milligan and Alex Wickham.

Rishi Sunak at a Q&A session with local business leaders in Northern Ireland Photographer:  Liam McBurney/AFP/Getty Images

Investors in British assets are also starting to speak out on what this means. Firms including BlackRock and Abrdn are of the view that the deal will only remove some of the uncertainty that has plagued the country since the vote to leave the European Union in 2016.

Still, the deal does go some way toward improving rock-bottom investor sentiment, write Loukia Gyftopoulou and Sagarika Jaisinghani. "If we never have to talk about Brexit again, the UK would be more investable," Man Group Chief Executive Officer Luke Ellis told Bloomberg TV today. Ellis's own fund incidentally posted $3.1 billion of net inflows last year, beating analyst estimates and defying the gloom in the hedge fund industry.

And if you're wondering what the Brexit deal means for your stock portfolio, John Stepek writes in Money Distilled: "My base case scenario is that the UK's geopolitical discount will properly start to lift this year, and as a result, the UK will lose some of its relative cheapness — particularly as the US market loses some of its growth-era sheen."

"That's a good reason to make sure you have some exposure in your portfolio," he concludes.

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What just happened

The stories you need to know about this evening

Billions on the line

As budget day draws near, the numbers of public service workers planning pay strikes is starting to swell. Some 33,000 UK civil servants today voted to strike, joining another 100,000 government employees aiming to walk out on March 15.

Economists said on Monday that Britain's economic prospects have improved enough to hand Chancellor Jeremy Hunt an extra £10 billion at the budget. And economists at the Institute for Fiscal Studies on Tuesday accused the government of engaging in "distraction" techniques by claiming pay rises would fuel inflation. Grocery inflation hit an eye-watering record of 17% this month, sending more shoppers to Aldi.

As Lucy White points out, the extra £10 billion "could be wiped out by just a small increase in market interest rates. The tight position sharpens the trade-offs facing the chancellor."

Hunt will also be mindful of a general election in the not-too-distant future, with his Conservative party still trailing Labour significantly in opinion polls. Sunak is planning a team-building away day for party MPs this week as he aims to focus on campaign strategy, Ellen and Kitty Donaldson report. 

The government has also come into a £1.2 billion windfall from an unusual short position it took in power and natural gas markets after taking over control of collapsed supplier Bulb Energy last year. The money, revealed in documents prepared for a court hearing today, could help cover the cost of the bailout, which in November was predicted to surge to £6.5 billion. And if you're interested in the details of the court battle between energy companies and the UK energy department over the bailout of Bulb, we have you covered. 

And what would a Readout be without a property piece? There's good news for homebuyers, who are seeing the best discounts in over five years as sellers cut prices, according to Zoopla. 

What it's like at Dubai's most luxury hotel

From the moment you step through the front entrance, Atlantis the Royal puts on a show. Water pours down inside glass walls, while fire periodically flashes up. The pressure to post to Instagram is immediate, because you've arrived at the self-titled "most ultraluxury" resort in the world.

Bloomberg's Lisa Fleisher reviews Atlantic the Royal, where Beyoncé broke the internet and you might just fall into a water feature. Just don't stay in your room.

The "his" bathroom in the panoramic suite of the new Atlantis the Royal hotel in Dubai. Photographer: Lisa Fleisher/Bloomberg

What you need to know tomorrow

Get ahead of the curve

ReprimandedCredit Suisse "seriously breached" rules in the Greensill case, Switzerland's banking regulator has concluded.

Causing angst. HSBC is riling Hong Kong bankers with a plan to end private offices.

"Markedly more bearish". Citigroup strategists have said that traders are piling up short bets on stocks.

Global problems mounting. As Xi Jinping prepares to begin his second decade as China's president, he is facing a much more skeptical public. 

Rebuilding investor confidence. Adani's CFO has said it isn't seeking to refinance debt or inject capital.

US-China tensions. Apple suppliers are racing to exit China, pre-empting the fallout from escalating Beijing-Washington tensions, according to AirPods maker GoerTek.

The big number 

$15 billion
The buyout of Toshiba is increasingly leaving global funds on the sidelines. 

Nuclear power's revival reaches the home of the last meltdown

One key story, every weekday

Bare vines and Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s (Tepco) Fukushima Dai-Ni nuclear power plant Photographer: Noriko Hayashi/Bloomberg

The energy crisis is reviving nuclear power around the world and forcing consumers grappling with rising bills to rethink their opposition to the technology. It's even happening in communities still contending with the impact of Japan's 2011 Fukushima meltdowns. 

Read The Big Take

Please send thoughts, tips and feedback to readout@bloomberg.net. You can follow Ruth on Twitter.

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